Why Doesn't the Middle East Use Groundwater?

Subtitle

Oil States and the Choice of "Future Water"

Introduction | To be precise, it is not that they are not using groundwater

The Middle East has no water.

This is a common misconception, but it is not accurate.

There are few large rivers or lakes on the surface, and precipitation is limited.

However, vast aquifers exist underground.

If you dig a well, you can get water.

In fact, Middle Eastern countries have long used groundwater for drinking and agriculture. Even today, the over-extraction of groundwater remains a major issue in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Gulf states.

Therefore, the real question is not,

Why doesn't the Middle East use groundwater?

but rather,

Why can't they continue to use groundwater as they have until now?

Having water and being able to continue using that water are not the same thing.

Some of the water sleeping underground is barely replenished on a human timescale.

If we use it now, it will not remain for the next generation.

The water problem in the Middle East is not about the presence or absence of water.

It is a question of time: how much of the future's water should we consume to support the present?

Chapter 1 | Fossil water is the rain of the past

Beneath the Middle East and North Africa lies old groundwater known as fossil water.

This does not mean the water itself has turned into a fossil, like oil.

It is water that fell as rain during an era when the climate was wetter than it is today, seeped into the gaps between sand and rock, and has been trapped underground for a long time.

Some of the groundwater used for agriculture in Saudi Arabia is said to date back to the last glacial period, having been underground for about 20,000 years. In the Gulf region, isotope analysis has confirmed instances of groundwater that is tens of thousands of years old.

Some groundwater is replenished relatively quickly by annual rain and river water.

However, in the deep aquifers of arid regions, there are some where the replenishment rate under the current climate is extremely low.

It is not necessarily the case that not a single drop is replenished.

But the speed at which nature returns it is far too slow compared to the speed at which it is being pumped out.

In that case, it must effectively be treated as a non-renewable resource.

In other words, fossil water is closer to

savings inherited from the past, rather than a river underground.

Using rainwater or river water is like spending the income that comes in every year.

Using fossil water is like spending the principal that has been accumulated over a long period of time.

Even for the same liter of water, its temporal significance is not the same.

Chapter 2 | Pumping water is pumping time

When water comes out of a well, people think of it as a current resource.

But fossil water is not water created in the present.

It is water left behind by the climate of thousands or tens of thousands of years ago.

The water pumped in one hour today might take longer than a human lifespan to be returned by nature.

At this moment, what humans are pumping is not just water.

It is the geological time itself that was stored underground.

There is a structure similar to oil.

Oil is also a carbon resource that the Earth has stored over a long period of time.

Using it makes things convenient.

Society becomes prosperous.

It saves people from hunger and inconvenience.

However, it does not return at the same speed it is used.

For an oil state to use large amounts of fossil water was also a double consumption of resources:

selling the oil stored in the past,

and using that power to pump the water stored in the past.
Just because it is underground does not mean it is surplus.

Just because it can be extracted does not mean it should be.

Chapter 3 | The experiment that turned the desert into wheat fields

Saudi Arabia once conducted large-scale agriculture in the desert.

From the mid-1980s, they pumped up deep fossil water and used circular irrigation equipment called center-pivot systems to produce wheat, vegetables, and fruits.

Seen from a satellite, countless green circles are lined up in the dry desert.

It looked like a scene of humans conquering the desert.

That water was not water replenished annually by modern rain, but fossil water that had been trapped underground for a long time.

With oil revenue, they:

dug wells,

ran pumps,

built irrigation equipment,

and invested in fertilizers and machinery.

In this way, a desert unsuitable for agriculture was turned into a granary.

Saudi Arabia achieved self-sufficiency in wheat and at one point even became an exporter.

However, that prosperity was not built on a water cycle that is renewed every year.

It was built by spending the underground principal.

Every time wheat was harvested, the underground water level dropped.

The more green circles there were, the less water remained for the future.

It was agricultural production, but at the same time, it was also the work of converting ancient water into grain.

Chapter 4 | The choice to stop self-sufficiency

For a nation, food self-sufficiency is important.

Even if imports from abroad stop, they can feed their own people.

They can withstand fluctuations in international prices.

They can keep agriculture within the country.

Generally, it is thought that the higher the self-sufficiency rate, the stronger the nation.

However, in water-scarce countries, the story is reversed.

To be self-sufficient in wheat, they use large amounts of groundwater that will never return.

Is that truly independence?

If you lose the water essential for life in exchange for food self-sufficiency, that self-sufficiency is deepening another dependency.

In 2008, against the backdrop of depleting groundwater resources, Saudi Arabia shifted to a policy of gradually reducing wheat production. While the original domestic wheat production plan ended by 2016, some wheat production has been permitted again under certain conditions due to adjustments regarding the reduction of forage crops. Therefore, it is more accurate to understand this as a major shift in agricultural policy that uses large amounts of groundwater, rather than "permanently and completely abandoning wheat."

