The Divergence Between Real Demand and Supply-Demand: Decoding the Market Mechanisms Behind AI Investment

Hello everyone. I am your reporter, Sanaichi.

1. Review of the previous article and this week's theme

Last time, we organized the details of how AI investment is expanding as real demand from its epicenter in semiconductors to power and communication infrastructure for data centers, precision components for factory automation (FA), and even into security sectors like defense and space.
👉Link to previous article 👉Link to article before last

Based on the content from last time, you might feel that "if real demand is spreading to related industries this much, the stock prices and market values of related companies should continue to rise in a straight line."

However, when observing the actual market, we see complex price movements, such as stocks that should have good performance plummeting, or conversely, seeing a sudden wave of buying after turmoil.

This time, I will organize a framework for thinking that is not swayed by noise, from the two perspectives of "industrial real demand" occurring at corporate sites and the "supply-demand mechanism of funds" occurring in market transactions.

2. Case 1: The solid facts of real demand in corporate performance

First, what we should focus on are the figures of real demand that are steadily accumulating on the ground.

Looking at the earnings announcements for the final week of July 2026, this movement is clear. Advantest, a major semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, significantly revised its full-year earnings forecast upward in line with the higher performance of semiconductors for generative AI. The sales forecast was raised to 1.714 trillion yen and the operating profit forecast to 846 billion yen, proving that demand is not just expectation but is bearing fruit as actual profit.

Also, Keyence, which handles factory automation, achieved significant growth in both sales and profit in the first quarter, demonstrating the strength of demand for labor-saving and precision control at manufacturing sites.

Furthermore, in the US market, Microsoft's Azure business recorded 43 percent year-on-year growth, and Amazon's AWS also accelerated its growth rate. This is irrefutable evidence that massive AI infrastructure investment is beginning to be recovered as actual cloud sales.

These are all genuine real demand backed by gritty on-site operations and solid numerical data.

3. Case 2: Fluctuations in supply and demand caused by market convenience

On the other hand, no matter how strong the real demand is, short-term price formation in the market fluctuates violently due to the "convenience of supply and demand."

In the market that same week, Vertiv, a US AI infrastructure-related company, saw its stock price fall significantly because it did not meet the market's overly high expectations, even though demand itself was solid. There were also scenes where selling took precedence, such as with Meta, where the temporary pressure on cash flow due to the expansion of AI investment was disliked.

In the Japanese market as well, prices fluctuated due to structural factors unrelated directly to corporate performance, such as changes in the macro environment like the Bank of Japan's policy interest rate hold, speculation of additional rate hikes, and the rapid appreciation of the yen seen as currency intervention, as well as index rebalancing and position adjustments by institutional investors toward the end of the fiscal period.

In the market, there will always be "phases where future expectations run too far ahead and corrections occur" or "phases where the burden of investment is disliked first." This is the true nature of the divergence that occurs between real demand and stock prices.

4. Summary and future actions

By understanding both real demand (corporate substance) and supply-demand (market convenience), you can acquire an essential perspective that is not swayed by news or stock price movements.

If you only focus on superficial price volatility, you will make wrong decisions out of fear. However, if you follow the substantial breakdown of what kind of capital investment is taking place behind the screen and which company's earnings are reflecting it as figures, you can grasp short-term market fluctuations as calm opportunities.

Instead of clinging to a plan of perfect future forecasting, flexibly adjust your own thinking axis based on the facts that emerge. This ability to discern market noise from essential demand is the ultimate work technique for improving the quality of decision-making in today's rapidly changing world.

AI investment is moving from a mere speculative market based on expectations to a market of full-scale monetization and the selection of actual demand. Moving forward, let us continue to focus on the genuine value created in the field, rather than being caught up in superficial trend words.

▼ Recommended articles and information to read alongside this