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. 2018 Sep;146(12):1478-1494.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268818001760. Epub 2018 Jul 4.

Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis

Y Ma  1 , C R Horsburgh  2 , L F White  1 , H E Jenkins  1
Affiliations

Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis

Y Ma et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Sep.

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global infectious cause of death. Understanding TB transmission is critical to creating policies and monitoring the disease with the end goal of TB elimination. To our knowledge, there has been no systematic review of key transmission parameters for TB. We carried out a systematic review of the published literature to identify studies estimating either of the two key TB transmission parameters: the serial interval (SI) and the reproductive number. We identified five publications that estimated the SI and 56 publications that estimated the reproductive number. The SI estimates from four studies were: 0.57, 1.42, 1.44 and 1.65 years; the fifth paper presented age-specific estimates ranging from 20 to 30 years (for infants <1 year old) to <5 years (for adults). The reproductive number estimates ranged from 0.24 in the Netherlands (during 1933-2007) to 4.3 in China in 2012. We found a limited number of publications and many high TB burden settings were not represented. Certain features of TB dynamics, such as slow transmission, complicated parameter estimation, require novel methods. Additional efforts to estimate these parameters for TB are needed so that we can monitor and evaluate interventions designed to achieve TB elimination.

Keywords: Reproductive number; serial interval; systematic review; tuberculosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Important infectious disease intervals. The time between a and c is the serial interval; the time between b and c is the incubation period.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Flow diagram of articles included in the search of estimates of the serial interval.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Flow diagram of articles included in the search of estimates of the reproductive number.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Reproductive number from studies with explicit R estimate from empirical data. Notes: (1) The range is for years 2005-2012, with the reproductive number estimated at 3.33, 3.72, 3.38, 3.97, 4.29, 3.32, 3.92 and 4.30, respectively. (2) For each location, the first R corresponds to drug-sensitive population and the second correspond to drug-resistant population. (3) R estimated for 35 states and union territories of India with estimates ranging from 0.72 to 0.98; 0.92 is the overall estimate for India. (4) For each location, the first R corresponds to drug-sensitive population and the second correspond to drug-resistant population. (5) Bordgorff in [–29] estimated the reproductive number for the Netherlands from 1993 to 2007 at around 0.26 with lower bound of the 95% CI around 0.20 and upper bound around 0.32. (6) Broken lines indicate range; solid lines indicate 95% confidence interval. (7) Vynnycky and Fine [23] in 1998 estimated the basic reproductive number to decline from about 3 in 1900 to 2 in 1950 and to below 1 in about 1960 for England and Wales, which is not included in this graph.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Shaded areas and stars indicate countries and cities with reproductive number estimates. Multiple estimates: China, Taiwan, USA, India; one estimate: Ukraine, the Netherlands, South Africa, the UK. *indicates San Francisco corresponding to data used in [–32].
Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.
Examples of mathematical compartmental models.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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