Transportation and Logistics are at their Limit. What is the Reality on the Ground Supporting Japanese Life?

Packages arrive the next day.
Food is stocked at supermarkets.
Products are replenished at convenience stores.
A truck arrives on moving day.
Items bought online are delivered to your doorstep.

We take these things for granted.

However, the transportation and logistics industry that supports this "normality" is currently in a very difficult situation.

There is a shortage of drivers. Fuel is expensive. There are packages, but they cannot be transported. Smaller companies have less resilience. On top of that, there are institutional changes and rising prices.

This time, rather than relying on intuition, I will organize what is happening in the Japanese transportation and logistics industry by looking at the actual numbers.

The number of bankruptcies remains high

According to Teikoku Databank, the number of bankruptcies in the road freight transport industry in fiscal year 2025 was 321. Although this is a decrease from the previous fiscal year, it is the fourth highest level on record, following fiscal years 2008, 2024, and 2009. In other words, these figures indicate that this is not a temporary anomaly, but a very difficult situation that is continuing. (TDB)

In fiscal year 2024, it reached 351, a level said to be close to that of the Lehman Shock. (Truck News)

What we should note here is that it is not the case that major logistics companies are going bankrupt one after another. What is actually struggling are local small and medium-sized transport companies and small-scale businesses that are close to family-run operations.

In places that are not easily visible, their strength is being quietly eroded.

The labor shortage is serious

The current logistics industry is not in a "recession with no work," but rather a recession where there is work but no people.

According to a survey by Teikoku Databank, the number of bankruptcies due to labor shortages in 2025 was 427 across all industries, the highest ever. Of these, the logistics industry accounted for 52, which is also the highest ever. (TDB)

Based on fiscal year 2025, out of 441 bankruptcies due to labor shortages, the road freight transport industry alone accounts for 55. This is 12.5% of the total. (TDB)

Transport companies cannot generate revenue if they have vehicles but no drivers. Trucks only generate profit when they are running.

They cannot hire people. Even if they do, they do not stay. Retirements are also increasing due to aging. This chain reaction is happening on the ground.

Aging is quite advanced

The age composition of truck drivers is said to be higher than the average for all industries. It is a structure where it is difficult for the younger generation to enter, and middle-aged and older people are supporting the front lines.

In Japan as a whole, the population aged 65 and over has reached about 30%, and the base number of workers itself is decreasing. This impact is greater in rural areas.

In fact, in rural areas,

“We can't find young people with large vehicle licenses,”
“We can't fill the gaps left by retiring veteran drivers,”
“We can't maintain night routes.”

These voices are not uncommon.

Beyond the numbers, the sustainability of the front lines is being called into question.

Rising fuel costs are hitting hard.

The logistics industry is extremely vulnerable to fuel prices.

According to a Teikoku Databank survey, out of 841 bankruptcies caused by high prices in fiscal 2024, the road freight transport industry accounted for 116 cases. About 90% of these cited rising fuel prices as a factor. (TDB)

In fiscal 2025, out of 963 bankruptcies caused by high prices, the road freight transport industry accounted for 91 cases. This remains a high level. (TDB)

For example, even a few yen increase in diesel prices becomes a heavy burden for companies that drive hundreds of kilometers every day.

Moreover, it is not easy to immediately pass these costs on to shipping rates.

From the shipper's perspective, it is easy to think 'other companies can carry it too,' making price negotiations difficult. This is the painful part of this industry.

The 2024 problem is having a major impact on the front lines.

Starting in 2024, caps on overtime work for drivers were introduced. This is a necessary system to correct long working hours.

However, on the ground, it simply results in this:

There is a shortage of people.
But working hours are decreasing.
The volume of cargo is not going to zero.

As a result, routes that were previously handled by one person can no longer be maintained.

Consequently,

Delivery times are extended.
Capacity for redelivery is reduced.
Long-distance routes are harder to schedule.
Profitability of regional routes is deteriorating.

These kinds of changes are likely to occur.

Rather than saying the system itself is bad, it should perhaps be seen as the long-neglected labor shortage suddenly coming to the surface.

There are significant regional disparities.

Logistics are not uniform across the country.

Areas like Tokyo, Osaka, Aichi, and Fukuoka have high cargo volumes, make it easier to consolidate hubs, and are relatively efficient.

On the other hand, regions such as Hokkaido, parts of Tohoku, Shikoku, and parts of Kyushu face challenges like long distances, low population density, and poor consolidation efficiency.

The more rural the area,

the longer the transport distance.
the less cargo there is.
the fewer people there are.

It is easy to fall into this triple bind.

Even for a single delivery, profitability differs significantly between urban and rural areas.

When a naphtha shock occurs, it also affects logistics.

Naphtha is a basic raw material for petrochemical products.

At first glance, it may seem unrelated to logistics, but it is actually quite relevant.

Many items used in logistics operations, such as packaging film, stretch wrap, cushioning materials, pallet components, tapes, and tire-related materials, are linked to the petrochemical industry.

If naphtha prices rise,

packaging material costs increase.
vehicle-related component costs increase.
warehouse material costs increase.

It gradually takes effect in these ways.

If it comes at the same time as high fuel prices, it is quite burdensome.

It also directly affects our daily lives.

This story does not end with industry news.

When logistics weaken,

shipping costs rise.
next-day delivery decreases.
it becomes harder to deliver in rural areas.
food prices rise.
in-store inventory becomes unstable.

In short, it involves both the cost of living and convenience.

Some may have noticed changes in shipping fees for online shopping or delivery times. I don't think that is a coincidence.

What is truly frightening is that it is quietly becoming infrastructure.

Everyone understands that roads, water, and electricity are infrastructure.

But logistics is also, in effect, infrastructure.

If it stops, food and medicine will not be delivered.

Moreover, logistics is a field where its importance is easily noticed only after it breaks down. It is usually invisible. That is why it is easily pushed to the back burner.

In the meantime, the number of people and companies on the front lines is decreasing. This is the scariest part.

In conclusion

The delivery of packages is not something to be taken for granted.

Behind the scenes, there are people driving late at night, people sorting packages, and people running warehouses, somehow keeping society connected.

If you feel like you have been hearing more about rising shipping costs, slower deliveries, and driver shortages lately, it is not just your imagination.

The problems in the transportation and logistics industry are no longer just about the industry; they have become a matter of all our lives.

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