[Definitive Edition] 10 Technologies That Will Become Commonplace in 10 Years: A Working Researcher Honestly Selects What's 'Coming' and What's 'Still Dubious'

—A researcher who has walked the floors of trade shows honestly sorts out what is 'coming' and what is 'dubious'—

If you stop gathering information, you will be left behind.

This is a feeling that has become ingrained in me while working in R&D at a chemical manufacturer for five years.

In the world of advanced materials, you can be left behind in the blink of an eye if you take your eyes off it. New materials, new manufacturing methods, new competitors—every time I go to a trade show, there are many moments where I realize, 'Oh, it has already come this far.'

That is precisely why I believe I have the strength to be able to say that a dubious technology is dubious.

There are countless articles on the internet talking about technology 10 years from now. But there are almost no articles that honestly say, 'This is still dubious.' Whether they are afraid of being wrong or it is just difficult—I don't know the reason, but I have always felt uneasy reading them.

So I decided to write it. Honestly, not just what is 'coming,' but also what is 'still dubious.'

Before reading the 10 selected technologies: 'An Honest Promise'

There are three selection criteria for this article.

1. Concrete roadmaps from companies or governments exist. 2. 'On-site feedback' has been confirmed through trade shows and customer interviews. 3. As a researcher, I can 'visualize how it will be used in the field.'

In 2023, there was something that caused a stir around the world called 'room-temperature superconductor (LK-99).' It was reported as the 'discovery of the first room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor in history' and spread explosively on social media. However, replication experiments failed all over the world. Related articles still remain on the internet today.

(After that commotion, I decided for myself: I will only write about fields where I can have primary information.)

Room-temperature superconductivity is not included in this article.

'Coming' Certainties Part 1: Three Energy and Material Technologies

In this chapter, I will introduce three energy and material technologies that will certainly become widespread by 2035.

All-solid-state batteries

(A word for beginners: A next-generation battery that changes the inside of the battery from 'liquid' to 'solid.' It has no liquid leakage, charges quickly, and is safe. It is a technology that will fundamentally change the evolution of electric vehicles.)

Toyota and Idemitsu Kosan have officially announced commercialization between 2027 and 2028 and full-scale mass production in 2030. Construction of a factory to establish mass production technology for solid electrolytes has also begun, and the construction of a supply chain supported by the government is underway.

As a researcher at a chemical manufacturer, I see that the competition for solid electrolyte material development is already quite heated. In my view, it is only a matter of time before this battery becomes commonplace.

Perovskite Solar Cells

(A note for beginners: Lightweight, thin solar cells that can be 'printed' like film. Their biggest difference from conventional solar cells is that they can be applied to building exteriors and curved surfaces. It is an invention originating from Japan.)

Sekisui Chemical began mass production in 2025 and plans to build a system with an annual production capacity of 1 GW by 2030. The government has decided to provide approximately 314.5 billion yen in support. According to Fuji Keizai's forecast, the global market is expected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yen by 2035.

There are still challenges with conversion efficiency and durability—I will be honest about that as well. Even so, the 'momentum for adoption' is real.

Next-Generation Power Semiconductors (SiC/GaN)

(A note for beginners: Semiconductor materials that can significantly reduce energy loss during power conversion. These are materials that succeed silicon and are currently being widely adopted in EV fast chargers and other applications.)

This is a technology that is 'already beginning to spread as of 2026,' rather than one that 'will become commonplace in 2035.' The thermal conductivity of SiC is more than three times that of silicon. It is excellent at dissipating heat and operates stably even in high-temperature, high-voltage environments.

Rather than coming, it has already arrived.

The 'Definitely Coming' Group (2): 3 Communication and Device Technologies

In this chapter, I will introduce three communication and device technologies that support a 'world where things are connected.'

6G Communication (and Low-Dielectric Materials)

(A note for beginners: The communication standard following 5G. It aims for commercialization around 2030 and is predicted to become 'social infrastructure itself,' used not only for smartphones but also in factories, hospitals, and autonomous driving.)

