The 'Mother Who Decides on a 90,000 Yen School Bag' and the 'Town That Chooses a 10,000 Yen Backpack'

📌 What you will learn in this article

• The reality of the '6-pocket economy' where school bag prices have roughly doubled in 20 years despite the declining birthrate

• The polarized structure where '90,000 yen instant decisions' and 'municipal free distribution' coexist in the same country in the same year

• What you really need to prepare for in 'Ran-katsu' (school bag hunting)—the significance of families deciding 'what they are worried about'

The school bag hunt for my son, who will be an elementary school student next year, has begun in our home as well.

Honestly, as a parent, my first reaction was, 'Wait, isn't it too early?' My feelings were still tied to his time in nursery school, and I couldn't really grasp the idea of preparing for elementary school.

However, I was surprised when I saw the 2026 survey by the Japan School Bag Association. The peak time for starting to consider a purchase is April of the year before enrollment, at 16.7%. Furthermore, 14.9% of families start moving as early as December of the year before that. In other words, the current standard is that choosing a school bag starts not in the spring of the final year of kindergarten, but in the winter of the second-to-last year.

I thought I had already started the school bag hunt the moment I requested a catalog. But in reality, there are people who are already late even at that point. It was the moment I realized there was a huge gap between the speed of the market and my own sense of timing.📚

And another thing I noticed was the price. The average purchase price is 62,034 yen. Since it was 29,900 yen 20 years ago in 2006, it has ballooned to about double. I wonder if the school bag has changed from a 'school supply' into 'something else'.

Thinking that, when I read the Nikkei Cross Trend article, the issues suddenly became clear.

Chapter 1 | What is happening at the scene of '90,000 yen instant decisions'

There is an impressive episode in the xtrend article. A family consisting of a grandmother, a mother, and a boy from Ibaraki Prefecture visited the Tsuchiya Kaban main store in Nishiarai. The boy happily put on a school bag costing about 90,000 yen with a black base and red trim.

The mother reportedly said this: She had requested catalogs from four companies. Even so, she visited Tsuchiya Kaban first, saw and touched the product, and decided on the spot.

Four companies' catalogs—in other words, she had done sufficient comparative research. Yet, she decided at the very first store.

The essence of today's school bag hunt is condensed in this passage.

In the Japan School Bag Association's survey, the points emphasized at the time of purchase are 'child's favorite color' at 85.8%, 'design' at 35.1%, 'fit/ease of carrying' at 21.6%, and 'lightness' at 19.7%. On the surface, the school bag hunt is supposed to be about comparing functions, designs, and colors.

However, when looking at the reality of purchase channels, a different picture emerges. Compared to 2018, before COVID-19, purchases at general supermarkets have decreased, while purchases at manufacturer-direct stores and exhibitions have increased. 'Places where you can touch the product' are being chosen.

The gap between the numbers and the reality is shown here.

They request catalogs from four companies to create the memory that they 'compared and decided.' But the actual decision is made at the store, the moment the child puts on the real thing and their face lights up. 90,000 yen is expensive, but if it is the price for the sense of satisfaction at that moment, it strangely doesn't feel high.

A randoseru is a product that looks like a bag for a child to carry, but is actually a way for parents to pre-purchase six years of peace of mind.

The conclusion of Chapter 1 boils down to this.

Chapter 2 | The 6-Pocket Economy: Fewer Children, But Higher Expectations per Child

So, why do prices keep rising to this extent?

Logically, if the number of children decreases, the randoseru market should shrink. In fact, according to the final figures released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for 2024, the number of births was 686,173. For the first time since statistics began, it fell below 700,000. The total fertility rate was 1.15, also a record low. In Tokyo, it even fell below 1.0 for the first time, at 0.96.

There is no sign that the declining birthrate will stop.

Even so, the randoseru market has not shrunk. According to estimates by the NLI Research Institute, after expanding to a scale of 56.3 billion yen in 2022–2023, it turned to a contraction to 55.2 billion yen in 2024, but it is still about 30% larger than it was 10 years ago.

The reason is that the amount of money spent on each child is ballooning.

Looking at the breakdown of payers in the Japan Randoseru Association's 2026 survey reveals an interesting structure.

両親が払った       : 44.2%
祖父母（母方）     : 24.5%
祖父母（父方）     : 27.9%
祖父母合計         : 52.4%

Grandparents are paying more than parents.

If you combine parents and grandparents, that makes six people. This is the structure known as the '6-pocket' economy, where the wallets of six adults are directed toward one grandchild. If the number of adults per child increases due to the declining birthrate, the amount of money that can be spent on one child naturally increases as well.

Furthermore, the income structure of the parent generation is also having an effect. The Cabinet Office's 2025 Economic and Fiscal White Paper clearly states that from 1984 to 2024, the wage curve has flattened, particularly among those in their 40s. According to data compiled by doda, the median annual income for full-time employees in their 40s is 4.5 million yen, remaining flat from the previous year. Salaries for those in their late 30s to 40s, who are the core generation for child-rearing, have not grown much over the last decade or so.

