From now on, only 'Top-of-Mind brands that come to mind first' will survive

There is a metric that P&G, a world-leading marketing company, places great importance on.

That is the Evoked Set.

An Evoked Set is a collection of favorable options that come to mind when you try to do (or buy) something.

As a result of the progress of commoditization in all things (the feeling that it doesn't matter which one you buy), fierce price competition is occurring in every industry.

In today's world, where it has become difficult to differentiate physical products and services, the key to whether you are chosen by consumers (whether they will buy from you or continue to buy from you) depends on whether you have secured the position of being the first one they remember.

What comes to mind when you read the following sentences?

Tourist destinations in Japan you want to visit once the COVID-19 situation settles down

Restaurants, izakayas, or eateries you want to visit once the COVID-19 situation settles down

Cities you would want to live in if you were to move next

What would you buy if your vacuum cleaner broke right now?

Toothpaste

The options that just came to your mind are your Evoked Set (a collection of favorable options recalled in your mind). If only one came to mind, it means either there is only one in your Evoked Set, or it is the Top of Mind Awareness brand that comes to mind first within your Evoked Set.

The brand that comes to mind first is strong.

This is because a Top-of-Mind brand (the brand that comes to mind first) has:

・A high probability of being considered
・A high probability of being considered first
・The highest probability of being purchased after consideration
・The highest probability of being purchased repeatedly if it is a repeat purchase
・Especially in the case of online purchases, the top-of-mind brand is purchased directly

a high probability.

Understanding the Evoked Set

This is a diagram that every marketer should memorize as if they had eaten it off a memory bread.

Whether or not you keep this diagram in mind when conducting brand marketing makes a world of difference in the accuracy of identifying issues and the resolution of your strategy.

The following paper written by the great Professor Naoto Onzo in 1995 is a must-read. It is super easy to understand. It only takes 10 minutes to read, so please read it 100 million times.

For those who think, 'It's too much trouble to read a paper!', I will continue with an explanation.

First of all, while our minds are packed with a vast amount of information, brand information (information on purchase options) is surprisingly organized and stored.

Awareness Set and Unawareness Set

First, the initial stage. Whether you know it or not.

Let's think about automobile manufacturers.

Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Daihatsu, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, MINI, Volvo, Renault, Peugeot, Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Porsche, Land Rover...

Most people know almost all of these, right?

If so, these automobile manufacturers are stored in the awareness set within the 'automobile category' in your mind.

Things you don't know are not considered. If they are not considered, they will not be bought.

Therefore, this diagram shows that (in order to get people to buy) you must advance to the upper right as if in a tournament (companies and brands that advance to the upper right are the ones that are finally bought (with high probability)).

Processing Set and Non-Processing Set

The next stage. Processing set and non-processing set.

I think most people know the automobile manufacturers I mentioned earlier (they were in the awareness set).

Now, if you were asked, 'What are the differences between Renault, Peugeot, and Fiat (for example, country, design, or product features)?' would you be able to answer?

Many people might say, 'I'm not really sure.'

The difference between the processed set and the unprocessed set is 'whether you know it well or not.' If you know the product or service (awareness set) and know it well (understand the product features), it is classified as a processed set; if you know it but don't know it well (don't really understand the product features), it is classified as an unprocessed set.

Products that you know but don't understand well do not proceed to the consideration stage, so you lose at this stage.

Evoked Set

Now, for the crucial Evoked Set.

First, the processed set, which consists of things you know (awareness set) and know well (understand the product features to some extent), is classified into three categories: the evoked set, the hold set, and the rejected set.

The evoked set is defined as 'the subset of brands that a consumer recognizes in a given product class and considers for purchase.'

Since that's difficult, I call it 'a collection of favorable options for purchase.'

How many options are in this evoked set (for each category)?

According to Dr. Miller (1956), the number of stimuli that humans can accurately rank (options) is 7 plus or minus 2, which is 5 to 9.

But in reality, you don't have that many options in your head, do you? If someone asks you to name toothpaste brands, someone who can name 7 is quite a toothpaste enthusiast (they might know 5 to 10 if prompted, but there are very few products that they understand the features of (processed set) and are actually in their purchase consideration set).

According to a survey by Tribal Media House,in most product categories, there are only 3 (or 1 in some cases) in the Evoked Set.

Products or services that are not in the evoked set are not considered at the time of purchase, so you lose at that point.

I will explain the advantages of being in the Evoked Set (and conversely, the disadvantages of not being in it) later.

