Meiji Restoration Series | Episode 1: Why did the Tokugawa Shogunate, which lasted 260 years, voluntarily return political power?

~ The Taisei Hokan was not a defeat, but a national redesign ~

Was the Tokugawa Shogunate truly 'overthrown'?

October 14, 1867.
The 15th Shogun of the Tokugawa Shogunate, Tokugawa Yoshinobu, announced that he would return political power to the Imperial Court.
Through this decision, later known as the 'Taisei Hokan' (Restoration of Imperial Rule),
the Tokugawa Shogunate era, which had lasted for approximately 260 years, would come to an end.

School education and historical dramas often simplify this event.

'The Shogunate was weakened by the Black Ships'
'Satsuma and Choshu pushed for the overthrow of the Shogunate'
'The Tokugawa Shogunate was defeated, and the Meiji government was born'

However, one cannot understand the essence of the Meiji Restoration with this perspective alone.
This is because
the Tokugawa Shogunate was not a regime that simply lost a war and vanished.

The path chosen at the end by the massive political system that had governed Japan for 260 years
was not a fight to the death, but a decision to restructure the power structure itself.

This is extremely rare in history.
When long-standing nations or organizations face a crisis,
they often cling to past successes.

'We can still rebuild using the old methods'
'We have succeeded until now, so we cannot be wrong'

Thinking this way, they miss the timing for change.
However, the end of the Tokugawa Shogunate was different.

Within the Shogunate, there were people who already understood the changing times.
And the person chosen as the central figure for this was Tokugawa Yoshinobu.

The Taisei Hokan was not the final decision of a defeated leader.
It was a national-scale business restructuring
carried out by a successful massive organization to adapt to environmental changes.

The success model that was the Tokugawa Shogunate, which lasted 260 years

The first thing to understand is
that the Tokugawa Shogunate was not merely an old feudal system.

Since Tokugawa Ieyasu established the Edo Shogunate in 1603,
Japan experienced a period of approximately 260 years without large-scale domestic war.
This is extremely unique even from a world history perspective.
In Europe, dynastic changes and religious wars were repeated,
and in China, dynasties also changed many times.

On the other hand, in Japan, a single political system was maintained for a long period.
The reason for this is that the Tokugawa Shogunate had built a sophisticated governance system.
For example,

• A mechanism to control the daimyo

• Political management through the Sankin-kotai (alternate attendance) system

• Social order through the class system

• Administrative operations by the samurai

• A nationwide logistics network

and so on.
If we were to replace it with a modern company,
the Tokugawa Shogunate was a massive corporation with an extremely highly developed management system.
It had clear organizational hierarchies, decision-making rules, and
it conducted national management as if it had a network of branches across the country.
That is precisely why it lasted for 260 years.

However, this is where the biggest problem of a long-term administration lies.
The more successful a system is, the slower it is to respond to environmental changes.
It was a system optimized for domestic governance during the Edo period, but
it required modifications once it entered the era of international competition in the 19th century.

Was Japan at the end of the Edo period really closed off from the world?

There is another major misunderstanding in understanding the Meiji Restoration.
That is,

“Japan during the Edo period was completely isolated from the world due to national seclusion.”

This way of thinking.
Certainly, the Tokugawa Shogunate restricted free exchange with foreign countries.
However, it does not mean that Japan did not know about the world.

Through Dejima in Nagasaki, it traded with the Netherlands and China and collected overseas information.
Furthermore, there was a history of overseas trade in Hirado even before the establishment of the Edo Shogunate.
There was also a southern route through the Ryukyu Kingdom, and there were multiple points of contact with overseas countries.
By the end of the Edo period, those movements became even more active.

The Satsuma Domain conducted overseas exchanges through the Ryukyu Kingdom and obtained information on Western countries.
Some domains independently collected overseas information and
researched military and industrial technologies.
There were also domains that purchased weapons such as guns from overseas.

In other words, Japan at the end of the Edo period was not

a “closed nation that did not know the world.”

Rather, it was

a “nation that had begun to understand the changes in the world.”

The problem was what kind of form to change Japan into after understanding the world.

The successor sought by the Tokugawa Shogunate facing a crisis

The problem faced by the Tokugawa Shogunate at the end of the Edo period was not just a political dispute.
Western powers had gained massive military and economic power through the Industrial Revolution and
were advancing into Asia.
Japan was no exception.

In 1853, the U.S. Navy's Perry fleet arrived in Uraga.
Generally, it is explained that “Japan was forced to open its country by the Black Ships.”

However, that is not the essence.
It was not the Black Ships that changed Japan.
They revealed the challenges in Japan's national management that had been difficult to see until then.

What the Tokugawa Shogunate had been good at until now was maintaining domestic order.
However, in the new era,

• diplomacy

• international trade

• Modern military

• International finance

• Industrial policy

These were the new capabilities that were required.
That is why choosing a leader to carry the next era became so important.
The Tokugawa Shogunate had begun preparing for this even before the crisis became severe.

Tokugawa Yoshinobu was not just a randomly chosen last shogun

Tokugawa Yoshinobu did not become shogun because he had the closest bloodline to the Tokugawa main family.
The background to why he was noticed as a candidate for the next shogun was the unprecedented crisis the Tokugawa Shogunate was facing.
the unprecedented crisis the Tokugawa Shogunate was facing.

During the era of the 13th Shogun, Tokugawa Iesada, the Shogunate faced a major succession problem.
Iesada was sickly, and
deciding who to entrust with future government administration became a critical political issue.
At that time, the person who became a candidate was Tokugawa Yoshinobu, the head of the Hitotsubashi family.

Yoshinobu was from the Hitotsubashi-Tokugawa family, which was close to the lineage of Tokugawa Ieyasu, and
he had received a high-level education from a young age.
However, the reason he was valued was not just his bloodline.
What was important was his ability.

