Science Of Climate Change Adaptation

🌍 The atmosphere is getting thirstier: are we ready for more extreme droughts? A new study published in Nature shows that rising atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) — or atmospheric thirst — is now responsible for nearly 40% of the increase in drought severity over the past 40 years. 💧 Even where rainfall hasn’t declined, droughts are worsening because warmer, drier, windier air pulls more moisture from soils, rivers, crops and forests. In 2022 alone: 🔹 30% of global land faced moderate to extreme drought 🔹 Global drought-affected land expanded by 74% 🔹 Severe impacts were seen across Europe, Africa, Australia, and the US — disrupting water supply, agriculture, hydropower, and entire supply chains. Drought can no longer be assessed simply by measuring rainfall deficits — we must also monitor how much water the atmosphere demands as temperatures rise. This is the new frontier of #climaterisk, which means: ⚠ Increasing operational risks for agriculture, energy, food security, and insurance ⚠ Higher volatility in commodity markets due to crop failures and water shortages ⚠ Greater stress on hydropower generation and energy-water nexus systems ⚠ Supply chain disruptions in water-intensive industries This is why integrating climate intelligence into corporate governance, risk management, and financial planning is becoming essential — a message I continue to advocate through my work. 🌡 The future of drought risk demands new thinking: ✅ Build AED into national drought monitoring systems ✅ Expand early warning capacity ✅ Support water-smart business strategies ✅ Promote nature-based solutions for moisture retention and soil health ✅ Align adaptation finance with emerging climate science the science is clear: climate adaptation is not a distant conversation, it’s an immediate operational imperative. https://lnkd.in/e8s4riFS

NEW RESEARCH - WHY THE ENERGY TRANSITION IS DISRUPTIVE & COULD BE MUCH FASTER THAN WE THINK: The clean energy transition isn’t just about swapping out old tech for new—it’s a complex, non-linear process full of feedback loops, tipping points, and unexpected consequences. Our new “Systems Archetypes of the Energy Transition” brief is a must-read for anyone shaping policy, investing, or innovating in this space. Key takeaways: 1) Feedback loops drive change: Reinforcing loops (like learning-by-doing and economies of scale) have made solar, wind, and batteries cheaper and more widespread, often outpacing even the boldest forecasts. 2) Path dependence is real: Early advantages for a technology (think BEVs vs. hydrogen cars) can snowball into market dominance, making policy choices and timing critical. 3) Limits and synergies: As renewables grow, market dynamics like “cannibalisation” can dampen investment—unless we design markets and storage solutions to keep the momentum going. 4) Policy design is everything: Well-intentioned fixes (like price caps or broad subsidies) can backfire, while smart, targeted interventions can unlock positive feedbacks across sectors. 5) Tipping points and decline: The decline of fossil fuels isn’t just a mirror image of clean tech growth—it comes with its own feedbacks, risks, and opportunities for a just transition. The brief also offers practical guidance on using causal loop diagrams and participatory systems mapping—powerful tools for understanding and managing the complexity of the transition. If you’re working on energy, climate, or innovation policy, I highly recommend giving this a read. Let’s move beyond linear thinking and embrace the systems view—because the future will be shaped by those who understand the dynamics beneath the surface. This briefing was led by Simon Sharpe at S-Curve Economics CIC, Max Collett 柯墨, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, me at Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford & Oriel College, Oxford & the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) and Michael Grubb at UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources.