Hold Set

The hold set is a collection of items that you know (awareness set) and understand the product features to some extent (processed set), but have not included in the top 3 Evoked Set.

This is due to reasons such as the price being high relative to the specifications, no one around you buying it, or not having enough information to consider purchasing it.

This is a 'missed opportunity position' where you have successfully advanced through brand communication from the awareness set to the processing set, but you are losing because you have not made it into the Evoked Set.

Rejection Set

The rejection set consists of a group of brands that people know (awareness set) and understand the product features to some extent (processing set), but are absolutely determined not to buy.

There are various reasons for falling into this category, such as having a bad image due to word-of-mouth, having bought it before and being disappointed, or having a close friend who owns it and not wanting to have the same thing, among others.

The positive attitude toward products in the rejection set is, naturally, at its lowest (compared to the evoked set and the hold set).

'Rejecting' something also implies a relatively high level of involvement, so there is a certain amount of information being processed (more than in the hold set). Since the purchase intention is at its lowest (or non-existent) compared to the evoked set and the hold set, it becomes difficult to recover once you fall into this category (which is why the drastic measure of changing the brand name itself is sometimes taken).

Top of Mind Awareness

Top of mind is the brand that has secured the number one position within the Evoked Set.

What comes to mind when you think of mayonnaise?

What comes to mind when you think of tomato juice?

Many people will answer Kewpie and Kagome. This is the number one choice position.

According to the great David A. Aaker, brand equity (brand assets) is the sum of the product of five factors: brand awareness, brand associations, perceived quality, brand loyalty, and other assets.

Top of mind has the highest brand awareness, and brand associations are consistent in both directions between the category and the product (when you think of mayonnaise, you think of Kewpie; when you think of Kewpie, you think of mayonnaise). It also establishes very strong brand associations, as many people associate it with the character Kewpie-chan.

Since perceived quality (this product is of good quality) and brand loyalty (affection and attachment) are often strong, it is clear that the sum of brand equity is high.

The advantage of being in the Evoked Set (general consumer goods)

Now that we have a better understanding of the brand categorization framework for considering the Evoked Set, let's think about the advantage of being in the Evoked Set or becoming the number one choice.

First, let's look at the advantage of being in the Evoked Set for general consumer goods, such as those bought at supermarkets or convenience stores.

General consumer goods like food, beverages, and daily necessities are inexpensive and purchased frequently, so the risk of failure from a purchase is low. Therefore, category involvement is low (if you buy it and it's a failure, it's cheap, and you just don't buy it next time, so you end up buying it without thinking too deeply).

Because of this, the comparison and consideration stage in the consumer purchasing process (marketing funnel) barely exists.

Furthermore, for general consumer goods sold in supermarkets and convenience stores, the performance (physical benefits) of any product you buy is almost the same (commoditization), so the deciding factor for purchase is being in the Evoked Set, and having the top-of-mind position that comes to mind first is advantageous.

Let's think about the mayonnaise mentioned earlier.

When the mayonnaise in your refrigerator runs out (or is about to run out), you go to a supermarket or convenience store to buy mayonnaise.

At that time, the action you are taking is not going to the mayonnaise section (shelf) to buy mayonnaise, but going to pick up the Kewpie mayonnaise you always buy.

Just like a picking machine at an Amazon fulfillment center puts the ordered Kewpie mayonnaise into a collection box without any hesitation, you put it in your basket automatically, without thinking at all.

In technical terms, this is called heuristic (representativeness).

Heuristic is a psychological term, also called a bias, which is a thinking method for making decisions based on experience.

Since the term is difficult, I call it a shortcut created by the brain.

The brain consumes a lot of oxygen when thinking. In order to operate as energy-efficiently as possible, the brain creates many shortcuts on its own, saying, 'If you do this every day (if you choose this), you will be generally satisfied'.

Once many of these shortcuts are created, we can live our daily lives on autopilot without thinking about anything.

Heading to the station on the same road as always. Getting on the train at the same position as always. Sitting in the end seat if it's empty. Stopping by the convenience store near the office, going to the reach-in cooler (refrigerator) along the same route as always, and buying the same tea as always. Eating lunch at the same restaurant as always. Opening Twitter when tired. Playing games on your smartphone on the train home. Lying on the sofa and watching YouTube when you get home.

These are all heuristics (shortcuts created by the brain).

Let's get back to the point.

When we buy mayonnaise, what are we thinking about?

