What If Book Value: What If a SoftBank Female Intern Read a Textbook on Book Value Accounting
Who decided that corporate value should be measured by the 'future'?
No matter how uncertain the hope, if it is illuminated by the light called 'fair value,' investors will believe it.
Book value is a memory of the past, a ghost of depreciated assets.
However, sometimes the truth resides within ghosts.
This is a fictional storyabout a female intern who turned her eyes away from 'future illusions' and toward 'past truths'.
What she began to read was an old accounting textbook that no one opened anymore.
And she realized it. If you measure dreams by book value, how everything would fall apart...
Chapter 1: 'Management' and 'Sham-agement'
One day, Oogami Nomine, a female intern in the Financial Analysis Department, found a dusty book inside a cardboard box in the warehouse.
'How to Read Consolidated Balance Sheets (Japanese GAAP)'
'...What is this? What is book value?'
It was a textbook on depreciation and book value accounting that no one in this day and age would even look at.
Meanwhile, the company where she was interning... was SoftBank Group.
'It's NAV.' 'It's fair value.' 'We even calculate the market value of unlisted stocks using AI.'
The eyes of the boss who said that were always looking at a distant future. He was looking at the illusion of valuation gains, not stacks of cash.
'But... what would happen if we evaluated this at book value?'
Out of curiosity, Oogami Nomine began the forbidden experiment of 'What if book value'.
Chapter 2: The Alchemy Called NAV
SBG's Net Asset Value (NAV) grabs headlines every time earnings are announced.
'NAV per share is 12,000 yen! The current stock price is undervalued!'
'Asset value is 40 trillion yen, and liabilities are only 15 trillion yen, so there's no problem!'
The market applauds, but the contents of that NAV are...
• Arm shares: Book value 2 trillion yen → Market value 8 trillion yen
• Vision Fund unlisted stocks: Book value 500 billion yen → Market valuation 3 trillion yen (estimated)
• Total unrealized gains on holdings: Over 20 trillion yen (4 times the book value)
NAV is a convenient difference obtained by subtracting 'liabilities at book value' from 'market-valued assets.' In short, it is a mirage in the accounting world where assets are dreams and liabilities are reality.
Chapter 3: If It Were Book Value... The Shocking Consolidated B/S
Oogami Nomine tried reconstructing SBG's consolidated balance sheet on a book value basis.
Item | NAV Basis | Book Value Basis (Estimated)
• Total Assets: Approx. 50 trillion yen | Approx. 18 trillion yen
• Total Liabilities: Approx. 15 trillion yen | Approx. 15 trillion yen (unchanged)
• Net Assets: Approx. 35 trillion yen | Approx. 3 trillion yen
• Market Capitalization (Stock Price): Approx. 10 trillion yen (as of 2025) | Below book value net assets
Furthermore, if you factor in the book value of unlisted stocks, the 'Vision Fund illusion' is wiped out, and the company is on the verge of insolvency.
“Um... if the Financial Services Agency says, ‘NAV accounting is prohibited’, wouldn't that be an immediate game over?”
Mine Ogami's voice reaches no one. After all, the IR representative is busy telling investors about 'dreams' again today.
The sea of Excel spreadsheets being burned away
Looking at the book value B/S she created, a veteran in the accounting department muttered.
“You... you should put that Excel file through a shredder. If it accidentally leaks, the stock price will plummet.”
However, Mine Ogami thought to herself.
“Corporate value can be talked about in terms of market value, but debts are always repaid in cash, right?”
And then, she quietly posted to the company Slack.
“The era of talking about corporate value through NAV might already be over.”
Management has turned into 'Mismanagement'
If Masayoshi Son had measured corporate value by book value instead of NAV, he wouldn't have been able to use the 'magic of leverage.' He surely would have faced 'real-world cash flow' instead of 'illusory future projections.'
But if that were the case, perhaps SoftBank Group wouldn't have grown this large.
Chapter 4: The Day the NAV Spell is Broken
～When the magic disappears from Excel～
“NAV is the process of putting a price tag on future possibilities.”
An executive speaks with a cool expression on the stage of an IR briefing. The screen behind him displays the infamous 'Excel myth.'