#Stormwater Solutions in the #GCC: From Challenge to Opportunity The GCC region, traditionally known for its arid climate, has recently experienced unprecedented rainfall events, underscoring the urgent need for innovative stormwater management strategies. Last year, some GCC countries faced challenges with stormwater: - In April 2024, the UAE experienced its heaviest rainfall in 75 years, with up to 259 mm recorded over three days. Dubai International Airport, one of the world's busiest, saw more than 1,500 flights delayed or canceled due to flooding. - Oman received approximately 180 mm of rainfall in some regions, leading to significant flooding and loss of life. - Bahrain faced severe flooding after heavy thunderstorms, recording its second-highest rainfall event in history. These events highlight the pressing need to reconceptualize stormwater—not as a nuisance but as a valuable resource. Adopting a zero-liquid discharge mindset ensures that every drop of rain is captured, treated, and reused, turning potential hazards into assets. Innovative Solutions are becoming more effective: - #SmartDrainage systems that use AI to predict rainfall patterns and adjust water flow in real-time to prevent urban flooding. - Permeable pavements that allow rainwater to seep into the ground, reducing surface runoff and replenishing groundwater reserves. - Stormwater harvesting systems that collect and store rainwater for irrigation, cooling, or industrial use, reducing reliance on desalination. - Underground water tunnels, inspired by systems in Singapore, that can divert excess water away from urban centers. - #NaturebasedSolutions such as restoring natural waterways and expanding green spaces to enhance the land’s ability to absorb and manage rainwater. Beyond #Flood Prevention: A robust stormwater strategy offers multiple benefits. It strengthens water security by reducing dependence on desalination. It lowers infrastructure repair costs caused by repeated flood damage. It also opens up economic opportunities in urban planning, water technology, and #infrastructure resilience. Rain is becoming an integral part of the GCC’s climate reality. The choice is between reacting to floods or proactively designing cities that harness stormwater as an asset. With the right investments, the region can lead in innovative water management. Amer Lahham Filippo Ghizzoni Elias Al Akiki Ghadi Turk Hussein Khalife Kearney Kearney Middle East and Africa #CenterforSustainableFuture #IdeaoftheDay

🚨 Flood Risk is Rising – But There’s a Better Way Nature holds the key to flood resilience. (Here’s how we can unlock its potential.) First, a mindset shift: Instead of reacting to floods, we need to adapt to them. The latest Environment Agency report is clear: 📍 Flood risk in the UK is increasing tenfold – from 1 in 100 years to 1 in 10 years 📍 Homes at risk will rise from 5 million to 8 million 📍 Infrastructure is already feeling the impact – roads, railways, supermarkets, and distribution centres This isn’t a “what if” scenario for 2050. It’s happening now. ➜ 1. The real problem isn’t just water—it’s awareness. Most people don’t realise how vulnerable our infrastructure is. We need a fundamental shift in climate adaptation, investment, and urban planning. ➜ 2. The solution is already here. The good news? Nature has been managing water for millennia. The latest EA report highlights Nature-based solutions that work: ✅ Peatland & river restoration – slows water flow, reduces floods ✅ Beaver reintroductions – nature’s own flood engineers ✅ Oyster reefs, kelp, & seagrass – coastal protection & biodiversity boosts ✅ The ‘benefits wheel’ – how these strategies improve air quality, ecosystems & resilience Nature isn’t just valuable—it’s critical infrastructure. ➜ 3. We need to think at a catchment level. A fragmented approach won’t work. We must manage water from source to sea, integrating wetlands, rivers, and coastlines into a holistic strategy. 💡 The Call to Action: 🌱 Shift from emergency response to proactive adaptation 🌍 Embed nature into our urban planning and investment strategies 💰 Recognise that restoring nature isn’t philanthropy—it’s smart infrastructure 📢 The challenge is urgent, but so are the solutions. Who’s ready to rethink flood resilience? 🔗 Read more: 🌍 Enhancing flood and coastal erosion risk digital services: https://lnkd.in/eb5dQSpm 🌊 Natural Flood Management evidence: https://lnkd.in/eb5dQSpm Drop your thoughts below 👇 #ClimateAdaptation #FloodResilience #NatureBasedSolutions

