The SoFi USD Impact (8) - The "Market Assumptions" You Need to Know Before Reading the Revenue Structure
*This is a continuation from the previous article.
Before we read into the revenue of the crypto asset trading market (B2B) in future installments, I would like you to understand the following once again.
<Necessary Assumption Understanding 1: Revenue Structure>
・Tether generates massive operating income from its stablecoin business.
・Circle also generates massive operating income from its stablecoin business.In Q3 2025, Circle generated $711 million in operating income (= approx. $2.8 billion/year) from the backing assets (reserves) for its $74 billion in stablecoin circulation. *SoFi's final profit in its 2025 full-year guidance is $455 million.
However, since USDC is a "joint venture" with Coinbase, approximately 60% of the operating income is distributed to distribution partners centered around Coinbase, resulting in structurally limited profits remaining for Circle. Additionally, Compensation Expenses (personnel costs including stock-based compensation) are significant as a line item for Circle.
On the other hand, in the case of SoFi, unlike Circle, no revenue sharing is required. Furthermore, since the business foundation is already built, it is extremely unlikely that personnel costs will significantly inflate just because they have started a stablecoin business.
In other words, SoFi has a structure where stablecoin operating income is not distributed externally like it is at Circle, nor is it diluted by personnel costs, allowing it to remain almost entirely as profit.
Therefore, it is incorrect to conclude that "the stablecoin business is not very profitable" by looking only at Circle's profit levels.
<Necessary Assumption Understanding 2: Competitive Environment>
・As of December 2025, according to DefiLlama data, it is an oligopolistic market of USDT/USDC with a 60% share for USDT and a 25% share for USDC.
・However, USDT will likely lose momentum with a high probability.
・USDC cannot fill the void left by USDT.This is clearly demonstrated by the SVB shock.
・The possibility of GAFAM issuing a stablecoin is extremely low.
・Major banks like J.P. Morgan and Citigroup are also conducting proof-of-concept experiments for stablecoins. However, these are all limited to specific use cases such as corporate payments, and there will be no issuance of a general-purpose stablecoin that can be used by the general public (at least for the time being).
・The possibility of Visa/Mastercard issuing their own stablecoin is also extremely low.
・SoFi is the only fintech company in the U.S. that holds a banking license, possesses high technical capabilities, and is successful.
・SoFi will release a top-quality stablecoin in January 2026.
In the next installment and beyond, I will disclose the revenue structure.
[Editor's Note]
Although there is some overlap with the links above, I believe it contains a lot of useful information, so I would be happy if you could take the time to re-read the past posts. (I think your conviction will be deepened if you read the next installments after understanding the market structure. In particular, the following ③ to ⑥ are recommended as prior reading.)
1. Payment Revolution 2026: The SoFi USD Shock - Prologue "To a $1 Trillion Market Cap Company"
2. The SoFi USD Shock ① - The "Secret of Crypto Floats" That Only Banks Can Reach
3. The SoFi USD Shock ② - SoFi vs Robinhood: The "Banking License" That Determines Success or Failure
4. The SoFi USD Shock ③ - The Start of a "Raging" B2B Market Entry - Lessons from the FTX Collapse
5. The SoFi USD Shock ④ - The Decline of "USDT" Caused by the Shadow Protagonist "LP"
6. The SoFi USD Shock ⑤ - The Structural Limitations of the "Short-term Interim Champion" USDC
7. The SoFi USD Shock ⑥ - The Day We Converge Toward "Bank-Issued Stablecoins"
8. The SoFi USD Shock ⑦ - [Appetizer] Expected Revenue from "SoFi Crypto"
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