🏭 Manufacturing Electricity Costs Are Changing Dramatically! Why 'Flexible Solar Cells' Can End Dependence on China

🎯 Conclusion: Japan's manufacturing industry is in the midst of a 'triple structural transformation'

Hello, this is Zawa4.

This time, I will talk about the 'quiet revolution' happening in the energy industry from the perspective of someone who has observed manufacturing sites for 25 years.

I'll give you the conclusion first👇

'Wait, isn't solar power already outdated?'
'What is perovskite, and is it any good?'

If you thought that, please wait a moment.

By the time you finish reading this article, you will realize that this is a topic that affects everything from your investment decisions, career choices, and household financial protection.

📉 Chapter 1: Why mega-solar has 'checkmated'

🚫 There are no suitable sites left

First, let me share a shocking fact.

Japan's solar power capacity per flat land area is already among the highest in major countries

In other words, 'there is no more room to put them.'

'Then why not just clear the mountains?'

Yes, the result of doing that is👇

😤 Intensification of resident opposition movements

In the mega-solar project around the Kushiro Wetland in Hokkaido, an astonishing 175,000 signatures of opposition were collected.

• Impact on the special natural monument red-crowned crane

• Landscape destruction

• Risk of landslides

Similar protest movements have occurred in various regions, and from 2014 to 2021, 149 regulatory ordinances have been enacted.

💸 And 'even if you generate power, you can't sell it'

Adding further insult to injury is the output control problem.

This is a state where even if you generate electricity, the power company tells you, 'We don't need it right now, so stop.'

This is the reality of mega-solar projects.

☀️ Chapter 2: The Savior Known as 'Flexible Solar Cells'

🎬 Silicon vs. Perovskite, what's the difference?

This is where **Perovskite Solar Cells (PSC)** come in.

'Perovskite' is the name of a crystal structure. You don't need to overthink it.

What's important is how different it is from conventional silicon solar cells👇

Especially for those in the manufacturing industry, please look closely at the last line.

'Raw materials can be procured domestically'

I will explain in detail in the next chapter just how significant this is.

🏭 The era when 'factory windows' become power plants

What do the lightness and flexibility of perovskite make possible?

You can install solar panels in places you had previously given up on.

• Factory roofs built in the Showa era with insufficient load-bearing capacity

• The vertical walls of buildings

• Make them semi-transparent and turn the window glass itself into a power generator

I have experience working on a project to visualize power consumption in manufacturing plants.

What surprised me at the time was the 'opportunity loss' of factory roofs sitting under the scorching sun during lunch breaks, producing nothing.

When we tried installing several dozen kW of solar panels, we succeeded in reducing peak power by 20%.

You might think, 'It's only 20%.'

But in manufacturing, these incremental gains really add up.

🇯🇵 Chapter 3: The Trump Card Only Japan Possesses—'Iodine'

🌍 Japan Lost in the Silicon Solar Cell Market

Let's look back at history for a moment.

Japan once boasted over 40% of the global market share in silicon solar cells.

And now?

China holds over 80%, while Japanese companies are at almost zero

Why did we lose?

The answer is simple: because they seized control of the supply chain.

💎 The Situation Reverses with Perovskite

However, the main raw material for perovskite solar cells is iodine.

And the global production share of iodine is 👇

Moreover, Japan's iodine is extracted from the Minami-Kanto Gas Field in Chiba Prefecture.

In other words, everything from raw materials to finished products can be completed domestically.

From the perspective of economic security, this is an incredibly powerful card.

🏢 The Seriousness of Japanese Companies

You can tell how serious they are by looking at the scale of each company's investment👇

Sekisui Chemical's planned factory site is the former site of a Sharp LCD panel factory.

Reviving the legacy of a 'former king' with next-generation technology.

If this were a TV drama script, it would give you goosebumps, wouldn't it?

⚠️ Chapter 4: However, There Is an 'Achilles' Heel' Called Rare Earths

😰 Another Problem of Dependence on China

'Perovskite will help us break free from China! Hurray!'

...I would like to say that, but it's not that simple.

There is another issue called **rare earths**.

Rare earths are essential for the following products:

• EV motors

• Wind power turbines

• Factory robots

• Medical equipment (MRI)

In other words, we are still being held by the throat by China when it comes to the motors and equipment that use the electricity generated by perovskite.

