[The Project Manager's Path] Managing the Unexpected: The PM's Power of 'What If'

The 'Castle in the Sand' Called Prediction

The job of a project manager (PM) is often compared to that of an architect.

Deadlines, budgets, and quality. Completing a building on schedule based on these precise blueprints is the mission of a PM.

However, in the real world, as construction progresses, it is a daily occurrence for unexpected earthquakes to happen or for material costs to soar.

Projects are no exception.

In the field of IT development, crustal movements called 'specification changes' occur, and in the business domain, hurricanes called 'surprise attacks from competitors' blow through.

The true value of a PM is tested by how they manage these 'unexpected situations,' or in other words, 'unforeseen events.'

It could be said that this is a duet between risk management, which prepares in advance, and incident response, which deals with things when they actually happen.

Can Risk Management Make You an 'Omnipotent God' Who Predicts Everything?

Risk management is the process of identifying potential negatives for a project in advance, evaluating the probability and impact of them becoming reality, and taking countermeasures.

Excellent PMs, in the early stages of a project, will identify and list every conceivable 'risk,' such as:
'This system might experience a server crash'
'Learning this new technology might take time'
and prepare countermeasures in advance.

However, a question arises here.

'To what extent can we anticipate the unexpected?' they ask.

There are events in the world called 'Black Swans.'
These refer to 'events that are extremely rare, very difficult to predict, and have a massive impact once they occur.'

The 2008 Lehman Shock and the COVID-19 pandemic are perfect examples of this.

No matter how precise the risk analysis, it is impossible to perfectly predict the appearance of these 'black swans' and prepare countermeasures for them.

A PM is not an 'omnipotent god' who can predict everything.
What they can do is strive to expand the 'range of anticipation' as much as possible and build an 'organizational structure that can respond quickly' when something happens outside of that range.

What a PM 'Can Do' and 'Cannot Do'

When encountering an unforeseen event, or a 'Black Swan,' what can a PM do?

What you can do is 'tactical withdrawal' and 'information transparency'.

When faced with an unexpected situation, the first things a PM can do are 'tactical withdrawal' and becoming an 'information hub'.

(1) 'Containment of damage' and 'redefinition of priorities'
Do not panic; calmly grasp the worst-case scenario and contain it so the damage does not spread.
Then, immediately decide among schedule, budget, and quality: 'What will we sacrifice this time, and what will we prioritize protecting?'
For example, when a critical bug appears, make the bold decision to protect quality even if it means delaying the delivery date.

(2) 'Ensuring information transparency'
Communicate the situation, the damage, and 'what we will do from here' to customers, management, and team members without hiding anything.
Concealing information is a poison that leads to worsening situations. Guide a team plagued by anxiety with a 'compass' made of information.

What you cannot do is 'become a wizard who performs miracles'.

Conversely, there are things a PM cannot do.
That is 'magically increasing time or resources'.

No matter how excellent a PM is, they cannot recover two weeks of lost man-hours overnight.
Also, they cannot become a 'wizard' who instantly produces an innovative solution that no one has ever seen before under pressure.

Recognizing these 'things you cannot do' and maintaining a stance of not overdoing it—and not forcing others to overdo it—is the final bastion that protects the team from collapse.

Still, finding a way: The PM's 'human power'

So, 'how can you still find a way?'

It comes down to 'gathering the team's collective wisdom and external strength' and fully utilizing your 'trust balance'.

Unexpected events are often problems where 'no one knows the answer'.
At times like this, instead of the PM worrying alone, their 'human power'—bowing their head and asking for help from all stakeholders, including developers, designers, sales, and customers—saves the day.

Here is an example.
In a certain system project, a partner company suddenly decided on a major change in direction that overturned the premises of the specifications.
The project fell into chaos, and everyone gave up, thinking, 'We won't make it.'
At this time, the action the PM took was neither 'complaining' nor 'persuading.' He went to the person in charge at the other company and simply listened sincerely, asking, 'What is the real problem your company is facing?'
As a result, they succeeded in finding a 'third way' that benefited both companies by slightly adjusting the project's objectives.

This can be called an episode where the 'deposit' of 'trust relationships with people' that the PM has cultivated daily returned with interest at the most critical moment.

What a PM should keep in mind regarding risk management

There are two key points that a PM should keep in mind regarding 'risk management'.

(1) Do not treat risks as 'villains'
Risks are not the 'shadow' of a project, but rather 'seeds of growth'.
The process of identifying risks is an opportunity for humble reflection to learn 'what we do not know,' and the countermeasures taken strengthen the team's 'muscle'.