List of Assets Held (Market Value Evaluation)
・Arm shares: 8 trillion yen
・T-Mobile shares: 4 trillion yen
・Coupang shares: 2 trillion yen
・Other unlisted startups: Dreams x 100 companies
These are totaled up, and the figure 'NAV = 40 trillion yen' is treated as if it were a bank account balance.
But Mine Ogami had realized the truth.
The true nature of that NAV was a collection of 'what-if' functions embedded in Excel cells.
Mental calculation: A world of 'what-ifs'
The 'what-if' formula used by SBG executives is as follows.
=IF(IPO_scheduled="Undecided", Latest_funding_amount*Dream_multiplier, Stock_price*Number_of_shares_held)
Unlisted companies claim, 'We were valued at 1 trillion yen in our latest funding round!' while having zero sales track record. Moreover, they can't sell because doing so would cool the market. Because they don't sell, the value is maintained. It's like food without an expiration date written on it.
“At this rate, isn't this less of an unrealized gain and more of a bundle of desires to be valued?”
No-mine Ogami's tweets were soon secretly shared on the company's Slack.
The tags were: #TheEndOfTheNAVMyth #ExcelBlackMagic #BackToBookValue
An accountant's testament: 'Impairment never betrays'
Meanwhile, a former accountant said this at an external seminar.
“I have spent 40 years looking at corporate finances, and book value does not lie.
NAV speaks, but impairment screams.”
In fact, the Vision Fund at SBG has seen impairments on the scale of trillions of yen in the past.
Each time, the NAV was refreshed, and a new dream was overwritten.
An escapism called impairment.
No-mine Ogami suddenly thinks to herself.
“Isn't impairment just the market value that has been abandoned by NAV?”
Will the FSA make a move?
Then, on a certain day in 2026, the Financial Services Agency quietly announced:
“Emphasizing NAV in corporate financial disclosures may mislead investors.
We are considering guidance that requires disclosure of the difference from NAV alongside book value information.”
The market trembled.
The media wrote it up.
“Did NAV never exist!? SBG enters the forbidden realm of market value assessment”
The analyst who doesn't smile
“NAV is the word value investors hate the most.”
That is what Serizawa, an analyst at a certain securities firm, says.
He said quietly.
“NAV is like margin trading funded by unrealized gains. You can believe in it while it's going up, but it's hell when it reverses.”
“NAV is corporate value? That's the same as taking out a mortgage on the assumption that the lottery ticket you're holding will win.”
No-mine Ogami couldn't laugh.
And the day NAV disappeared
One night, the NAV graph quietly disappeared from SBG's IR page.
No one explained why.
The media didn't touch it either.
But within the company, some called it this:
“The day the spell was broken”
Chapter 5: Masayoshi Son, balancing the books of dreams
~The backflow of cash and the tears of Excel~
Operating cash flow speaks
“Investing isn't an act of paying for dreams. It's like paying in advance for the future balance.”
A veteran finance man said.
SoftBank Group's operating cash flow (CF) continued to be negative in 2024.
Why? No cash is being generated from the Vision Fund's startups. Rather, it is 'an eternal warm-up period until cash is generated'.
'It's in the black by NAV, but operating CF has been in the red forever... In any normal company, that's a candidate for bankruptcy'.
Mine Ogami finally realizes.
Behind the NAV, there is a reverse flow of cash.
The Magic of Balancing the Books: Asset Sale Showtime
So, how did SBG make its financial results 'look good'? It was the injection of one-time payments called 'gain on sale of assets'.
・Selling a portion of Arm shares → Hundreds of billions of yen in non-operating income
・Selling T-Mobile holdings → Trillions of yen in extraordinary profit
・Gain on sale when a subsidiary goes public → A superficial profit
In other words, they use 'cash obtained by selling off dreams' rather than 'unrealized gains born from dreams' to tidy up the P&L and BS. 'In household terms, this is like living by dipping into savings even though you have zero income, right...?'
To Mine Ogami's murmur, Analyst Serizawa replied.
'No, it's worse than that. It's like spending your parents' inheritance while taking out a card loan in your child's name'.
The Self-Destruct Switch Called Impairment
The reality that accounting audits force upon the valuation gains in NAV... that is impairment.
Companies that fail to deliver results, startups struggling to raise funds, unlisted stocks without external valuations...
Each time, a red number suddenly appears in SBG's financial results.
'Impairment loss: 974 billion yen'
Sometimes it was WeWork, other times it was OYO, and many other stars of hope.
