Research Memo: The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

Simon Sinek is a thinker who changed the world's discourse on leadership with the phrase, "Start with WHY." His 17-minute TEDx talk from 2009 has been viewed over 69 million times, placing it among the top 5 TED talks of all time. His books have been translated into over 50 languages, and his Golden Circle theory is utilized in MBA programs and corporate training worldwide. In Japan, "Start with WHY" is widely read as a must-read for business professionals, and his TED talk is frequently used as English teaching material in universities. This article is a unique translation of what he calls "finding early adopters and starting with why", prepared as teaching material for university students studying business administration. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Mr. Sinek.

People with new ideas, regardless of whether they are neurodivergent or not, are a threat to the status quo. However, there is nothing inherently wrong with the status quo. The status quo exists because things are functioning reasonably well. And those who defend it most fiercely are the ones who benefit the most from it. If someone shows up and says, "I have no guarantees, but I want to try something new. If it doesn't work, we might all lose our jobs," almost no one will agree.

That is why few people start businesses. Few people become entrepreneurs. And to be honest, there is no need for everyone to be one. The probability of failure is overwhelmingly high. Even if you have a strong will, if you have a family and children, whether it is worth taking that risk is another matter. The probability of failing within the first three years reaches the high 90% range. You must always keep that in mind.

That is why I have never made it my rule to try to persuade people who do not want to be persuaded. All you get from doing that is an argument. It becomes a back-and-forth of "you are right" and "I am right." And in fact, both parties are correct within their own contexts.

When facing new ideas, I have a framework that is almost like a faith to me: the "Law of Diffusion of Innovation." In any group, there is always a normal distribution. There are people who perform at a high level, people who do not, and the vast majority are average. This is a universal truth. When Everett Rogers described this law in the 1950s, he explained it as follows: In any group, the first 2.5% are the "big idea people," or innovators. Think of Steve Jobs or Richard Branson. The next 12.5% are the early adopters. These are people who will spare no time, money, or energy if something embodies their values and beliefs. They have a high tolerance for risk and can wait in line for 48 hours to see a new Star Wars movie. They feel it is worth waiting, even though they could buy a ticket without waiting two weeks later.

Next come the majority, 68%. They are a more skeptical and realistic group. They think, "What's in it for me?", "Can I recover the money I invested?", or "Will I be held responsible if something goes wrong?" The final 16% are the laggards, those who arrive the latest. They only accept change when they no longer have any other choice.

The Law of Diffusion shows that for an idea or product to be accepted by the masses, market penetration must reach 15-18%. When it reaches that level, a social phenomenon called the "tipping point" occurs, and it spreads rapidly from there. The reason is simple: the early majority will not move until someone else has tried it first.

There is a pitfall here. If you ignore this law, you will only ever gather the 10% of people who "get it." We hear evaluations like "that person understands" or "that guy doesn't get it at all" on a daily basis. What does it mean to "get it"? But that is how we talk. And this 10% is not enough to move the system. A deep sense of frustration is born there.

Geoffrey Moore wrote about this very question in "Crossing the Chasm." How do you get from 10% to 15-18%? What I learned is that it is critically important to start by talking about "why" in order to reach early adopters. Talk about what you believe, not what you are doing. Talk about why you are doing it, not what your plan is. Talk about your dreams. If you do that, early adopters who are ready to take risks and enjoy experimenting will naturally gather.

I built my entire brand with zero marketing budget, no PR activities, and no social media at the time. I decided to focus only on early adopters and always start by talking about "why." I thoroughly refined the ability to communicate with people on the level of emotional resonance, rather than explaining facts or products. You eventually need to back it up with facts and results, but you don't start there. Start with "why." And the system began to move. I have experienced this in many companies.

If you want to create change within an organization, stop trying to persuade people who do not want to be persuaded.

Let me tell you a specific story from the early days when I was spreading the message of "Start with WHY." At the time, I was making a living through consulting, but I was still in the stage of figuring out how to spread my ideas. Literally, I had only a few cents in my bank account, and I was barely making ends meet. One day, I received a call from a man through an acquaintance. After saying, "I've heard your work is wonderful," he said, "Try to persuade me why I should hire you."

No matter how much I needed the work, I was good at discerning whether someone was an early adopter. "Try to persuade me" is not the language of an early adopter. So I replied, "You'd better not." He asked back, "What?" I answered, "I am not the right person for you."

On the other hand, when someone contacted me saying, "It's not perfect yet, but you've grasped something important," I always said "yes," even if the pay was zero. Because those people allowed me to experiment in their businesses. When I asked, "Would you let me try something new at your company?", they would reply, "Go ahead, try it." That is the mindset of an early adopter.

Now, let me tell you a real-life example of how this worked in a large organization. I was asked by a company with 100,000 employees to create a leadership training program for the millennial generation. I replied, "Let's do it, but in my way."

There is a typical pattern when large companies undertake such initiatives. They invest a large budget to hire excellent consultants, create a perfect training program, prepare a mountain of slides explaining "why you should participate in this program," and launch it all at once. Then the employees say, "No thanks." The person in charge persists, saying, "But the content is really good." Still, it doesn't spread. The content is indeed excellent. It's just that no one moves. You encounter strong resistance. It is natural for this to happen if you try to provide something new directly to the majority.

That is why I said, "Let's do it my way." Early adopters need an appropriate barrier to entry that is not too high. Because there is a barrier, people who are truly interested naturally gather. Specifically, I proceeded as follows: I decided to handle the first class myself, but the overall picture of the program was not yet decided. All there was, was one class. The capacity was 100 people. To participate, you had to apply.

I had applicants from offices across the country write essays. I made an announcement, set up a full-scale selection process, and actually read the essays to choose 100 people. I told the participants that they had to come to New York at their own expense regardless of where they lived, that there was no additional compensation, and that anyone born before 1984 could not participate. In other words, all senior management was excluded. I made it so that I was the only person in the room born before 1984.

That class was wonderful. At the end of the session, I said, "This program has not been created yet. I am looking for volunteers to help me create it. I will tell you the conditions. There is no additional compensation. You must continue your regular duties. There is no guarantee it will help with your promotion. You will work on it only because you feel this work is important." 50 people in that room raised their hands.

I sent everyone home. About two weeks later, I received a call from the company's point of contact. He was furious. 'You've really done it now.' When I asked what had happened, he said, 'I'm getting yelled at by managers from all over the country. They want to know why their teams weren't invited.' I replied calmly, 'That is what we call demand.'

We had created demand. The early adopters returned to their workplaces and told those around them, 'That was the real deal; we absolutely need it.' No marketing. No PR. No slides. And above all, the rest of the program ended up being created by the early adopters themselves.

This is how you leverage the law of diffusion of innovation within an organization where resistance to new ideas is deeply rooted.