An AI Economy for All of Us

In last month’s article, I wrote that Americans tend to be more concerned than excited about the remarkable advances we’re seeing in AI.

Today, I want to talk about what we can do to ease those concerns and build the trust that gets people excited about what’s ahead.

First some grounding: From the roll-out of steam power to the advent of the computer age, optimism has always been a strategic advantage. Without optimism you don’t invest, you don’t take risks, you don’t try something new. And that’s as true today as it ever was.

But this time, more is on the line: OECD modeling suggests AI could boost U.S. GDP by over 10% in the next decade. If we get this right, we’ll grow the American economy by trillions. 

To ensure this tech wave benefits everyone, we should be doing three things right now:

1. Let's understand what’s going on

There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty about AI’s economic impact. Earlier this month in The New York Times, Ben Casselman summed up the problem: “Researchers can’t even agree on basic questions like how many companies are using AI or which workers are most vulnerable to the disruptions it could cause…the best-known measures of the economy were developed for an era before personal computers and the internet, let alone AI.” 

One of the best ways to address uncertainty is to get more information. It helps to understand an issue before designing solutions. The OODA loop—observe, orient, decide, act—is key.  

We need to complete the "Observe and Orient" phases first so our decisions and actions are grounded in evidence instead of guesswork.

Are new tools displacing workers or making them more productive (and valuable) and creating new opportunities? How many jobs will be created, eliminated, or changed?

History provides a useful, and somewhat encouraging, template for what to expect.

General-purpose technologies like AI typically affect economies in a J-curve pattern: Initially, widespread investment in infrastructure, new software, and workforce retraining drives up business costs, which—combined with the disruption of restructuring workflows—can cause a temporary dip in measured productivity and growth. However, this is followed by an upward swing as businesses rethink entire business models, creating entirely new products, services, and high-value jobs.

The goal of policy should be to make that dip of the “J” as shallow and brief as possible, while encouraging the upswing, promoting new applications that will drive new employment. But without precise, real-time data and grounded forecasts, policymakers and business leaders are flying blind—making it harder to create smart policy responses. 

That’s why we’re pushing for more and better studies of the real impacts of AI. We’ve endorsed several bipartisan bills in Congress that could help, and we’re taking proactive steps in the meantime. 

For example, just last week, we released our first Activity, Task, Landscape, and Adoption Study (ATLAS). 

Built on an aggregate analysis of 15 million de-identified Google AI interactions, the report spans more than 150 countries, 140 languages, 800 occupations, and 4,000 tasks. The result represents the most comprehensive look to date at how real people are using AI at scale in work and life.

Be on the lookout for more of us in this space. By measuring how people are actually using AI tools, our goal is to provide the insights the public and policymakers need to inform ongoing discussions and decisions about AI and the economy.

2. Let's get people the skills and tools they need

We’re used to a few models of employment—working for big companies or small businesses; being an independent contractor; working on a series of projects. 

But by removing barriers to entry, AI has upended these traditional models and opened up the potential for people to earn a living in entirely new ways.  

It’s exciting, and sometimes disorienting, to see how entrepreneurs, solopreneurs, and small business owners are using AI to streamline operations, punch above their weight, and test new ideas. Three quick examples from our own case studies: 

• A former soccer player in Chicago tapped into Gemini to grow his cognitive motor startup and accelerate daily operations.
• A tea shop owner in Atlanta shared her brand book and built out a full-scale marketing campaign 
• A breakfast brand born in a dorm room used Gemini to reach grocery shelves and grow their wholesale business.

While AI tools are already force multipliers for AI champions, it’s important to build new avenues for training and opportunity. One no-regrets move is getting AI skills to the people and businesses who think they’ll benefit. And we may need to re-examine how we provide employment-centered programs for health care, unemployment insurance, and retirement planning to accommodate an evolving workforce.

3. Let's work together to scale, test, and learn

Lots of people are using AI, but not always in the most effective or coordinated ways.

June research from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation and Ipsos says that “about one in five workers (19%) say adoption at their organization has been driven mostly by employees exploring tools on their own, compared with just 11% who say it has been driven by organizational guidance or direction.”

We’ve been encouraging leaders to be intentional about adoption plans—and we’ve found a lot of success taking that approach at Google. 

The fact is, across every sector, AI adoption will shift from a competitive advantage to a core necessity. Organizations that fail to integrate agentic workflows will risk falling behind.

Having public examples of governments using AI to streamline and upgrade services can inspire others to follow suit. That’s why we’ve also been working with organizations like the US Conference of Mayors to customize playbooks that can help their own teams build a culture of innovation that translates into better public services.

Final thoughts

Is the AI shift going to be good for you?

I’m optimistic considering AI’s already proving its potential as a game-changer. But the work we all do today will make the difference.

By understanding its effects, flexing to meet the needs of tomorrow’s workforce, and driving public-private partnerships, we’ll demonstrate “The Why of AI” for the economy.