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Unfounded data crushes the buds of entrepreneurship

Thank you as always! This is Kaiun-san.
Looking forward to working with you again today! 😊


Have you ever heard this phrase?
"The survival rate of companies is 6% after 10 years."

Those who know it say, "Oh, this one."
Those who don't say, "What! Is that so?"

That is how it goes.

Most people are surprised by how low this number is. 6% after 10 years seems very low, doesn't it?

As a side note, this 6% figure is actually ambiguous.
According to National Tax Agency data, it is 6.3%. In the White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises, it is 66.5%.

Yet, only the phrase "6% after 10 years" is spreading with such impact.

The 66.5% from the White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises is also ambiguous. This is because it is based on the Teikoku Databank database. In other words, it only surveyed corporations and does not include sole proprietorships.

Regarding the 6%, there is also ambiguity because this data includes venture companies, which results in a lower number.


But in any case, it has no clear basis and is extremely unclear, isn't it?

Even if you think about it calmly, there is no way "the survival rate of companies is 6% after 10 years."


For example, suppose you went to eat pufferfish.
Delicious dishes like pufferfish hot pot, pufferfish sashimi, and deep-fried pufferfish are lined up in front of you.

If the chef told you before you ate, "The survival rate for this pufferfish dish is 6%," would you eat it? (laughs)

I probably wouldn't be able to eat it.

100 people eat it and 6 survive. Hahaha.
Even Kaiun-san wouldn't eat it.

That is the kind of ratio it is.

Doesn't this end up crushing the buds of entrepreneurship?


It is a gut feeling I have after being in business for over 10 years, but no one around Kaiun-san has gone out of business within 10 years.

At the very least, this is looking at business-related matters that Kaiun-san is involved in. Even when looking at other acquaintances' businesses, there are no bankruptcies.

On the other hand, bankruptcies of restaurants are noticeable.

Have you ever noticed that a restaurant near you in your own town has gone out of business?

The number of stores forced to close due to a lack of cash flow, caused by factors like rising costs of goods, is increasing.

This means that the aforementioned data itself is ambiguous and completely meaningless.

The best thing would be to have survival rate data for each industry or business genre, which could serve as a reference.


However, I suspect there are people who might reconsider or give up on starting a business because of such "pseudo-data."

If so, that is very regrettable.

There is no need to take such ambiguous data seriously and give up on starting a business. More importantly, it is crucial to be prepared to face a turning point in your life.

Starting a business is similar to deciding to get married. When you decide to get married, you imagine the future, think "Alright! I can do this," and jump into an uncertain, unknown world, don't you?

Starting a business is the same. You think about various things, but there is much you won't know until you try, so you make up your mind and take the plunge to get started.

You don't know what lies ahead in marriage or in business. But many people take on the challenge, even while feeling uncertain.

If you knew what was ahead, it wouldn't be interesting. It's interesting because it's unknown.

However, you must keep the essentials in mind. That's right: sales and cash flow. These are the essentials.

Companies have issues with securing human resources, but that is not necessarily the case for sole proprietors.


If you are considering starting a business, please take this to heart: it is perfectly fine to have multiple businessesthat is what I mean.

For example, suppose you open a hair salon. In the middle of running it, you decide you want to run a Pilates school. That is completely fine.

For example, suppose you open a ramen shop. The business doesn't go well, so you close it down.

This is what is not okay.

It's a waste, isn't it? After you've gone to the trouble of starting a business. You know, it's fine to run multiple businesses.

If you were Kaiun-san, you would close the ramen shop and open a "Ramen Dojo." You would gather students and teach them how to make ramen.

Actually, there is a certain number of people who want to learn how to make ramen. We are in such a ramen boom. There are many people who want to learn from a professional and enjoy making it themselves.

This is where you monetize.

Running a ramen shop, failing, and then closing down—this is too short-sighted. There must be other moves you can make.

In other words, no matter the industry, change is necessary to survive.
Do this while doing that. Or, if this doesn't work, do that instead.

Even if you fall, grab a handful of gravel and stand back up. Something like that, perhaps.

The good thing about being a business owner is that you have the freedom to do many things.
When a salaryman is assigned to a department, they work in that same department until they are transferred.

They have no choice in the matter...


Even if the survival rate were 95% over 10 years, those who are going to close their business will still close it.
It is not a matter of numbers, but a personal issue.

Are you prepared to ignore the numbers and bet your life on entrepreneurship?

Narihiko Kaiun



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