[Bloomberg Summary] US Manufacturing Shrinks for 9th Consecutive Month and Nikkei 225 Dead Cross - December 2, 2025

Based on the latest reports from Bloomberg and economic indicators, we have summarized the current market environment and key points that investors should keep in mind.

Concerns over US economic slowdown: Deterioration of the ISM Manufacturing PMI

According to Bloomberg, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the manufacturing composite index for November 2025 was 48.2. This is a 0.5-point decline from the previous month and falls below the market expectation of 49.

The key points to note are as follows:

* Nine consecutive months of contraction

The index has remained well below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction for nine consecutive months. This indicates that sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains in a difficult situation.

* Sluggish new orders and employment

New orders have fallen to their lowest level since July, and employment has contracted further.

* Uncertainty regarding tariffs

Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, explained that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is a primary factor behind the decline in demand. It has become clear that customers are holding back on orders until there is more clarity on the outlook for future goods costs.

Trends in US personal consumption: Caution regarding the year-end shopping season

It is not just the manufacturing sector; shadows are also appearing in the consumer sector.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the US is one of the most important indicators, accounting for approximately 70% of GDP, and is composed of durable goods, non-durable goods, and service expenditures.

According to Bloomberg (reported on November 26), a sense of "fatigue" is spreading among US consumers due to prolonged high prices and anxiety about the economy, leading to a slowdown in spending. Caution is also required regarding the year-end shopping season, which is about to begin in earnest.

Impact on the Nikkei 225 and technical analysis

The stalling of the US economy is also weighing on Japanese stocks. Analyzing the current Nikkei 225 chart reveals signals of strong adjustment.

Long-term perspective (10-year chart)

The divergence between the long-term moving average and the current stock price (candlestick) is wide, suggesting a potential correction of overheating or a turning point in the trend.

Short-term perspective (3-month chart)

Recently, a "dead cross" has already occurred, where the 5-day moving average has fallen below the 25-day moving average. This suggests the start of a short-term downward trend, and a heavy upside performance is expected.

Summary

The US economy is reaching a critical juncture as US manufacturing holds back on purchases due to uncertainty over tariff policies, while consumer frugality is simultaneously on the rise. In tandem with this, Japanese stocks have also triggered a technical warning signal.

Today, it seems necessary to carefully assess these macroeconomic conditions.

Reference News/Data:

Bloomberg News December 2, 2025 [The 5 Things to Know to Start Your Day] Curated news you should read before starting work

Bloomberg News November 26, 2025
US consumers show fatigue, spending slows due to high prices and economic anxiety - Caution for the year-end shopping season