I'm worried about my old age, so I started investing in stocks DAY 96 [Making interest rates your ally]
—Walking with Haru, Age 60 Investment Record Day 96—
Starting today, I decided to watch the lectures from a new instructor.
They specialize in thematic stock investing, and the first topic was "The Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Stock Prices."
〈When interest rates fall, stock prices tend to rise〉
The basics of the lecture were simple.
When interest rates fall, money flows more easily into the stock market, and stock prices tend to rise.
Conversely, when interest rates rise, it tends to be a headwind for stock prices.
The lecture also explained that different industries benefit depending on which way interest rates move.
In a rising interest rate environment, mega-banks and regional banks benefit.
In a falling interest rate environment, real estate and consumer finance benefit.
🌸 Me: "The moment they said 'real estate,' Sekisui House came to mind."
🌱 "Yes. Lower interest rates make it easier for people buying homes to borrow money. For companies dealing in housing, interest rates are one of the factors that affect business performance." —Haru
📚 Today's lecture notes (The relationship between monetary policy and stock prices)
When interest rates fall, money flows more easily into the stock market, and stock prices tend to rise.
Conversely, when interest rates rise, it tends to be a headwind for stock prices.
Industries that tend to benefit in a rising interest rate environment include mega-banks and regional banks. Daily necessity-related sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, electric power/gas, railways, and telecommunications were also mentioned.
Industries that tend to benefit in a falling interest rate environment include real estate, consumer finance, and electric power.
Abenomics was composed of three arrows: "bold monetary policy (unprecedented easing, zero interest rates, quantitative easing)," "flexible fiscal policy (fiscal stimulus such as public works)," and "growth strategy to stimulate private investment (deregulation)." During this period, the Nikkei Stock Average continued to rise from the 7,500 yen level.
Exchange rates are also related to stock prices. Automobiles and electronic components tend to benefit when the yen is weak, while electric power, food, and dining out tend to benefit when the yen is strong.
The lecture explained that "as of 2025, interest rates are in the stage of moving toward normalization," so I checked the current situation as well.
Now in 2026, the policy interest rate has already risen to 0.75%, and the Bank of Japan is at the stage of considering further rate hikes.
The inflation rate is also hovering around 2%, and the focus of the conversation has shifted from "can we avoid deflation?" to "what should the pace of rate hikes be?"
Just like on DAY 95, it has progressed one step further since the time of the lecture.
〈Looking at Sekisui House from a different angle again〉
Sekisui House is a company I have looked at several times before.
On DAY 73, I looked at it using the PER x PBR mixed index; on DAY 78, from the perspective of dividends; and on DAY 92, by the ratio of overseas business.
And today, I ended up looking at it from yet another angle: interest rates.
It feels like every time I add a new perspective to looking at the same company, its outline becomes clearer.
If interest rates fall, it could be a tailwind for Sekisui House.
Conversely, if interest rates rise, it could be a headwind. How Japanese interest rates will move from here on out has also become one of the factors to consider when looking at this company.
🌸 Me: "In DAY 92, I learned that macro and micro are separate issues, but today's lesson was about how macro directly connects to micro."
🌱 "Yes. Not all macro factors affect every company in the same way. However, there are paths, like interest rates, that are clearly linked depending on the industry. It's like adding another layer of depth to what you learned in DAY 92." — Haru
💬 Satsuki's question and Haru's answer
🌸 Me: "So, should I start paying proper attention to interest rate news from now on?"
🌱 "Yes. However, rather than getting happy or sad just by looking at interest rates, I think it's better to use the information to know 'which way interest rate movements act as a tailwind for this company.'" — Haru
<What I understood best today>
Macro news is not just something to listen to in passing, but material to think about how it connects to the companies I own.
From the single word 'interest rates,' I feel like I understand Sekisui House a little more deeply again.
I will continue tomorrow.
📚 Related articles for DAY 96 are here
Click here for DAY 92https://note.com/satsuki_60/n/n93b4c80eb3e4
#MonetaryPolicy #InterestRatesAndStockPrices #SekisuiHouse #InvestingInYour60s #RetirementAnxiety #InvestmentBeginner #StartedWithAI #WorkingTogetherWithHaru
