Summary of Current Data on Japan's Nursing Care Industry | Number of Facilities, Employees, and Salary Trends [2026 Edition]
"How big is the nursing care industry, really?"
"How much are facilities increasing?"
"Have salaries gone up compared to the past?"
"I hear there will be a shortage of caregivers in the future, but is that true?"
Many people who are interested in nursing care jobs or are currently working in the field often have these questions but struggle to grasp the "big picture."
In this article, we will organize the current state of Japan's nursing care industry using data from public sources such as the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, and the Cabinet Office.
This article is structured to allow you to grasp everything from the number of facilities and employees to salary trends and forecasts for the aging rate in one place.
Table of Contents
Grasping the "Now" of Japan's Nursing Care Industry at a Glance
Trends in the Number of Nursing Care Facilities and Establishments
Current Status of the Number of Care Staff and Future Shortage Forecasts
How Have Caregiver Salaries Changed Over the Last 10 Years?
Forecasts for Aging Rate and Nursing Care Demand (Up to 2040)
Summary: Why the Nursing Care Industry is a "Stable Growth Industry"
1. Grasping the "Now" of Japan's Nursing Care Industry at a Glance
First, let's check the scale of the nursing care industry as of 2026 with some numbers.
Start of the Long-Term Care Insurance System: 2000
Number of Long-Term Care Insurance Beneficiaries (Aged 65 and over): Approximately 36 million
Number of Long-Term Care Service Recipients: Over approximately 7 million
Total Number of Nursing Care Establishments/Facilities: Over approximately 280,000 (Total for all service types)
Number of Care Staff (Nursing Care Service Workers): Approximately 2.3 million
Long-Term Care Insurance Benefit Expenses: Approximately 12 trillion yen annually
Twenty-five years have passed since the start of the Long-Term Care Insurance System in 2000, and the Japanese nursing care industry has become firmly established as a "social infrastructure." It is a massive industry, comparable to the medical industry in both scale and budget.
2. Trends in the Number of Nursing Care Facilities and Establishments
Since the nursing care insurance system began in 2000, the number of facilities and establishments has increased rapidly.
Number of Major Facilities and Establishments (Approximate figures around 2024)
Special Nursing Homes for the Elderly (Tokuyo): Approx. 11,000 facilities
Public facilities for individuals with high care needs. There are many people on waiting lists nationwide, and demand remains high.
Geriatric Health Services Facilities (Roken): Approx. 4,200 facilities
Intermediate facilities focused on rehabilitation. Used by individuals aiming to return home from the hospital.
Day Care Services (Day Service): Approx. 24,000 establishments
Provides meals, bathing, and recreation on a day-trip basis. The most accessible type of nursing care facility nationwide.
Home-Visit Nursing Care Establishments: Approx. 35,000 establishments
Services that provide nursing care by visiting homes. Plays a central role in supporting the home life of the elderly.
Group Homes for Dementia Patients: Approx. 14,000 facilities
Facilities where a small number of people with dementia live together. A prime example of community-based care.
Nursing Care for Residents of Specified Facilities (Paid Nursing Homes, etc.): Over 5,000 facilities
Includes private paid nursing homes and housing for the elderly with services (Sakoju).
Changes in the Number of Facilities (2000 → 2026)
Compared to 2000, when the nursing care insurance system started, the total number of establishments has expanded tomore than 5 to 6 times the original amount. In particular, day services and home-visit nursing care have increased explosively over the past 20 years.
These figures indicate that the nursing care industry has expanded overwhelmingly as a 'place of work.' No matter where you are in the country, there is always nursing care work available.
3. Current Status of Nursing Care Staff and Future Shortage Projections
Current Number of Nursing Care Staff
According to a survey by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of nursing care staff (nursing care service workers) as of 2023 is approximately 2.3 million.
Compared to when the long-term care insurance system started in 2000, this is an increase of more than five times. This is proof that the profession of "nursing care worker" has become established and expanded in society.
Shortage projections for 2040
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare estimates that by 2040, more than approximately 2.8 million nursing care staff will be needed.
Compared to the current 2.3 million, a shortage of approximately 500,000 to 700,000 is expected.
2025: Approximately 2.43 million needed (a shortage of approximately 130,000 from current levels)
2030: Approximately 2.6 million needed (a shortage of approximately 300,000 from current levels)
2040: Approximately 2.8 million needed (a shortage of approximately 500,000 from current levels)
To fill this shortage, the government continues to implement the following measures.