We aren't thinking about anything, right?

Because we are satisfied with the mayonnaise we always buy (there is no particular dissatisfaction), we buy the usual mayonnaise. It might be more accurate to say that we are going to replenish it because it ran out, rather than buying it.

This is automated habitual purchasing based on heuristics. Top-of-mind brands are strong because they have become the shortcut destination for many people.

This tendency becomes even more pronounced in the case of online purchases such as Amazon (where there is no stimulus at the store).

The market share for mayonnaise is 80% for Kewpie and 14% for Ajinomoto (Pure Select).

Let's assume you are the brand manager for Pure Select. Now, how would you challenge the giant Kewpie?

80% of consumers will head to the mayonnaise aisle and reach for Kewpie on autopilot, without giving it a second thought, just to get their usual mayonnaise.

You don't need two or three bottles of mayonnaise. One is enough, so if they buy one, you've lost. You have to get them to put Pure Select in their basket before they put Kewpie in.

In that case, thinking in terms of a standard approach, the only way is to offer a 100-yen discount and display a large quantity at the end of the supermarket aisle to get them to buy it.

To do a large-scale display at the end of the aisle, you need to pay for the discount and the promotional cooperation fees to secure the end-cap space in the supermarket. Naturally, profits decrease. And the more you discount, the more the brand value is eroded.

On the other hand, because 80% of consumers are on autopilot and come to the shelf to pick up the product, Kewpie can sell at the regular price without discounts on the standard shelf (even though it has one-tenth the foot traffic of the end-cap) without having to pay promotional cooperation fees to supermarkets for end-cap displays.

This is the reason why P&G insists so strongly on getting into the Evoked Set for a category—like 'Pantene for shampoo' or 'Gillette for shaving'—and capturing the top-of-mind position.

The advantage of being in the Evoked Set (durable consumer goods and specialty products)

What about durable consumer goods and specialty products?

For items like home appliances and automobiles, the price is high and the purchase frequency is low, so the risk of failure in purchasing is significant.

Therefore, we thoroughly research online reviews before making a purchase.

Let's say your vacuum cleaner at home broke today.

Many people will think, 'Ugh... what an unexpected expense, damn it,' but since they'll be in trouble without one, they will consider buying a new one.

You use a vacuum cleaner for three or five years, so the last time you bought one was quite a while ago. Naturally, you don't have a wealth of options in your head.

If you don't have options, you can't evaluate them, so before looking at reviews, you must first create options in your mind.

Therefore, many people will search for 'vacuum cleaner best sellers' or go to kakaku.com to look at the rankings.

But in that process (or perhaps from the very beginning), isn't Dyson already in your head?

It should be something you're slightly curious about, such as 'When it comes to vacuum cleaners, it's Dyson, right?', 'Dyson is famous, but how is it really?', or 'Dyson has an image of being expensive, but how much is it?'

In that case, it means that even though you hadn't thought about vacuum cleaners for even a second all day until just now, Dyson has already successfully positioned itself as the top-of-mind choice in your Evoked Set.

They secured pole position in anticipation of the day your vacuum cleaner would eventually break.

Whether it's vacuum cleaners, cars, or opening a securities account, we generally consider two to three options before deciding on a purchase. In other words, being in the Evoked Set is directly linked to remaining in (and advancing through) the final race.

Furthermore (once in the Evoked Set), you must win the competition.

So, in what order does this competition (consideration) take place?

That's right. It proceeds exactly in the order of recall (1st place → 2nd place → 3rd place). The top-of-mind brand is the one considered first.

Now, this is where the battle via word-of-mouth (reviews) begins.

Even if it is a best-selling product with the largest market share, there is no product accepted by everyone, so bad reviews (1-star or 2-star) will also be seen here and there.

However, since the top-of-mind brand is number one in the set of favorable options, it has the highest level of favorability. People want to buy it. But because they don't want to fail or regret it, they check the reviews just in case.

The psychology at this point is not 'consideration,' but 'verification.'

They are gathering evidence (a collection of self-justifications) to buy, asking, 'Everyone is satisfied, right?', 'It's okay to buy, right?', 'I won't regret buying this, right?'

Therefore, even if they see a review saying 'I regretted buying it' or 'It was a defective product,' they judge it favorably, thinking, 'Yeah, it just didn't suit you' or 'You were unlucky.'

Then, they go looking for positive reviews like 'The best!', 'I'm glad I bought it!', or 'You can't go wrong with this!', and once they have finished gathering enough reassurance, they make the purchase.