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has explicitly stated 'commercialization around 2030' in its official roadmap, and domestic carriers such as NTT Docomo are also actively pursuing research and development.

Let me talk a little about the technical side here.

In my work, I deal with the materials that support this '6G communication.' They are called 'low-dielectric materials.'

(A supplement for those asking 'What is low-dielectric?': As radio waves reach higher frequencies, signals become more prone to attenuation within the materials they pass through. To minimize this 'signal loss,' materials with low values for dielectric constant (Dk) and dielectric loss tangent (Df) are required. The lower the Dk and Df, the 'better the material is at preventing signal degradation.' These are used in internal wiring boards for smartphones and 6G base station boards.)

I visit multiple exhibitions throughout the year, including Tokyo Big Sight, nano tech, Highly-functional Material Week, NEPCON, and the New Functional Material Exhibition. As I continue to conduct customer interviews, I can feel firsthand that the performance hurdles required for materials are continuing to rise year by year.

"We couldn't find the properties we wanted in other companies' materials, but we thought perhaps your company could do it."

This single sentence has often been the catalyst for launching new themes. In the world of advanced materials, there are some that cost tens of thousands of yen per kilogram, and some even exceed 100,000 yen. The fact that development investment is being made at such prices shows just how serious each company is. The competition for 6G-compatible materials is one of the fields that is "extremely hot," even from a researcher's perspective.

AI-native devices (such as PLAUD NOTE)

(A word for beginners: A device that automatically transcribes, summarizes, and creates meeting minutes using AI just by recording. It is completely different from the voice recorders of the past in terms of what it can do.)

I personally use an AI recorder called PLAUD NOTE. I use it for creating minutes for exhibition seminars and internal meetings (with my boss's permission), and everything from recording to transcription and minute creation is completed within a single tool.

The time it took to create meeting minutes, which used to take nearly two hours before I started using it, has been reduced to about 30 minutes.

(This change is hard to understand unless you experience it, but it's at a level where I feel 'the way I work has changed.')

Since its launch in 2023, over 1 million units have been shipped in total. Equipped with the latest AI such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini, it also features speaker identification and over 3,000 types of summary templates. I am convinced that this category is a technology that will be completely 'commonplace' in 10 years.

Quantum computers

(A word for beginners: Unlike conventional computers that calculate in '0s or 1s,' these are computers that apply the principles of quantum mechanics to 'handle 0 and 1 simultaneously.' They can process specific calculations overwhelmingly faster.)

However, let me be honest here.

I think it will be difficult for them to become something 'everyone uses like a smartphone' even in 10 years.

A realistic prediction is that 'they will become widespread as a computing infrastructure that companies and research institutions can use via the cloud in the 2030s.' IBM has set a goal of achieving practical quantum advantage in 2026, and the prevailing view is that professional use in drug discovery and material development will begin in earnest in the 2030s.

For chemical researchers, it is one of the technologies that will gradually become impossible to ignore in that 'molecular simulations of new materials will become orders of magnitude faster.'

The 'Coming' Certainty Group (3): Robot, Bio, and Material Technologies

In this chapter, I will introduce three technologies that could change the structure of the manufacturing and chemical industries.

Humanoid robots

(A note for beginners: This refers to humanoid robots. While factory robots until now could only perform fixed movements, the development of robots capable of complex tasks using the same tools and paths as humans is rapidly accelerating.)

Tesla Optimus, Figure 02, Boston Dynamics, and others are accelerating demonstrations, and full-scale introduction into the manufacturing industry is expected around 2028–2030. With the combination of severe labor shortages and the autonomy of AI, I believe the landscape of factories will look quite different by 2035.

Synthetic Biology (Bio-manufacturing)

(A note for beginners: A manufacturing technology that 'makes' desired materials using microorganisms with designed genes. It allows for the production of plastics, fibers, and chemicals without using petroleum.)

