2017
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-12448-7
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The number of key carcinogenic events can be predicted from cancer incidence

Abstract: The widely accepted multiple-hit hypothesis of carcinogenesis states that cancers arise after several successive events. However, no consensus has been reached on the quantity and nature of these events, although “driver” mutations or epimutations are considered the most probable candidates. By using the largest publicly available cancer incidence statistics (20 million cases), I show that incidence of 20 most prevalent cancer types in relation to patients’ age closely follows the Erlang probability distributi… Show more

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Cited by 63 publications

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“…The predicted maximal populational susceptibility varied from 0.0322%, for extracranial and extragonadal germ cell tumours of childhood, to 1.966%, for malignant gonadal germ cell tumours. Overall, the data confirm high heterogeneity in carcinogenesis patterns revealed in the previous study 13 .…”
Section: Results
supporting
confidence: 90%