Why is sustainable transport essential for greener cities and a better world? Global #transportation accounts for 25% of CO2 emissions worldwide. 91% of the energy used in motorised land, sea and air transport remains derived from #fossilfuels. Without major diversification towards clean and low-carbon transport, this figure is set to increase by nearly 60% by 2050. This is a particularly urgent issue in urban zones of the world. Our cities occupy just 3% of the Earth’s land, but drive between 60-80% of energy consumption and are responsible for a staggering 75% of global CO2 emissions. Cities are also the engines of the world’s economy and transport is vital to promote connectivity, trade and employment in our urban hubs. Therefore, we’re going to need to overhaul the way transport works and how our cities are built. We need transformation to make #sustainablemobility a reality.  The good news is that we do have solutions that exist, like #EVs and renewable aviation fuel. But we need to further accelerate change through a global concerted effort to support clean energy-powered mass transit systems, from electrifying our marine networks to railways. We also need to make our urban environments geared towards carbon-free travel with biking and walking lanes.  All of these actions will require not only new innovations, nature-positive city planning and financing, but indeed #collaboration across industries and borders to fully steer our societies towards a sustainable path.  As individuals, we can also take a stand by embracing car-free modes of transport and prioritise the planet in our daily travel decisions. Whether that means carpooling and opting for public transport to minimise traffic congestion, or choosing to join the #flygskam movement to go flight-free as much as possible. Every little bit counts.  As the United Nations has stated before: Sustainable transport is not an end in itself, but a means to achieve sustainable development. By making environmentally-friendly transportation widespread, accessible and affordable to all in cities and beyond, we move closer to reaching multiple goals—climate resilience, disaster mitigation, global net-zero, healthy breathable air, and inclusive human settlements. These interrelated targets are all laid out under #SDG9 and #SDG11.  #WorldSustainableTransportDay is celebrated annually to highlight the importance of green mobility, reminding us that we will only achieve our #GlobalGoals with clean transport systems. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres has emphasised, we have ‘no time to waste — let’s get moving’. With sustainable transport, we can pave the route towards a greener, healthier and more equitable world. #SDGs #SustainableTransport #WSTD

🇪🇺 As Europe moves full steam ahead with the European Green Deal, ensuring our industries remain competitive while decarbonizing is a top priority. One promising pathway? Blending mandates—policies that mix a small percentage of renewable or alternative fuels (like electric natural gas “e-NG”) into conventional gas supplies. Here’s why blending mandates are worth watching: 1️⃣ They’re practical: Using “drop-in” renewable fuels (RFNBOs) like e-NG requires minimal changes to existing pipelines, storage facilities, and infrastructure.  2️⃣ They’re scalable: Regions like Québec and Japan are already showing how blending mandates can quickly spur investment, reduce reliance on government subsidies, and attract funding for large-scale projects.  3️⃣ They’re growth-friendly: By stimulating domestic industries around electrolysis and low-carbon technologies, blending mandates can make decarbonization a real driver of industrial innovation, rather than a drag on competitiveness.  4️⃣ They’re aligned with EU’s ambitious climate targets: With the Renewable Energy Directives (RED II & III) calling for 250+ TWh of RFNBOs by 2030, blending mandates offer a clear framework to hit those targets without sacrificing our industrial backbone. By incorporating blending mandates into national energy and industrial plans, the EU can forge a unified path that makes the energy transition not just an environmental necessity, but an economic opportunity as well. 🔗 Check out my new piece on the World Economic Forum Blog, if you want the deeper dive: https://lnkd.in/eppJFNtJ 🤝 I’ll also be at the World Economic Forum in Davos next week—if you’re going too, let’s connect and talk about how we can make blending mandates work for Europe’s green future! #DAVOS #WEF2025 #Decarbonizationgoals #energytransition #blendingmandate #eNG #efuel #climatetarget #EuropeanGreenDeal

In a first for the carbon market, Gold Standard and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) have launched a new methodology designed to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuel generators with renewable energy systems, opening a new source of finance for clean energy transitions in areas where electricity systems remain heavily dependent on diesel and other fossil fuels. Revenues from carbon credits can help finance clean power deployment while supporting workers, communities and local economies through the transition.  This approach helps address a key barrier to early fossil fuel phase-out: the upfront cost of deploying clean energy alternatives while ensuring energy access and economic stability as fossil fuel generators are phased out. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dS5Gm2cp