In Japan, Spiber (with factories operating in Yamagata and Thailand) has succeeded in the mass production of spider silk proteins, and collaborations with overseas brands like The North Face are progressing. Amid the major trend of moving away from petroleum, from the perspective of the chemical industry, I feel this is a technology that will 'gradually enter the center of the market.'

Diamond (Heat dissipation materials/Quantum sensors)

(A note for beginners: A technology that utilizes the incredible thermal conductivity of natural and synthetic diamonds—about 14 times that of silicon—as a material to dissipate heat from electronic components. Practical application as a 'thermal management material' is more realistic than as a semiconductor itself.)

In interviews at exhibitions a year ago, the response was that it was 'still at the research stage.' However, in exhibitions over the past few months, it has started to be exhibited as a development product for filler applications (powder components mixed into materials to enhance their properties).

I have always liked minerals and have some knowledge of them. That's why I stopped by diamond booths outside my field of expertise and asked on my own, 'How can these properties be utilized?' and 'How can the difficulty of processing due to high hardness be solved?' The challenge of processability is a reality. But the properties are overwhelming.

(Even outside my area of responsibility, I try to actively talk to booths that catch my interest. I feel from experience that this sometimes pays off in my own field later.)

Now that the heat density of AI data centers is rising rapidly, I see the demand for heat dissipation and cooling materials increasing dramatically from here on out.

I'll be honest. Technologies I feel are 'still questionable': Flying Cars

This chapter might be the main reason I wanted to write this article.

I saw the actual machine at Tokyo Big Sight. It is an eVTOL from a manufacturer called EHang.

(What is an eVTOL: Short for Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing. A vehicle that runs on electricity and can take off and land vertically without a runway. It combines technologies from airplanes, helicopters, and drones.)

The actual machine was smaller than I expected and more realistic than I expected. The surprise of 'Does this really fly?' and the doubt of 'Will this really be commonly used in the city 10 years from now?' arose at the same time.

There are certainly advantages compared to helicopters.

• It is electric, so there is less noise

• It does not require a runway and can take off and land from places like building rooftops.

• It is designed for autonomous flight, so no pilot is needed, resulting in low operating costs.

• Maintenance is simple, and upkeep costs are low.

• It does not emit CO2.

However, I will be honest.As for whether it will become 'commonplace' in 10 years, I am still skeptical.

There are two reasons for this.

One is that even EVs and autonomous driving are still in development. Even with ground transportation, safety standards and legal frameworks are taking time to establish, so there is a realistic question of whether air traffic rules (flight paths, altitudes, and aerial intersection design) and aircraft safety standards can be finalized in 10 years.

The other reason is that whether a technology arrives and whether it 'becomes commonplace' are two different things. Even if the technology itself is realized, it will not enter daily life unless the infrastructure and legal systems catch up.

(This is not to say I am dismissing flying cars. It is precisely because I saw the real thing at an exhibition that I honestly felt, 'I think it's amazing, but it's difficult for it to become "commonplace" in 10 years.')

If you stop gathering information, you will be left behind.

While selecting these 10 technologies, I became convinced of one thing again.

In the field of advanced materials research and development, you will be left behind in the blink of an eye if you take your eyes off it. Updating text-based information is important, but the value of visiting exhibitions and seminars togather primary information directly from the leading experts in the fieldis incomparably greater.

When I was launching a development theme, the most useful source of information was not papers or patents, but'direct feedback from customers'.

'There were no materials from other companies with the properties I wanted, but couldn't your company do it?'

That one sentence has often been the starting point for a new theme.

The 10 technologies introduced in this article will continue to evolve. The technologies I wrote as 'coming' might accelerate rapidly, and the ones I labeled 'still questionable' might be proven otherwise.

That is why I believe that not stopping the flow of information is the most modest yet certain way to ensure your skills do not become obsolete 10 years from now.

If you stop gathering information, you will be left behind.

That is the one thing that will not change even 10 years from now.

💬 If there is anything among these 10 technologies that you feel 'this is definitely coming' or 'this is questionable,' please share your comments from your industry perspective.

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