In other words, the structure is as follows:

• Parents want to pay, but their salaries are not growing

• Grandparents can afford to pay, and they only have one or two grandchildren

• Therefore, the assets of the grandparent generation are flowing into randoseru

There was a moment while researching when my hypothesis collapsed with a loud noise. I had thought, 'The reason randoseru have become expensive is that parents have become luxury-oriented.' But in reality, it's not that parents have become luxury-oriented.It is not the parents' wallets, but the grandparents' wallets that are moving. When I realized this, I felt I could clearly see the relationship between the 'number of children' and the 'expectations placed on each one'.

Children are decreasing. However, the expectations placed on each one are increasing. If anything, they are becoming more intense.

That 'intensity' is what supports the price of randoseru.

Chapter 3 | Polarization Progressing in the Same Country: Luxury at the Top, Free Backpacks at the Bottom

This is where the core of this article lies.

The school bag market is not moving in a single direction of rising prices. Rather, it is splitting in two opposite directions simultaneously.

⬆️ Upward direction: School bags becoming the 'gateway to a lifelong brand'

Following the moves of Tsuchiya Kaban Manufacturing reveals this clearly.

売れ筋ランドセル価格帯   : 8万円台
最高級モデル(HERTE)     : 19万円
職人数                  : 約200名(3拠点工房)
国内外店舗              : 30店舗超
大人かばん価格帯         : 5万円台〜30万円台
OTONA RANDSEL価格推移   : 2015年10万円 → 現在198,000〜253,000円

Particularly noteworthy is the price trend of the OTONA RANDSEL (Adult School Bag). The product, which cost 100,000 yen when released for the company's 50th anniversary in 2015, has entered a price range about twice that high in 10 years.

And recently, a full-scale expansion into Europe has begun. They announced a collaboration at Pitti Uomo in Florence, Italy, with Japanese fashion designer SHINYAKOZUKA, and collaborated with Mame Kurogouchi in Paris. Domestically, plans have also been revealed to open stores right next to overseas luxury brands.

These are not the moves of a school bag maker for children.

Increasing craftsmen to 200, expanding to 3 workshops, developing over 30 stores, selling top-tier school bags for 190,000 yen, doubling the price of adult bags in 10 years, and opening stores right next to European luxury brands. The answer is clear just by lining up the facts. This is not the scale of a company that makes tools for children to use for six years.

School bags have become an 'entry-level product' for a brand that customers will continue to buy throughout their lives. It is not a graduation after six years of use, but rather the parents themselves carrying adult school bags for the next 40 years. It is designed so that the child's milestone becomes the starting point of a brand experience, turning them into lifelong customers.

⬇️ Downward direction: School bags becoming 'objects for which local governments reduce the burden'

On the other hand, there is a movement in a completely different direction.

The 'Wan Pack,' developed by outdoor manufacturer Montbell, is a school backpack that costs in the 10,000 yen range including tax, weighs less than 1kg, and can store both textbooks and tablets. It was co-developed with Tateyama Town in Toyama Prefecture and has been distributed free of charge to new elementary school students in the town since the 2023 fiscal year.

Free distribution is not limited to Tateyama Town.

茨城県日立市      : 1975年〜(50年継続) / オリジナル550g
茨城県内合計      : 15市町村(全44のうち約1/3)
富山県立山町      : 2023年〜 / モンベル「わんパック」
山口県防府市      : 2023年〜 / 独自の通学用かばん
徳島県鳴門市      : 2023年〜 / 申請率9割超
長野県駒ケ根市    : 2023年〜 / モンベル製
山形県村山市      : 2023年〜 / モンベル製
大阪府摂津市      : 実施中  / 通学用リュック
桜川市(茨城)     : LGBTQ配慮で2024年から多色化

In Ibaraki Prefecture alone, 15 municipalities, or about one-third of all 44 local governments, are implementing free school bag distribution. The application rate for those who want them in Naruto City has exceeded 90%, and it has already become established as a realistic option.

There is also a public opinion poll (2023) showing that 70% of parents are in favor of municipal provision. The very premise that 'school bags are something you choose yourself' is beginning to waver.

🎒 The structural culprit of the 'weight problem'

And there is a problem that cuts through both the upward and downward directions.

According to a 2025 survey by Footmark, the average weight of a school bag containing textbooks is 3.94kg. It decreased from 4.13kg the previous year, falling below 4kg for the first time. The efforts of each company to reduce weight are certainly bearing fruit.

However, the children's physical perception has not changed. 90.4% of first to third graders feel that 'school bags are heavy'. Furthermore, 90.7% are also carrying bags other than their school bags.

Why does weight reduction not lead to a change in perception? The culprit lies in the school environment.

