[Urgent Forecast] Decoding the Nikkei Stock Average's 'Sharp Rebound' with Gemini Original Chart v2

Hello.

Thank you for opening this article. Today, I am delivering the latest market outlook for the Nikkei Stock Average, combining unique information sources with AI analysis.

In creating this article, I leveraged my perspective as a copywriter. Rather than just listing data, I aim to unravel the 'story' of the market, providing an analysis that is intuitive and deeply convincing for everyone, from investment beginners to intermediate traders.

The end of July: Where surging stock prices and major US-Japan events collide

I will answer the questions every investor is asking—'Is this rise real?' and 'How should I move next?'—with sharp analysis from both technical and fundamental perspectives. Please read until the end.

Introduction: The reality of the 'buy-dominant' market predicted by AI

As predicted in advance by AI and analysts, the Nikkei Stock Average is showing a significant sharp rebound as of 9:30 AM on July 31, 2026.

Buying became dominant immediately after the start of trading on July 31, and the index was bought up from the previous day's closing price of 61,867 yen, recording a sharp rebound that briefly topped the 65,000 yen level.

Is this 'significant rebound' temporary, or is it the beginning of a full-scale trend?

In this article, I will explain the future market outlook based on both technical analysis using the latest 'Gemini Original Chart' and fundamental analysis that incorporates the latest economic trends in Japan and the US.

Technical Analysis: Decoding the 'footprints' of stock prices from moving averages

Here, I will analyze various charts from the 'Gemini Original Chart' that I have uniquely constructed to predict the current position of the stock price and its future movements.

From comprehensive chart analysis, the following decisive characteristics emerge.

● Trends in the daily/3-month chart: 'Success' in buying on dips

After recording a year-to-date high of 72,366 yen on June 25, the stock price entered a correction phase.

Although there were moments of spreading anxiety as it continued to trade below the 25-day and 75-day moving averages, it showed resilience at the 60,000 yen level and rebounded sharply on July 31, 'gapping up'.

However, looking at the 3-month chart, a dead cross has recently formed where the 5-day moving average fell below the 25-day moving average, so it is necessary to be aware that it remains within a short-term downward trend. The 65,000 yen level, where the upside was capped in the morning session, also overlaps with the downward trend line, and a transition to a range-bound market with support around 61,800 yen (near the previous day's closing price) and resistance at 65,000 yen is also anticipated.

※ Based on observations of the futures market, it is possible that many investors judged 'this price is a buy' at the start of today's cash morning session, leading to autonomous rebounds and dip-buying aimed at the 25-day and 75-day lines.

● Trends in the weekly/1-year chart: 'Maintenance' of the long-term trend

Focusing on a longer-term perspective (13-week moving average and 26-week moving average), the long-term upward trend itself has not collapsed.

In the upward wave from the year-to-date low of 51,063 yen set at the end of March, this correction can be seen as an appropriate formation of a dip near the support line.

Fundamental Analysis: The 'Two Powerful Forces' Driving the Market

Behind the rise in stock prices are two powerful forces: 'tech stock gains in the US market' and 'major domestic policy events'.

● Tailwinds from the US market and AI/semiconductor sectors: Materialization of AI investment

Against the backdrop of strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon, active investment in AI and cloud businesses has been reaffirmed, leading to a sharp rise in semiconductor stocks in the US market.

Following this trend, strong buybacks are entering 'AI/semiconductor-related stocks' in the Japanese market as well, such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Fujikura.

● Exchange rates and the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting: A complex 'balance'

On the other hand, what is complicating the market is the exchange rate.

The dollar exchange rate has shifted rapidly from the 163 yen range to the 159 yen range, but this is a complex phase where caution regarding intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan (yen appreciation pressure) and dollar buying due to emergencies such as rising tensions in the Middle East (yen depreciation pressure) are competing. A rapid shift toward a stronger yen leads to caution regarding the performance of export companies.

In such a situation, the results of the 'Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting' scheduled to be announced around noon today and Governor Ueda's press conference are the market's biggest focus. If there is a change in policy or stance, there is a possibility that the yen will appreciate further, and while the shift of funds to bank and insurance stocks will accelerate, it is also expected that uncertainty will spread throughout the market.

The 'Two Future Scenarios' Investors Should Pay Attention To

What scenarios should investors anticipate for this late July market and beyond August?

Based on the scenario comparison of the Gemini Original Chart, we are anticipating the following two.

■ Bullish Scenario: AI-led 'Re-ascent'

Condition: The Bank of Japan shows a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, and the rapid appreciation of the yen pauses.

Future: Driven by semiconductors and data center-related stocks against the backdrop of high US tech stocks, the market aims for the year-to-date high (72,366 yen) again.

■ Cautious Scenario: 'Turbulence' from accelerated yen appreciation

Condition: Due to the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, the yen's appreciation accelerates to the 158 yen range.

Future: Selling of export-related stocks intensifies, and profit-taking increases toward the afternoon session. A development where the battle around 65,000 yen continues.

Summary: Maintain a calm 'eye' on your own investment strategy

The stock market at the end of July is supported by a sense of technical bottoming and the strength of US tech stocks.

However, there is strong short-term uncertainty due to factors such as the Bank of Japan meeting and currency trends, creating an environment prone to volatile price movements.

Rather than being swayed solely by the price movements of the index as a whole, it is necessary to calmly assess how individual stocks are being bought and their correlation with exchange rates.

In particular, whether the price breaks above or below the 61,800 yen to 65,000 yen range will be a crucial signal that determines the future trend.

Without rushing, let's identify opportunities and build a calm investment strategy at your own pace.

*This article does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stocks.