This choice is not merely a defeat.

Instead of making wheat with their own water, they buy foreign wheat with oil revenue.

By lowering food self-sufficiency, they curb the depletion of groundwater.

In other words, it is a paradoxical national strategy of protecting water by not being self-sufficient in food.

Of course, there are dangers in relying on imports.

International prices might soar.

Transport routes might be closed.

Exporting countries might have poor harvests.

But if you use up fossil water, that water cannot be recovered even if you pay for it.

Food can be bought from multiple countries.

A lost aquifer cannot be bought back in a short period.

What to be self-sufficient in and what to import.

That is not just a matter of pride.

It is a matter of distinguishing between what can be substituted and what is difficult to substitute.

Chapter 5 | What is lost when groundwater is extracted?

The first thing that happens with the over-extraction of groundwater is not that the water suddenly disappears entirely.

First, the groundwater level drops.

Deeper wells are needed to get the same amount of water.

The energy required to run pumps also increases.

Shallow wells become unusable, and the gap between those who can get water and those who cannot widens.

Furthermore, depending on the location and geology of the aquifer, the fine clay and silt that make up the ground can be compressed, leading to land subsidence.

Once a stratum is strongly compressed, it may not recover the same water storage capacity as before, even if the groundwater level returns.

In coastal areas, excessive pumping of groundwater can cause seawater to enter the aquifer, leading to the salinization of freshwater.

When this happens, even if the water itself remains, it becomes difficult to use for drinking or agriculture.

Therefore, the limit of groundwater is not just the moment the well runs completely dry.

The water level drops.

Salinity increases.

Pumping costs rise.

The water storage capacity of the strata is lost.

Water quality deteriorates.

Due to such changes, even if water exists, it ceases to be a usable resource.

The depletion of resources is not just about physically reaching zero.

It is also about society no longer being able to use it safely and rationally.

Chapter 6 | Is water wasted if it is not used?

Resources have value only when they are used.

It is natural to think so.

If current humans starve, there is no point in leaving water underground.

If you use water, you can grow crops.

You can run industries.

You can enrich lives.

Therefore, this is not a story about not using a single drop of fossil water.

The question is:

What will you use it for?
How much will you use?
Are there alternatives?
How long will you keep it?

Will you use it for everyday large-scale agriculture?

Will you use it as drinking water to support the population?

Will you keep it as an emergency water source for disasters or war?

Will you keep it as a reserve for when desalination facilities or import networks stop?

Even for the same groundwater, its value changes depending on the use.

Leaving fossil water unused is not the same as doing nothing.

It is also about preserving future options without consuming them.

If usable water remains underground, future humans can choose whether to use it or not.

If current humans use it all up, future humans will not have the option itself.

The value of leaving resources is not just the remaining amount.

It is about leaving a future that has not yet been decided in a state where it can be decided.

Chapter 7 | Is "not using" truly virtuous?

However, we must not turn the conservation of groundwater into a simple moral tale.

Instead of using groundwater, one might use large amounts of energy for seawater desalination.

By importing food, one might consume the farmland and water of other countries.

There is a possibility of shifting the environmental burden to the sea or abroad while protecting one's own water.

While the Middle East and North Africa region accounts for more than half of the world's desalination capacity, it also faces other problems such as the over-extraction of groundwater and dependence on water supply infrastructure.

Therefore, one cannot simply divide them into:

Countries that do not use groundwater are ethical,
Countries that use groundwater are unplanned.

The burden of water changes its form.

If you don't pump it from the ground, you make it from the sea.

If you don't grow it domestically, you buy it from abroad.

If you save water, you use energy or capital instead.

Protecting one resource also means using another.

Therefore, what we should ask is not just,

Did you use groundwater?

We must also look at where the burden has shifted due to that choice.

Final Chapter | Water is an option left for the future

It is not that Middle Eastern countries are not using groundwater.

Rather, they have been using it.

They have turned deserts into farmland, grown cities, and supported people's lives.

And it is because they used it that they learned.

Having water underground and being able to use that water forever are not the same thing.

Fossil water is not a gift that arrives every year.

It is a legacy left by the climate of the past.

If you use it, the present becomes prosperous.

If you leave it, it becomes an option for the future.

Which is correct cannot be decided easily.

Current humans also need water.

Future humans also need water.

Therefore, the real problem is not,

To use or not to use.

It is for what purpose, how much to use, and how much to leave.

Food might be importable.

Energy sources might be replaceable.

Technology might also advance.

However, there is currently no life that does not need water itself.

Water is not just a resource.

It is a prerequisite for people to exist in the future.

Therefore, the decision to leave groundwater is not just about frugality.

It is also an expression of intent toward future humans:

I am leaving something that you can still choose.

What is sleeping under the Middle East is not just water.

It is the future right to decide when to use it.

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