(2) Maintain the mindset of 'knowing one's ignorance'
As Socrates taught, 'knowing that you know nothing' is the beginning of wisdom.
By always keeping the 'knowledge of ignorance'—the awareness that 'situations I cannot even imagine can occur'—in the corner of their mind, a PM can avoid overconfidence and maintain mental preparation for unexpected events, which is to say, 'resilience'.

The Philosophy of a Surviving PM

The PM's way of life is not the path of creating a perfect plan.

It is the path of accepting the philosophy that 'the unexpected is the default for a project,' and continuing to sail while reading the winds of 'uncertainty' even as you hoist the sails of 'planning'.

Veteran PMs know this.
It is best if no problems occur.
However, when problems do arise, the essence of management lies in how well you can keep the team functioning, convince stakeholders, and continue moving forward toward the goal.

When you overcome the unexpected, the project not only achieves success, but the team itself will transform into a 'team that can overcome the unexpected'.

It is the way of the world that things do not always go as planned.
Sometimes, it is necessary to flexibly adjust your course through timely risk management.

Before the 'smoke of the unexpected' becomes visible to everyone, sense the 'signs' and 'handle it smoothly.' Perhaps a 'first-class PM' is one who, after that, acts as if nothing happened, keeps a cool face, proceeds calmly, and delivers the results as planned.

That is the kind of PM I want to be.

Or so I say...

[Related Articles]

☆The PM's Way of Life

☆The Ecosystem of IT Sites

☆The Small Path of Project Management

・Practical Project Management [Overview Edition] - - Management Toolbox

・PMBOK actually used in practice: Things to be careful about when introducing - - Management Toolbox

[Book Introduction]

・The Book to Solidly Master the Basics of Project Management in One Volume (Kindle Edition)
　Kazuya Maeda [Author]
　Gijutsu-Hyohron Co., Ltd. (2022/06)
　This book is an introductory guide that allows you to learn project management from the basics. After explaining the fundamental knowledge of project management, it divides projects into five stages: "Initiating," "Planning," "Executing," "Monitoring and Controlling," and "Closing," and carefully explains what should be done and points to be aware of at each stage.
(* Book descriptions, etc., are generally based on the descriptions provided at the link (Amazon). Please refer to the link for detailed content.)

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・Practical Course on 'Project Management' You Want to Know When You Become in Charge (Kindle Edition)
　Daisuke Ito (Author)
　Nihon Jitsugyo Publishing (2017/2/1)
　This book explains specific knowledge and tools for project management, focusing on three perspectives: "Goal Setting," "Planning," and "Execution." It uses abundant diagrams to explain along the progress of a project. It is no exaggeration to say that many jobs and activities are projects. This is a must-read book for business people and everyone who wants to make their projects successful!
(* Book descriptions, etc., are generally based on the descriptions provided at the link (Amazon). Please refer to the link for detailed content.)

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・A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge
　(PMBOK Guide) 7th Edition (Kindle Edition)
　+ The Standard for Project Management: Supervised Translation by PMI Japan Chapter
　Project Management Institute (PMI) (Author)
　PMI Japan Chapter (2023/1/6)
(* Book descriptions, etc., are generally based on the descriptions provided at the link (Amazon). Please refer to the link for detailed content.)

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・Illustrated Immediate Combat: The Textbook to Solidly Understand the Knowledge and Methods of PMBOK 7th Edition in One Volume (Kindle Edition)
　Kazuya Maeda (Author)
　Gijutsu-Hyohron Co., Ltd. (2024/9/20)
　This is an explanatory book for the PMBOK Guide 7th Edition, known as the global standard for project management. In addition to the fundamental knowledge of project management such as "Project Basics," "Value Delivery System," and "12 Principles," it explains the key points of the "8 Performance Domains," which can be called the main theme of PMBOK 7th Edition, in detail. It is a book recommended not only for studying project management but also as a first step for PMP exam preparation.
(* Book descriptions, etc., are generally based on the descriptions provided at the link (Amazon). Please refer to the link for detailed content.)

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・Illustrated Introduction: Easy-to-Understand Basics of the Latest PMBOK 6th Edition (Kindle Edition)
　Yasuji Suzuki (Author)
　Shuwa System (2018/3/23)
　The PMBOK Guide is translated and published in 11 languages worldwide, including Japanese, by the Project Management Institute in the United States. Even when translated, it is difficult to understand due to reasons such as many technical terms and many katakana terms. The author, who is also the leader of the translation and supervision team for the "PMBOK Guide 6th Edition," explains the original meanings as simply as possible. It uses plenty of illustrations to make it easy to visualize, making it easy to understand for everyone from beginners to veterans.
(* Book descriptions, etc., are generally based on the descriptions provided at the link (Amazon). Please refer to the link for detailed content.)

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