[Reading Record -108] "Super Hypothesis Thinking" to Overwhelmingly Solve Problems Where No Correct Answer Is Visible
Super Hypothesis from Summarization
Once you are able to "summarize" by posing questions and structuring them, let's move on to the next phase of "forming hypotheses". That "hypothesis" will become the guideline for "decision-making."
As I wrote in yesterday's article, the modern business scene is built on a "battle for time." This suggests that speed is crucial to outmaneuver other companies (others).
Usually, when forming a hypothesis, you would start by gathering information using the internet or AI. However, that will only make your decision-making speed equal to that of your competitors.
What is "Super Hypothesis"?
What is proposed in this book, "'Super Hypothesis Thinking' to Overwhelmingly Solve Problems Where No Correct Answer Is Visible," is to increase the speed of "hypothesis" -> "decision-making" without spending significant resources on information gathering, or to base your actions on information not found on the internet to form "hypotheses" that others wouldn't think of and make highly unique "decisions".
However, this "Super Hypothesis" also carries risks.
If you increase the speed of forming hypotheses, the accuracy of those hypotheses will naturally decrease. As a result, the possibility of making the wrong decision increases, which could lead to serious damage in some cases.
Therefore, what becomes even more important is the speed of correction.
Form hypotheses at explosive speed, make decisions at explosive speed, run the PDCA cycle at explosive speed, and make corrections (or withdraw, if necessary) at explosive speed.
Instead of taking a cautious approach and aiming for a high batting average, it is a strategy of increasing the number of at-bats to increase both strikeouts and hits.
Things only small and medium-sized enterprises can do
The author of this book, Kenichi Takano, is a person who has served as the president of the Japanese subsidiary of Korn Ferry, one of the world's largest organizational and human resources consulting firms. Based on his track record of being involved in numerous corporate transformations and the development of next-generation leaders, he teaches living organizational theory that directly leads to the operation and rapid decision-making of small and medium-sized enterprises.
If this were a large corporation, one should take a cautious approach and wait until the data is perfectly gathered before making a decision. This is because large corporations have many stakeholders, and management bears the responsibility of explaining things to them.
In comparison, the advantage and characteristic of small and medium-sized enterprises is their ability to be agile and make speedy decisions. The strength of small and medium-sized enterprises lies in their ability to think while running and correct while running.
As the author explains, it is fatal for small and medium-sized enterprises to postpone decision-making because "information is lacking" or "data is insufficient." After all, small and medium-sized enterprises do not have abundant resources like large corporations, do they?
No, this is quite a high hurdle.
This "Super Hypothesis" mechanism could end up being a disaster if management and (excellent) frontline staff are not working well together.
If you are aiming for a company where "Super Hypothesis" is implemented, you should start by implementing these three things.
1. Management presents the "Why," and delegates the "How" to the frontline
If management dictates both the "answer" and the "method," the frontline staff will be reduced to mere laborers, and speed will drop.
Role of management: Present the grand policy (Why)—such as "why we are doing this" or "the market will likely change like this -> because..."—derived from your own subjectivity and intuition, as a strong message to the frontline.
Role of the frontline: Think of concrete experimental methods (How) to verify that theory themselves, and run the PDCA cycle at explosive speed.
2. Share the "definition of failure" in advance to eliminate fear in the field
Since super hypotheses have a high probability of being wrong, there is a high risk that the field will fear that "if I go along with the president's whim and fail, my evaluation will go down."
Systematizing actions: Management should clearly state to the field the evaluation criteria (rules) that "failing quickly and bringing back live primary information is the 'result'."
Rules for collaboration: For example, define the exit point (failure) for the field, such as "if you try it for one week and there is zero customer response, discard that hypothesis immediately (withdraw)." By doing so, the field can fearlessly and rapidly test the management's super hypotheses in the market.
3. Build a pipeline for sharing primary information
If the "live primary information (raw customer reactions and discomfort)" collected by the field from the market and customers does not reach management, super hypothesis thinking cannot be put into practice.
Flat collaboration system: Build a mechanism (such as a dedicated channel in a chat tool or regular short meetings) that allows field insights and real customer reactions to be shared directly and without noise with the management team.
What is important is that a "virtuous cycle (loop)" is running.
By having the field catch live primary information and smoothly pass it up to management, it becomes possible to formulate "next super hypotheses" with even higher resolution.
Building a mechanism to run that at explosive speed is likely the essence of "Super Hypothesis Thinking."
Reference links
Amazon "Super Hypothesis Thinking" to Overwhelmingly Solve Problems with No Clear AnswerBook introduction page