Political judgment.
Insight to see the era.
Ability to coordinate with various forces.
And an understanding of overseas situations.

Within the Shogunate,

“Conventional leaders cannot handle the operation of Japan from here on out”

This recognition existed.
In other words, the Tokugawa Shogunate recognized its own crisis and
was trying to choose Tokugawa Yoshinobu as the person to deal with it.

What is needed in a crisis is not a “maintainer” but a “transformer”

This also applies to modern companies.
When a company enters from a growth phase into a mature phase and the environment changes significantly,
what is needed is not a manager who just protects past successes.
What is needed is

a person who can judge “what to keep and what to change.”

The systems built by the founder.

The corporate culture cultivated over many years.
Relationships with existing customers.
The experience of employees.

These are important assets for a company.
However, when the market environment changes,
if you just maintain them as they are, the company will inevitably decline.
What is needed is to redesign past assets into a form that can adapt to the future.

The Tokugawa Shogunate at the end of the Edo period faced the same problem.
Rather than denying the governing system that had succeeded for 260 years,
it was necessary to rebuild it to fit the new international environment.
Tokugawa Yoshinobu was the person expected to take on that role.

Tokugawa Yoshinobu as a “Corporate Restructurer”

Tokugawa Yoshinobu is spoken of in history as the “last shogun.”
However, from a different perspective, his role is very different.

He is not a defeated executive.
He is more like a corporate restructuring expert who took on the role of transitioning a massive organization on the verge of collapse into the next era.
Of course, modern corporations and nations are not the same.

However, they share commonalities in terms of organizational transformation.
The longer an organization has existed, the more vast assets have accumulated within it.
The problem is how to utilize those assets in a new era.

Yoshinobu did not believe the Shogunate could be maintained forever.
Rather, he believed that after understanding the global situation, it was necessary to reconstruct the governing system of Japan as a whole.
The symbol of this was his gaze toward the outside world.

In late Edo-period Japan, movements to understand overseas conditions were progressing.
Amidst this, around Tokugawa Yoshinobu, talent including Eiichi Shibusawa, who would later lay the foundation for the Japanese economy, was sent abroad.

In 1867, a mission led by Tokugawa Akitake traveled to France and also participated in the Paris World Exposition.
This was not merely diplomacy.
It was an action taken by Japan to learn about global industry, finance, and political systems, and to apply them to the next stage of national governance.

The Edo Shogunate was an old organization.
However, there were also people within it who looked toward the future.

The Taisei Hokan (Restoration of Imperial Rule) was not a 'defeat' but an 'exit strategy'.

On October 14, 1867, Tokugawa Yoshinobu carried out the Taisei Hokan.
Generally, it is understood as:

'The Shogunate gave up power because it was cornered by anti-Shogunate forces.'

However, looking at it structurally, it actually has a different meaning.
At the time, the biggest challenge Japan faced was not:

'Who will hold power?'

The real problem was:

'How to make the nation of Japan survive in the modern world.'

It was necessary to transition from an era where a single organization called the Tokugawa Shogunate managed all of Japan, to an era of conducting unified diplomatic, military, and economic policies as a modern state.
The Taisei Hokan was a political decision for that purpose.

In terms of corporate management, this is close to a business model transformation.
Instead of clinging to past successful businesses, you change the structure to survive for the future.
That is not a defeat.
It is a survival strategy.

If Tokugawa Yoshinobu had fought to the end

Here is one question.
If Yoshinobu had not carried out the Taisei Hokan and had chosen total war centered on Edo, what would have happened to Japan?

A possible outcome is a long-term civil war.
Edo would become a battlefield, and many lives would be lost.
Furthermore, the talent and technology needed to build a new Japan would also be lost.
The Shogunate side possessed excellent administrators, engineers, and people with overseas experience.
If they had all been eliminated, the modernization of the Meiji government might have been significantly delayed.

Herein lies an important principle of organizational reform.
When creating a new system, you must not destroy the old system entirely.
What is needed is:

'Identifying the assets that should be preserved'

.

The Meiji Restoration was a national-scale business restructuring.

The Meiji Restoration is often described as a revolution. However, it was not a simple revolution. It did not completely eliminate the old regime. The Tokugawa family survived, and many former shogunate retainers remained active in the new era. The educational, administrative, and commercial foundations formed during the Edo period were also inherited.

In other words, the Meiji Restoration was not a reform that denied the past, but a reform that utilized past assets to adapt to the future.

Herein lies the characteristic of Japan's modernization.

Connection to Modern Management

The same can be said for companies. The reason long-standing companies decline is not necessarily their past success itself. The problem is the inability to update successful mechanisms to match the times.

Companies that have lasted 100 years have a reason for doing so. However, that reason does not necessarily hold true for the future. What is important is not what to discard, but what to carry into the future.

The Taisei Hokan (restoration of imperial rule) carried out by Tokugawa Yoshinobu was not the end of a single regime. It was the final management decision for a massive organization that had lasted 260 years to change its form to adapt to changing times.

The Meiji Restoration was not a revolution that happened in a day. It was the beginning of a long redesign to transition the national assets accumulated over 260 years into a new era.

Next Episode Preview

Meiji Restoration Series | Episode 2
Why did the Meiji government not function as a nation immediately?
~ The reason it took over 20 years to transition from the Tokugawa Shogunate to a modern state ~ The Tokugawa Shogunate ended with the Taisei Hokan. However, a new nation was not born overnight. The biggest challenge the Meiji government faced was how to transform the governing system that had lasted 260 years into a modern state. Next time, we will follow the process of 'national restructuring' as it transitioned from the Tokugawa Shogunate to the Meiji government.

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