'Dreams are shining until you see them, but the moment they are judged to be unconvertible to cash, they become trash...'
Mine Ogami created a 'Cumulative Impairment Graph' next to the NAV graph in Excel.
Its shape was plummeting like a roller coaster.
The Silence of the NAV Believers
'If Son-san says it's okay, then it's okay'
'It's a buy because of the NAV'
'Didn't he say this was the next Google!'
The individual investors who used to say such things were now silent.
Staring at the average acquisition cost of SBG shares in their NISA accounts.
On social media, voices whispering this began to increase.
'NAV was just a faith, wasn't it'
'Book value was the reality, wasn't it'
And When the Balancing of Dreams Runs Out
In 2026, SoftBank Group suddenly announced a halt to new corporate bond issuance. It was written as 'a shift to a flexible financial policy due to changes in the market environment,' but the truth is this.
"There were no dreams left to use as collateral."
Asset sales had reached their limit. The corporate value inflated by NAV was no longer accepted by the market.
At that moment, Mine Ogami typed a single line into Excel:
=IF(NAV="Faith", "Cash is everything", "Bankruptcy is reality")
And then, she whispered.
"If it were book value... this company might have woken up from its dream sooner."
Chapter 6: If It Were Book Value Management—Would SoftBank Have Collapsed?
~The End of Myth-Based Management and the Horizon of Resurgence~
The Forbidden Simulation of 'NAV-less Management'
In 2026, a report secretly prepared by a financial think tank became a hot topic within the company.
"SBG Book Value Accounting Adoption Scenario (Private Estimate)"
The simulation was simple.
It analyzed funding capacity, credit ratings, corporate bond yields, and market sentiment based on financial statements where everything was evaluated at book value instead of 'NAV'.
The result was long-standing insolvency. Unable to raise funds. Corporate bonds crashing at a BB rating. In other words, it was a 'zombie in the guise of a major corporation'.
The cover of the report read as follows:
"Under book value accounting, SBG cannot stand on the stage of credit. Market valuation was the costume it wore as a performer."
But, one cannot say it 'collapsed'
Mine Ogami suddenly thought.
"If they had used book value from the start, wouldn't SBG have failed to grow this large, and never reached a scale where it could collapse in the first place?"
Indeed. Book value accounting has no scalability.
In other words, 'It is safe, but you cannot dream.'
Therefore, 'If it were book value management, it wouldn't have collapsed, but it never would have climbed this high to begin with.'
Masayoshi Son climbed the stairs of NAV, fully prepared for a fatal fall from a great height.
A World After NAV Disappears
SBG, having lost the storytelling of NAV, was faced with the next question.
"What should we talk about now to get investors to move?"
AI?
Semiconductors?
Partnerships with the Middle East?
Data centers?
National strategy-level initiatives?
They were all stories I had seen somewhere before.
They were nothing more than tales revolving around 'intangible assets'.
Investors are no longer moved by 'PPT tricks' inflated with PowerPoint.
SBG finally began to speak of 'reality' through 'cash balances,' 'impairment history,' and 'operating cash flow.' It was the moment they descended from the stage of fiction into the muddy ring.
Shareholders' meeting, buzzing
The 2026 SBG shareholders' meeting.
As usual, Masayoshi Son begins his presentation.
'Everyone... SBG has stopped talking about NAV.'
'The reason is simple. The era of selling dreams through numbers is over.'
Someone raised their hand.
'Then what are we investing in now?'
Masayoshi Son took a breath and said,
'Cash flow. Cash is the only metric that measures the future.'
The venue froze, but only Mine Ogami was quietly applauding in the back.
Horizon of Revival: Is a New Myth Necessary?
SBG steered toward reconstruction.
Reorganizing Unlisted Stocks
1. Re-evaluation of cash cow businesses (mobile, telecommunications, Yahoo!)
2. Shifting investment rotation from 'market valuation' to 'effective cash'
No more 'myths' would be told. But to transform into a 'surviving company,' that was enough.
'We don't need myths. If we have cash, we can fight.'
Beyond NAV and Excel
'Book value accounting is inconvenient, but it's honest, isn't it?'
Mine Ogami closed her old accounting textbook with a small smile.
'In the era of NAV, Excel could create everything. But from now on, the Cash Flow Statement is the textbook for life planning.'
