A Quick Guide to the 2030 Logistics Problem

In June 2026, Kuribayashi Steamship released a white paper regarding the "2030 Logistics Problem." In response to the deepening shortage of drivers, it summarizes examples of modal shifts using maritime transport. Two years after the 2024 problem, the logistics industry's challenges are shifting from the "2026 problem" to the "2030 problem." This article provides a quick overview of what the 2030 logistics problem is and why it is important now.

1. What is the 2030 Logistics Problem?

The 2030 Logistics Problem refers to the challenge of a significant shortage in truck transport capacity expected by fiscal year 2030. According to estimates by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and others, if the current situation continues, there is a possibility that approximately 34.1% of transport demand will not be met in fiscal year 2030.

This is calculated as approximately 940 million tons (in terms of commercial truck transport volume) that will be unable to be transported, which is a very serious scenario for Japan's logistics infrastructure.

2. Why will transport capacity be 34.1% short in 2030?

There are two main reasons.

The first is the mass retirement of elderly drivers. Currently, the average age of truck drivers is higher than in other industries, and the baby boomer junior generation will reach retirement age around 2030. If new drivers are not recruited, the workforce will be lost rapidly.

The second is the cumulative impact of the 2024 problem. Due to the regulation on overtime work for truck drivers (960 hours per year) that came into effect in April 2024, the distance and time a single driver can drive have been restricted. The impact is particularly significant on long-distance transport, and if operations continue under these constraints, a decline in transport capacity is inevitable.

With these two factors combined, it is predicted that a physical wall of transport capacity will emerge by 2030.

3. Differences from the 2024 and 2026 problems

The "2024 problem," "2026 problem," and "2030 problem" are all challenges within the same flow.

The 2024 problem was an institutional turning point where regulations on driver working hours began. The 2026 problem refers to the ripple effect on shippers, as the full enforcement of the revised Logistics Efficiency Act now requires shippers to also have management responsibilities.

And the 2030 problem is a structural wall of physical labor shortages and limits on transport capacity, not just issues of systems and regulations. As the parts that can be solved by systems become limited, transformations in technology, infrastructure, and business models are being called for.

4. Approaches attracting attention as solutions

Currently, several approaches are being practiced as countermeasures to the 2030 logistics problem.

① Maritime Modal Shift

As introduced in the Kuribayashi Steamship white paper, initiatives to switch long-distance truck transport to coastal vessels are spreading. In demonstrations with Shimadaya and Aeon Hokkaido, it was reported that driver driving time was reduced by 70% while CO2 emissions were also reduced by 72%.

② Autonomous Trucks

T2, a startup affiliated with Mitsui & Co., completed a 500km run from Tomei to Sanyo at a level 4 equivalent in March 2026. A model of driving unmanned on night trunk lines and handing over to a driver in urban areas is becoming realistic.

③ Joint Transport and Relay Transport

Joint logistics, where multiple shippers share transportation, and relay transportation, where drivers switch midway, are also attracting attention as means to increase transport efficiency.

5. Thinking from a long-term perspective

The 2030 problem is not merely a issue of a "driver shortage." It is a challenge where Japan's industrial structure, demographics, energy policy, and technological development are intricately intertwined.

No single solution can cover everything. Modal shifts, automation, digitalization, and joint transportation—these must be combined to gradually maintain transport capacity.

For shipper companies, it is important to start taking measures now. There are less than four years left until 2030. A stance of building up what can be done, such as diversifying transport methods, allowing for more lead time, and reviewing warehouse locations, is required.

Logistics is a social infrastructure. The time has come for the entire industry to work together to protect its sustainability.

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