📊 What Happens If Exports Are Restricted?

According to Nomura Research Institute's estimates👇

In fact, Japan's high-tech industry was hit hard by China's rare earth embargo triggered by the 2010 Senkaku Islands incident.

It is said that while manufacturing sites at the time scrambled to develop alternative materials and build up stockpiles, it ultimately resulted in increased costs.

**'The fear of having resources controlled by other countries'** is something Japan has learned firsthand.

🔧 Development of alternative technologies is progressing

However, there is hope.

Minamitorishima Island holds hundreds of years' worth of global demand in rare-earth mud.

If commercialization is achieved by 2028, it could be a game changer.

📅 Chapter 5: Organizing the Future 'Roadmap'

🗓️ Milestones for 2025–2040

⚖️ Three Scenarios

🌈 Optimistic (20%)

• Technological breakthroughs achieved early

• 'Decentralized Energy Powerhouse Japan' is born

• Japanese manufacturing maintains its competitiveness

⚖️ Neutral (60%)

• Gradual progress, but complete independence from China won't happen until after 2030

• A hybrid system where centralized and decentralized coexist

• 'Fairly good' achievement

⛈️ Pessimistic (20%)

• No technological breakthroughs occur

• Resource cutoff due to intensifying conflict with China

• 'Energy supply chain crisis' arrives

🎬 Chapter 6: What Should You Do?

💼 For Those Working in Manufacturing

Short-term (1-2 years)

• [ ] Visualize supply chain down to Tier 2 and Tier 3

• [ ] Increase safety stock of critical components by 2-3 times

• [ ] Develop alternative suppliers (via Lynas, MP Materials)

Medium-term (3-5 years)

• [ ] Consider switching to heavy rare earth-free products

• [ ] Fix electricity costs through renewable energy PPA contracts

• [ ] Evaluate the economic viability of reshoring

Long-term (over 5 years)

• [ ] Formulate a plan to achieve RE100

• [ ] Strengthen early detection capabilities for geopolitical risks

📈 For Investors

Sectors to Watch

• Perovskite-related materials (Sekisui Chemical, Ise Chemical)

• Power semiconductors (SiC/GaN)

• Rare earth alternative technologies

Risks to Watch Out For

• Electronic component manufacturers with high dependence on China

• Mega-solar specialized business operator

Skills with rapidly increasing demand as a career

• Supply chain management

• Economic security and geopolitical risk analysis

• Energy management

• GX/ESG consulting

🏠 For general consumers

Electricity cost countermeasures

• [ ] Consider self-consumption solar power generation (zero initial cost with PPA)

• [ ] Consider installing storage batteries

• [ ] Select renewable energy plans from power companies

Numbers you should know

• Renewable energy levy: 3.98 yen/kWh (FY2025)

• Annual burden for a standard household: approx. 19,000 yen

The benefits of switching to self-consumption are definitely expanding.

📝 Summary: 'Protecting our own strengths ourselves'

This has been a long read, so let's summarize.

🔑 3 key points of this article

1️⃣ Mega-solar is reaching its limits due to 'lack of suitable land,' 'resident opposition,' and 'output control'
→ The next main battlefield is 'factory windows and walls'

2️⃣ Japan can make a comeback with perovskite solar cells
→ The only chance to supply raw material iodine domestically

3️⃣ However, the 'Achilles' heel' of rare earths remains
→ We must hold out until commercialization on Minami-Torishima in 2028

💡 The author's unique perspective

From the perspective of the manufacturing floor, renewable energy is not a matter of 'good or evil'.

It is a matter of 'whether it works or not'.

No matter how ideal it may be, if there are no parts, the line stops. If there is no local understanding, the plan will fail.

In a town plunged into darkness by a disaster, there are places where lights flicker on.

Those were factories and hospitals with their own power sources.

Spreading the strength of that light across Japan.

That is my earnest wish as someone responsible for the front lines.

If you found this article interesting or useful, please give it a like♡!

Next time, I plan to explain 'Can Japan make a comeback in power semiconductors?'

📚 Reference Information

• METI '7th Strategic Energy Plan'

• IEA 'Special Report on Solar PV'

• NEDO 'Green Innovation Fund'

• Company press releases and IR materials

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