After references to a subscription model were spotted in preview builds of Windows, there's been a lot of talk about Microsoft forcing users to pay a subscription to upgrade to Windows 12. Though subscriptions are a big part of Microsoft's business model — see Microsoft 365 and Xbox Game Pass, among others — it would be a pretty big jump for the company to charge a subscription for the Windows operating system. At this point, we've debunked this rumor, all but determining that the subscription references within Windows were related to enterprise versions of the operating system. But what would a subscription-based version of Windows look like, and how would it change the platform?
Windows users don't upgrade their OS all that often
The simple reason why Windows as a platform would change with a subscription model is that even fewer people would upgrade. In recent years, Microsoft has made upgrades to Windows from older versions free. When you buy a Windows activation license, generally, operating system upgrades are included. That has its limits, as we saw with Microsoft's decision to no longer accept Windows 7 product keys for Windows 11 upgrades. But even with Microsoft's generous approach to operating system upgrades, Windows users don't switch to newer OS versions as often as macOS users.
A little over 3% of Windows machines are still running Windows 7 — an operating system that released in 2009 — in 2023, according to a September report from StatCounter. That's true despite Microsoft ending security support for Windows 7 earlier this year. The most common Windows operating system you'll find is Windows 10, released in 2015, which is installed on more than 70% of Windows machines. Windows 11, the newest version of Windows that debuted in 2021, only has 23% of the market share for Windows devices. These numbers show that Windows users just don't upgrade all that often, even if the upgrade is free.
Even fewer systems would be upgraded with a subscription model
Now, if Windows was shifted to a subscription model? It'd be reasonable to assume that Windows upgrades would grind to a sudden halt. Windows users often choose to keep their current operating system over a new one for a few reasons, including familiarity and app support. Since the Windows platform is so extensively used in the enterprise and education sectors, many IT departments would rather than keep their devices on the operating system they have workflows for than learn a new one. If you add the cost of monthly or yearly subscriptions to the mix, it's unlikely that companies and personal users would upgrade at the same rate they do now.
That's mostly speculation, but we can look to a similar transition for evidence of how companies and users respond to a switch to a subscription model. Adobe's flagship Creative Cloud Suite was originally sold with a perpetual license as an option, but that ended with Adobe CS6. Between 2011 and 2012, Adobe decided to ditch this model in favor of a subscription. While many users eventually switched to the Adobe Creative Cloud subscription, many didn't. I personally know of a few companies and organizations that still use Adobe CS6 apps because they don't want to switch to a subscription. If you take a peek on Adobe's community forums, there are still people trying to use or buy CS6 in 2023 instead of subscribing to Creative Cloud.
Why a Windows subscription would be less successful than Creative Cloud
Adobe's Creative Cloud transition is the closest comparison we can make to a potential Windows subscription model, but they're two very different services. Adobe's pitch for Creative Cloud subscriptions was to make it worth your money by perpetually adding new features and urgently fixing bugs. With an Adobe CC subscription, you'd get feature additions in weeks instead of years. The same argument can't be made for an operating system. There are users using a Windows 7 version that is more than a decade old, and most users are still running Windows 10. The changes and upgrades in each OS release just aren't enough to justify a monthly or yearly subscription.
Microsoft knows this and won't switch to a subscription model
As much as the idea stirs up clicks, we can safely say that Windows 12 won't be switching to a subscription model for personal users. Most Windows users are already disinterested in operating system upgrades, as shown by the market share report from StatCounter. Paired with the fact that past examples of these changes have proven that users will stick with the software they own, it's clear that Windows 12 as a subscription would be unsuccessful. We might start seeing more features be included with Microsoft 365, which does require a subscription, but the standard Windows 12 operating system won't be going that direction anytime soon.