教科書の総ページ数  : 2005年4,857p → 2020年8,520p (約1.75倍)
教科書の判型変化    : B5判96.3% → A4判が20.3%まで拡大
タブレット端末      : 2020年GIGAスクール構想で1人1台、約1.2kg
水筒                : コロナ後で携行が標準化、約1kg

Even if school bag manufacturers strive to reduce weight, textbooks are getting larger, tablets add 1.2kg, water bottles add 1kg, and in the end, 5 to 6kg ends up on a child's back. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology issued a notification in September 2018 allowing 'leaving school supplies at school,' but implementation in the field is inconsistent.

The original ideal of a 'durable bag that can be used for 6 years' is currently malfunctioning in two directions.At the top, the meaning has shifted to 'an entry-level product for lifelong customer acquisition,' and at the bottom, it has become a 'health issue due to being too heavy'. The process of an ideal dying in the field is currently happening with school bags.

And I want to ask one thing in this chapter.

❓ For whom is your family's 'ran-katsu' (school bag hunting) really for?

Is it for the child? For the parents' peace of mind? For the grandparents' well-wishes? Or is it for the story prepared by the brand?

Chapter 4 | Redefining 'Preparation' — School bag hunting is preparation for 6 years of commuting to school

Based on the structure discussed so far, I would like to talk about 'preparation' at the end.

The objects to be prepared for in school bag hunting can actually be broken down into four categories.

① 完売・出遅れ不安への備え   : 4月から検討開始する家庭が16.7%
② 家族間の意見調整への備え   : 子どもの好み・親の機能重視・祖父母の祝意
③ 6年間の体格・荷物変化      : 1年生と6年生で体重も荷物量も別物
④ 選択肢の多様化への備え     : 買う/もらう/借りる、3択時代

What we should pay attention to is (4). School bags are no longer just 'things to buy'.

• Buying: Workshop brands 30,000 to 190,000 yen, mass-market brands 20,000 to 100,000 yen

• Receiving: Municipal free distribution, backpack-type or school bag-type

• Borrowing: Subscription service RandS (Kokubo) for 2,970 to 4,950 yen per month, exchangeable from about 250 types

The era where 'buying' was the only option is over. Depending on family circumstances, you can choose from three directions.

And according to Seiban's 2026 survey, 96% of final purchase decisions are made 'mainly by the child' or 'by both the child and the adult.' Adults decide 70% of the functionality, but children decide over 90% of the design and color.Choosing a school bag has become a process of family consensus building itself.

Here, I would like to ask one more thing.

❓ For your family, is a school bag a 'commemorative expense'? Or is it a 'tool to be used for 6 years'?

If you view it as a 'commemorative expense,' even a 90,000 yen Tsuchiya Kaban bag might be cheap. It is an investment in the experience of the whole family celebrating the child's once-in-a-lifetime elementary school entrance.

If you view it as a 'tool to be used for 6 years,' a 10,000 yen backpack might be enough. If it meets the requirements for weight, durability, and functionality, the price is just a means to an end.

Neither is the correct answer.Because 'what one worries about' differs for each family, the answer also differs.

The essence of school bag hunting is not choosing a school bag.It is the work of the family articulating their 'preparation' for the routine that lasts the longest in a child's life: commuting to school for 6 years.

Summary | Preparation means deciding in advance what you are worried about

Finally, let's summarize this into three points.

1. The reason school bag prices keep rising is not because parents are luxury-oriented, but because of the 'six-pocket' structure where six adults (parents + both sets of grandparents) concentrate their spending on one grandchild.

2. In the same country and in the same year, 90,000 yen instant purchases (Tsuchiya Kaban), free distributions (municipalities), and subscriptions (2,970 yen per month) coexist. This is not a series of disconnected phenomena, but a polarization that occurs because each family has a different 'target for preparation'.

3. The essence of 'Ran-katsu' (school bag hunting) is not 'how much to spend on a school bag,' but rather articulating in advance what your family is worried about regarding the six-year commuting experience.

A word from Zawa4

The true meaning of the phrase 'Better safe than sorry' is not to 'prepare for everything'.

It is to articulate in advance what your family is worried about.

Whether it is 90,000 yen or 10,000 yen is merely the result. If you have room in your household budget, 90,000 yen is fine. If you don't want to put a burden on your child's body, a 10,000 yen backpack is fine. If you want to respect the grandparents' desire to celebrate, a boutique brand is fine. Whether you can line up your family circumstances, your child's situation, and the reality of your household budget, and discuss as a family what you are preparing for—that is the core of school bag hunting.

The number of children is decreasing. The expectations placed on each child are becoming heavier.

That weight is already resting on the price of the school bag and on the child's back.

What we can do is consciously choose what we have them carry. I believe that is the true 'preparation' for families currently facing elementary school enrollment.

#Rankatsu #SchoolBag #TsuchiyaKaban #SixPocketEconomy #DecliningBirthrate #Parenting #Preparation #Zawa4Channel