Conservation in a hotter world For most of its history, conservation has meant preservation: setting aside reserves, managing fisheries, & safeguarding livelihoods in ways that assumed tomorrow would look much like today. That assumption is no longer tenable. The question is not whether ecosystems can be frozen in time, but whether they can adapt quickly enough to survive. Oceans on the move Few sectors show the upheaval more clearly than fisheries. Warming seas are already driving species into cooler waters. Small island nations, dependent on tuna migrating through their exclusive zones, face sharp revenue losses as fish drift into the high seas. Elsewhere, once-reliable stocks are collapsing, depriving coastal communities of food & income. Traditional management—catch limits, by-catch rules, & marine reserves—was designed for stable conditions. It looks fragile when the fish themselves are shifting thousands of kilometers away. Adaptation is possible. Scientists urge investment in dynamic tools, real-time monitoring, & governance systems that anticipate redistribution rather than cling to historic boundaries. Without these, disputes over access will intensify, undermining the very livelihoods conservation once promised to sustain. Parks that move with the climate On land, the dilemma is just as stark. Most protected areas were drawn for 20th-century biodiversity. As habitats shift uphill or poleward, species follow, leaving reserves empty of their emblematic wildlife. Analysts now call for “climate-smart” parks—larger, better connected, & able to accommodate change. Corridors once considered a luxury are becoming essential. Experiments exist. Manu National Park in Peru spans rainforest to high Andes, creating a staircase for species fleeing heat. Yet such cases are rare. Most reserves are too fragmented to offer safe passage. Success also depends on governance: areas must be co-managed with local people, whose decisions & knowledge shape resilience. Approaches that enable adaptation are key. The new conservation toolbox Ideas once dismissed as heresy are entering the mainstream. Assisted colonization, the relocation of species to climatically suitable areas, is being tested. Rewilding, long a romantic aspiration, is now strategic: restoring bison, horses, or predators can help landscapes resist fire, recycle nutrients, & retain water. Such interventions carry risks, but inaction carries more. Preparing for disorder Conservation is not obsolete but must be reimagined. Size, connectivity, flexibility, & local participation are the new watchwords. Success will be measured not against a lost baseline but by whether ecosystems retain enough function to support life under radically altered conditions. The future will be hotter, more chaotic, & full of surprises. The task is not to restore a vanished past but to secure a livable future. Whether today’s efforts remain relevant will depend on how quickly nostalgia gives way to resilience.

The global logistics sector is responsible for 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions 🌍 That footprint places it among the most critical sectors in the climate and ESG conversation. Every shipment, warehouse, and transport route is connected to carbon, energy and material use across global value chains. Decarbonizing logistics has shifted from ambition to expectation, driven by climate risk, regulations, investor pressure and Scope 3 disclosure requirements. Sustainability is now being embedded into fuels, fleets, infrastructure and data systems at scale. Four major shifts define this transition. Low-carbon fuels. Electrified vehicles. Green logistics infrastructure. Digital systems that reduce emissions through efficiency. Emerging markets are demonstrating fast progress by adapting solutions to real operational and financial conditions. Hydrogen trucks, sustainable aviation fuel, zero-carbon ports, solar-powered warehouses and AI-based route planning are becoming integrated into daily operations. Circular logistics and reverse supply chains are cutting waste, reducing material intensity and lowering embedded emissions. Key barriers still exist. Fragmented policy frameworks. High capital requirements. Restricted access to green financing for small and mid-sized operators. Another challenge is data. Without standardized, reliable emissions data, ESG reporting remains incomplete and decision-making stays reactive. The next phase of green logistics depends on aligned policy, blended finance, skilled workers and cross-sector collaboration at scale. Transforming logistics is a climate imperative and a competitiveness strategy for a low-carbon economy. Source: World Economic Forum – Green Logistics Innovation for Emerging Markets (2025) #sustainability #esg

Local Weather Data x Critical Risk Management We talk a lot about environmental impacts on high-risk activities—like wind speed & direction impacting crane lifts, work at height, and heavy equipment operations—but how representative is the weather data we rely on? Most of the time, we use forecasted conditions from national meteorological services which are great for general awareness but often don’t reflect site-specific conditions. A forecast from a weather station 30km away doesn’t capture sudden wind gusts at a crane lift zone, temperature variations on-site, or microclimates created by terrain. Having local, real-time weather data at the actual worksite enables better risk management decisions. Instead of relying on broad forecasts, organisations can monitor live conditions at the precise location where critical work is happening. PLUS you get your own comprehensive data set for analytics... In the photos I'm holding a Davis EnviroMonitor Gateway LTE & Vantage Pro2 GroWeather Sensor Suite which is an example of a local weather monitoring system. This system provides real-time, hyper-local weather data directly from the worksite, enabling data-driven risk management decisions. It delivers real-time updates every 2.5 seconds; has wind speed, temperature, humidity, and rainfall monitoring plus solar radiation and evapotranspiration data which is also valuable for heat stress risk. This model has LTE connectivity (basically you can stick a SIM card in it) for remote monitoring and integration with cloud platforms. These systems aren't that expensive and offer new insights for local risk management that I've found can make a pretty big difference to your risk control strategy. Is anyone else implementing local weather systems for crane ops or other critical risk management? #safetytech #safetyinnovation #IoT