Even if they were in the Evoked Set, brands in 2nd place or lower are being 'considered' rather than 'verified,' so when they see reviews like 'I regretted buying it' or 'It's a waste of money,' their resolve breaks immediately.'That was close! Good thing I didn't buy it.'

Tribal's research shows that 70% of people purchase the top-of-mind brand after reading reviews, compared to 20% for 2nd place and 10% for 3rd place.

If you aren't in the Evoked Set, you've already lost. Even if you are, it is clear that the top-of-mind brand is overwhelmingly strong.

When and where is the evoked set created?

Now, when and where is this important Evoked Set created?

It is created (as is obvious) by the combined power of advertising, public relations, sales promotion activities, in-store marketing, past purchase (usage) experience, conversations with friends and acquaintances, and online reviews conducted by each company.

Consequently, naturally, the company with the largest market share—which already has many customers and strong exposure and in-store dominance due to generous advertising and sales promotion budgets—has an overwhelming advantage.

The hateful Double Jeopardy Law

This is where the Double Jeopardy Law stands in our way.

The Double Jeopardy Law is the principle that 'brands with a high market share also have a large number of buyers, and these buyers also have high behavioral and attitudinal loyalty' (How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don't Know by Byron Sharp).

According to this law, brands with a high market share have more customers, higher behavioral loyalty (the probability of actually buying), and higher attitudinal loyalty (favorability and purchase intent).

That may be true, but it means that brands in second place or lower will never be able to beat the number one brand.

In fact, the strategy that a market leader (the company or brand with the highest market share) should take (since they are naturally in the Evoked Set and have a high probability of having secured the top-of-mind position) is to either adopt a strategy like Kewpie's, which minimizes the number of brands in the Evoked Set as much as possible, or to continue investing an overwhelming amount of advertising and promotion to maintain the top-of-mind position.

However, there is only one market leader in any given market. The vast majority of brands are in second place or lower. I understand the strategy of the strong (the market leader's strategy), but I want the strategy of the weak (the strategy for second place and below).

Focusing on ZMOT

That is precisely why I think we should focus on ZMOT.

ZMOT (an abbreviation for Zero Moment-Of-Truth) is a concept proposed by Google in 2011 that reveals 'consumers have already decided 70-80% of the brand they will purchase before going to the store.'

I have summarized the details here. You won't regret it. Please, I beg you to read it.

Consumers decide on the product they will buy before they even go to the store. In other words, the battle for position in the Evoked Set and top-of-mind (in the consumer's brain) is already over before they arrive at the store.

When and where does that battle for position (in the Evoked Set and top-of-mind) take place?

I believe that is ZMOT.

The advertising, campaigns, news, and word-of-mouth on social media that we encounter online are the true nature of ZMOT, and the contact and experience there determine the Evoked Set and top-of-mind.

Frequency is life

The Evoked Set is not something that is fixed semi-permanently once it is created. The rankings change from time to time.

Therefore, the perspective of 'staying in' rather than just 'getting in' is important.

So, what is necessary to get into and stay in the Evoked Set? I believe it is frequency (contact frequency).

No matter how intense the stimulus or content you encounter, if it was a month ago, its presence will fade. If a competitor has achieved a higher frequency of contact during that time, they will likely steal the pole position (top-of-mind).

To prevent that from happening, you need to ensure a high frequency of contact within the ZMOT.

So, can you stay in the Evoked Set by increasing your advertising budget and securing a massive number of impressions?

That's difficult, isn't it?

Ads are intrusive, and excessive frequency not only leads to a decline in advertising effectiveness but also increases consumer discomfort, resulting in a counterproductive effect.

UGC is life

This is where UGC (User Generated Content: content created by users, i.e., social media posts) comes into the spotlight.

Please take a look at this.

Using Boom Research, here is the number of organic (spontaneous) tweets (excluding RTs and mentions) for 'Starbucks now' and 'Doutor now' from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019.

※Source: Boom Research

As of January 2020, there are 1,530 Starbucks stores and 1,106 Doutor stores, but the number of 'now posts' differs by about 10 to 30 times (depending on the day).

What I want to emphasize here is not the difference between the two companies, but the value of organic tweets themselves.

'Starbucks now' averages about 300 organic tweets per day (excluding RTs and mentions).