Expansion of treatment improvement additions: Subsidy system to increase salaries for nursing care workers
Acceptance of foreign nursing care personnel: Expansion of EPA, technical intern training, and specified skilled worker programs
Support for the introduction of ICT and nursing care robots: Initiatives to reduce the burden on each individual staff member
Strengthening of Hello Work and job change support: Promoting entry from other industries
In other words, the reality that "there are not enough nursing care workers" conversely means the stability of the nursing care profession and the abundance of job openings.
4. How have nursing care workers' salaries changed over the last 10 years?
Nursing care workers' salaries have long been said to be "low," but thanks to government measures since 2013, they have been steadily improving.
Trends in monthly salary (full-time, monthly-salaried nursing care staff)
Around 2013: Average monthly salary of approximately 210,000 yen (excluding various allowances)
2015: Monthly salary increase due to the expansion of the treatment improvement addition (Addition II)
2019: Introduction of the specific treatment improvement addition. Priority allowances for experienced and skilled staff
2022: Monthly salary increase due to overlapping subsidies and wage increase measures for COVID-19 response
2026: Average monthly salary of approximately 320,000 to 330,000 yen (including treatment improvement additions)
In about 10 years, the monthly salary has improved by more than 100,000 yen. In terms of annual income, that is a difference of over 1.2 million yen.
Differences in annual income by qualification and position
Unqualified/Inexperienced: Annual income 2.5 to 3.3 million yen
Nursing Care Staff Initial Training: Annual income 3.0 to 3.7 million yen
Certified Care Worker (no night shifts): Annual income 3.3 to 4.2 million yen
Certified Care Worker (with night shifts, 4-5 times/month): Annual income 4.0 to 5.0 million yen
Care Manager (Long-term Care Support Specialist): Annual income 3.8 to 5.2 million yen
Facility Director/Manager: Annual income 5.0 to 7.0 million yen
Even for the same "care worker" role, there is a difference of over 2 million yen in annual income depending on qualifications and whether or not they work night shifts.
For details on the annual income and salary of care workers, please see The Reality of Care Worker Annual Income, Salary, and Take-home Pay | A Thorough Explanation of Treatment Improvements, Night Shift Allowances, and Regional Differences [2026 Edition] for a detailed explanation.
5. Aging Rate and Outlook for Nursing Care Demand (until 2040)
To understand how the scale of the nursing care industry will change in the future, the trend in the aging rate is the most clear indicator.
Trend in the aging rate (percentage of the population aged 65 and over)
1990: Approx. 12%
2000: Approx. 17% (Nursing Care Insurance System started)
2010: Approx. 23%
2020: Approx. 28%
2024: Approx. 29% (Approx. 36 million people)
2040 (forecast): Approx. 35% or more
Japan is aging at a rate unprecedented in the world. By 2040, it is expected that about 1 in 3 people in the population will be 65 or older.
Outlook for the number of nursing care insurance recipients
The number of people using long-term care insurance services (certified for long-term care or support) exceeded approximately 7 million as of 2024. It is projected to increase to approximately 9 to 10 million by 2040.
The number of facilities, the number of staff, and the scale of nursing care services will all continue to expand in the future.
Reasons why the "nursing care industry will not decline"
While many other industries are facing population decline and market shrinkage, the nursing care industry is one of the few fields where demand is guaranteed to continue growing.
Due to the declining birthrate, the number of children will decrease, but the number of elderly people will continue to increase for the next 20 years. A future where "the number of people needing nursing care decreases" will not arrive until at least the 2040s.
This is why the profession of a nursing care worker is being re-evaluated as an option for "acquiring a specialized skill."
The future prospects of nursing care workers are explained in detail in Future Prospects for Nursing Care Workers | Why Demand Will Continue to Grow in the Era of AI, Robots, and ICT [2026 Edition].
6. Summary: Why the nursing care industry is a "stable growth industry"
Summarizing the data in this article, we can see the following:
Number of facilities and offices: Expanded about 5 to 6 times in the 25 years since long-term care insurance started in 2000. There are workplaces everywhere in the country.
Number of employees: Currently about 2.3 million. It is expected that more than 2.8 million will be needed by 2040, with a shortage of over 500,000.
Salary: Monthly wages have improved by over 100,000 yen in the approximately 10 years from 2013 to 2026. The trend is expected to continue upward due to the continuation of the treatment improvement addition.
Demand: The aging rate is expected to exceed 35% in 2040. The number of long-term care insurance recipients is expected to increase from the current 7 million to over 9 million.
Although the nursing care profession often has an image of "low wages" and "hard work," looking at the numbers reveals that it is a growth industry that is supported by the government as a system and continues to expand in scale.
By acquiring qualifications and increasing your expertise, an annual income of 5 million yen or more is quite realistic.
The published data is based on materials released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the Cabinet Office, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Figures may vary depending on the time of the survey.
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