And then, she opened a new file.
="What is corporate value" & IF(Cash>Dreams, "Reality", "Illusion")
What if corporate bonds... What if you had bought SBG's retail corporate bonds?
~The trap of interest rates, the aftermath of a dream~
People flocking to 'high yields'
A certain day in 2025. At the counter of a certain securities firm in Tokyo, elderly people who had just received their retirement money were lined up.
"3.65% annual interest? Oh, SoftBank Group? That's Mr. Son's company, right? It's fine, because it's a big company."
"It doesn't grow even if I put it in the bank, so this much risk is... you know?"
The salesman whispers like this.
"Please rest assured. It's a corporate bond from a large company, and it was redeemed properly last time as well."
Behind his smile, he knew.
How this 'dream yield' was supported by a precarious cash flow.
The pitfall of credit ratings
SBG's corporate bonds were traded near an 'A rating' in Japan.
However, they were already being warned as 'non-investment grade (BB or below)' by overseas rating agencies.
"Behind high-yield corporate bonds lies high-stress management."
Noine Ogami was reading the corporate bond prospectus.
"Repayment source: Securing liquidity through asset sales and refinancing"... That means 'paying off the previous bond with the next bond,' right?
In other words, SBG's corporate bonds were the only art form that legalized a modern 'Ponzi-like structure' in a formal format.
If viewed at book value, individuals would not have bought them
If SoftBank Group's (SBG) balance sheet had been disclosed at 'book value,' who would have actually bought these corporate bonds?
・Assets held: 18 trillion yen (book value)
・Interest-bearing debt: 15 trillion yen
・Net assets: Only a few trillion yen—or worse, negative
"If a company with this kind of financial structure was raising funds from individual investors on the scale of hundreds of billions of yen, it's not a bubble, it's mass hypnosis..."
Analyst Serizawa whispered quietly.
The last buyer of corporate bonds = individuals who don't read financial statements
Professional institutional investors have already pulled out.
Banks are also reluctant to underwrite.
Pension funds have also withdrawn in the name of risk management.
Even so, the ones who remained as the 'last buyers' were individual investors.
"I can't believe SoftBank is going under..."
"The securities guy didn't say it was bad either..."
"It was almost time for redemption..."
Such voices are beginning to appear online in the same tone as those who once dabbled in high-yield funds and foreign currency structured bonds.
To you who bought corporate bonds
If you, the reader of this story, bought SBG corporate bonds... perhaps you were the last passenger forced to bear the "terminal station" of the NAV myth.
But please rest assured.
Your investment was by no means in vain.
Because with that money, SoftBank Telecom was acquired by Rakuten.
New Company Name: Rakuten Bank Co., Ltd.
"Dreams, on an installment plan."
That was the catchphrase at the time of the acquisition announcement.
The merger partner, Rakuten Mobile, is a company bleeding red ink.
SBG was insolvent and had no choice but to sell its telecom business.
For some reason, this "salvage corporate merger" was reported in a mood of national celebration.
"A symbol of telecommunications liberalization"
"A new form of capitalism"
"A handshake of souls between Son and Mikitani"
But you know.
That it was a terminal disposal.
And who will laugh in the end?
The NAV collapsed, and the corporate bonds became worthless paper.
Yet, behind the scenes, Rakuten's stock price somehow skyrocketed.
The expectation that "they bought SBG's prime assets for a steal!" excited the short-term traders.
When I opened my securities account, there was this notification.
*Notice: SBG corporate bonds have been automatically converted into Rakuten Points.
Expiration date: 365 days. Can be used at Rakuten Ichiba, Rakuma, Rakuten Travel, etc.
Yes. Your investment became fertilizer for the Rakuten economic sphere.
Final Chapter: The Dawn of Book Value
The myth called SBG has ended.
Rakuten has built a new castle upon its ruins.
Named,NAV-LESS CITY.
There are no dreams there anymore.
All that exists is a monthly subscription and point rewards.
And the lesson that remained in the end was this.
Speak in book value. Think in cash. Cry in Rakuten Points.
"What If Book Value"... it is a "theory of happiness for the losers" where those who have awakened from the dream of NAV land back into reality along with their Rakuten Points.
And those who live by points are the ones who will have the last laugh.
(To be continued)
Rintaro Takechi
