Where Will USDT, USDC, and Consortium-Type Stablecoins Survive?

[Series Common Theme]
The Future Power Map of Stablecoins: Which Currency Will Dominate Which Financial Sphere?

*This is a continuation from the following.
Part 1: How Many Stablecoins Will Survive? - Why It Won't Be a Winner-Takes-All Scenario
Part 2: Why Is Stripe Creating a New Dollar? - The Future of Financial Infrastructure Envisioned by the Collison Brothers
Part 3: Why Does Stripe Want PayPal? - The Real Goal Behind the $53 Billion Acquisition Proposal

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If you look only at their basic functions, current stablecoins do not differ significantly. Even so, they are not used in the same way. A currency that has already built up significant liquidity has an overwhelming advantage. However, if liquidity were the only deciding factor, there would be almost no room for stablecoins other than USDT to grow.

In reality, USDC has established its own position, and new corporate alliances such as Open USD and USDG are entering the market. Each has a different strategy.

<USDT: Liquidity Itself Becomes Trust>
For many years, USDT has been used as a base currency with high liquidity. This "liquidity" is USDT's greatest strength.

Not everyone who uses USDT necessarily trusts Tether deeply.

The reason it is still used is that a "market trust" has been formed, where many market participants accept it and can exchange it when necessary. In other words, liquidity itself has become a part of that trust.

Therefore, for a new stablecoin to surpass USDT, proving its safety is not enough. As long as there are exchanges, wallets, market makers, and users who utilize USDT, that liquidity will not be lost.

Consequently, it is highly likely that USDT will maintain a strong position in the crypto asset market and in the use of digital dollars in emerging countries for the time being.

On the other hand, since corporations and regulated financial institutions do not choose currencies based solely on liquidity, USDT will not dominate every financial sphere.

Furthermore, compliance with the GENIUS Act in the United States poses a risk. The act will be implemented no later than January 2027, from which point unauthorized stablecoin issuance will be prohibited in the U.S. Meanwhile, for stablecoins from unauthorized issuers already in circulation, handling by U.S. crypto asset exchanges and others will be permitted as a transitional measure until July 2028, but after that, it will generally no longer be allowed.

If Tether fails to meet the necessary requirements as a foreign issuer by then, U.S. crypto asset exchanges and others will be unable to continue handling USDT, and USDT risks losing its share in the U.S. market all at once.

As a countermeasure, Tether launched "USAT," a stablecoin compliant with U.S. law, in January 2026, but its usage rate has remained at a low level to date.

<USDC: Aiming to be a Currency That Connects Everywhere>
If USDT is a currency chosen for its existing liquidity, USDC aims to be a currency integrated into financial services through regulatory compliance and interoperability.

Circle is focusing on mechanisms that connect different blockchains. This is because if funds are dispersed across separate blockchains, liquidity is also fragmented.

Therefore, Circle is developing technology that allows native USDC to move between different blockchains. The goal is not just to improve liquidity. It is to cultivate USDC into a financial service-spanning payment currency that is independent of any specific blockchain.

If USDT is the "easiest currency to trade," USDC aims to be the "easiest currency to integrate and connect."

On the other hand, Circle's challenge lies in the fact that the majority of its revenue depends on the investment returns of its backing assets. In fact, almost all of its revenue is generated by Reserve Income, and other revenue sources have barely grown. With such a revenue structure, it is highly likely that profitability will decline rapidly in an era of low interest rates.

<Open USD and USDG>
Issuers like Tether and Circle operate the backing assets entrusted to them by users and earn revenue from them. In contrast, Open USD and USDG adopt a mechanism that distributes the majority of their revenue to participating companies, aiming for a consortium-style ecosystem that they grow together.

Although they have different operating entities, they share the common goal of forming a consortium that includes diverse businesses such as exchanges, payment companies, banks, and wallets, and expanding the areas where stablecoins are used.

Paxos, at the center of USDG, leverages its strength in issuing and managing regulatory-compliant stablecoins, using that issuance foundation to expand its use cases. On the other hand, Stripe, behind Open USD, started with corporate payments. They already possess a massive infrastructure where corporate money moves, and they are looking to integrate stablecoins into it.

In other words, it can be said that USDG has a strategy of 'expanding use cases from the currency,' while Open USD has a strategy of 'expanding the currency from the use cases.'

◆ 'Standard Integration' Will Determine the Winner
Both also emphasize that they are consortiums with many participating companies.

However, 'participation does not equal implementation.' One should not judge that they will succeed just because 'famous companies have joined.' There are also companies that participate in both Open USD and USDG.

Therefore, what will determine the winner is how widely they can be integrated as a standard into the services of many companies, and whether they can build a world where users continue to use them without even being aware of the stablecoin's existence.

◆ Is There Only One Seat for the Consortium Model?
Just because Open USD and USDG are competing does not necessarily mean one will disappear. As we saw in the first installment, financial infrastructure has aspects that make it difficult for a simple winner-take-all outcome due to differences in regions, regulations, and participating companies.

On the other hand, even if both coexist, it does not mean they will continue to exist on the same scale. It is possible that they will build different financial spheres, such as Open USD for corporate payments and USDG for exchanges and on-chain finance.

However, that is not because their uses were divided from the beginning. It is because their areas of expertise are formed as a result of competing in the same market.

Furthermore, similar to USDC, a common challenge for both Open USD and USDG remains the fact that in an era of low interest rates, the distributable revenue may shrink, potentially weakening their centripetal force as a consortium.

<Currencies That Survive and Currencies That Fade Away>
Many companies, including banks, payment companies, crypto exchanges, and card networks, will likely continue to enter the stablecoin market.

However, being able to issue a currency is different from being able to survive.

USDT has overwhelming liquidity, and USDC has the power to connect multiple blockchains and financial services with interoperability as its weapon. Additionally, Open USD has the corporate payment infrastructure that Stripe has built, while USDG has the strength of the track record in issuance and regulatory compliance that Paxos has cultivated.

So, what is different about SoFiUSD?

SoFiUSD is designed as the core currency for SoFi, the issuer, which provides integrated financial services such as deposits, investments, loans, and payments. If Open USD and USDG are 'currencies expanded by everyone,' then SoFiUSD is a 'currency that can create its own place to be used.'

Will the model of vertically integrating banks and financial services truly have competitiveness? And which financial sphere will SoFiUSD end up fighting over with its strongest rival, Stripe? Or can they coexist?In the next installment, I would like to predict its future.

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