If we assume the average number of followers for an active Twitter user is 200, that's 300 posts x 200 people = 60,000 follower reach (estimated value). Since the actual effective reach of a post (the probability that the post is seen) is 10% to 20%, 6,000 to 12,000 people see someone's (a followee's) 'Starbucks now' every day.

Unlike advertisements, posts from people you follow (followees) are less likely to be skipped, and because they are connected via WHO, the penetration of information is considered to be higher.

This is why posts on Twitter being displayed to followers are called 'word-of-mouth impressions' or 'earned impressions'.

Almost everyone knows both Starbucks and Doutor. You could say the awareness rate among target users is almost 100%.

So, what is the use of these 'now post' word-of-mouth impressions?

It is re-recall.

'Now posts' do not say that something is delicious (evaluation) or recommend it (endorsement). They simply convey 'presence' (or more accurately, the context of being there).

Even with just that much information, it leads to reminding people of Starbucks or Doutor, such as 'Is Mr. Yamada at Starbucks again?' or 'Mr. Suzuki really likes Doutor.'

Next, let's look at USJ (Universal Studios Japan) and Disneyland (including DisneySea and Disney Resort). This time, instead of 'now posts,' we are looking at park names.

*Source: Boom Research

Since these are not 'now posts,' the numbers are high. The two parks have about 3,000 to 10,000 organic posts per day (excluding RTs and mentions).

If we perform the same calculation as before (assuming 5,000 posts per day), that is 5,000 x 200 people = 100,000 people. Since the effective reach (word-of-mouth impressions) is 10% to 20%, it is estimated to be 20,000 to 30,000 people.

Every day, for free, 20,000 to 30,000 people are reminded of USJ or Disneyland (through posts by friends and acquaintances).

Furthermore, many posts include things like 'At Universal with XX! Had a blast♡,' 'The new show was amazing!,' or 'XX (attraction) is the best after all,' which must be contributing to increasing attitudinal loyalty (favorability and intention to visit).

This is the effect of word-of-mouth impressions (earned impressions) on social media.

You are losing to competitors in market share. Following the Double Jeopardy Law, you might also be losing in both behavioral and attitudinal loyalty.

And there is a limit to advertising budgets. You cannot spend more on advertising than the company with the number one market share.

But you want to break into the top of the Evoked Set. If possible, you want to capture top-of-mind awareness!

In competition, the side with more resources wins. Therefore, you cannot win by fighting with conventional methods.

However, we live in the age of social media.

If you cannot win with conventional methods based on advertising spend, I believe that concentrating resources on a ZMOT strategy that leverages the power of social media can be a breakthrough. This has become long, so I will save that for another time!

Recommended reading

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At Tribal Media House, we provide PMO support to formulate effective CEPs (Category Entry Points) and top-of-mind strategies, and accompany you through execution, effectiveness measurement, and improvement.

Lectures and In-House Training on the 'Top-of-Mind Map'

I offer the content of this article as a lecture and in-house training service. If you want to create a common language within your company and accelerate progress on this theme, please reach out. I don't mean to brag, but the satisfaction rate is extremely high. I will not let you down.

Top-of-Mind Acquisition Workshop

I also offer a workshop program. This is recommended for those who want to do more than just listen—for those who want participants to use their own heads and hands to acquire practical skills! Or for those who want to immediately establish a strategic direction that the whole team can agree on and start working on tomorrow!

Top-of-Mind Acquisition Strategy Consulting

For those who want to build a solid strategy after thoroughly researching and identifying the CEPs (Category Entry Points) your company should target, as well as analyzing the competitive landscape of the evoked set and top-of-mind awareness, brand associations, POX (POP/POD), and the effectiveness of RTBs, I offer professional consulting services. I will work with you to create a strategy that involves other departments and superiors with different interests, ensuring it doesn't just remain a pipe dream but is actually put into action.

Strategic Consultant Recruitment | Tribal Media House

We are looking for strategic consultants to provide these professional services to clients alongside Ikeda. If you want to acquire high-level skills that won't be replaced by AI and are committed to growing your clients' businesses, please contact us. Let's eliminate marketing failures from this world.

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If you want to learn more deeply about the content of this article, I also recommend this book.

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To contribute to the development of the marketing industry I love, I operate MARPS, where you can learn systematic marketing for free. You can take high-quality lectures that would cost 20,000 or 30,000 yen elsewhere for free. There are many distinguished guests. Over 100 past lectures are available. We have surpassed 8,500 members. The course satisfaction rate is 95.1%. I don't mean to brag, but you're missing out if you don't take these courses.

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