Saying 'Stop Eating Ultra-Processed Foods' Is No Preparation: Who Pays for the Deferred Costs of Convenience?

📌 What you will learn in this article

• The real problem with ultra-processed foods is not that they are 'bad for your health,' but the structure of a time-poor society.

• Why Suntory and Kirin are moving into pharmaceuticals and decarbonization, and the tectonic shifts ahead for the food industry.

• The 'escape preparation' and 'ride-along preparation' individuals can take, and the order in which to cut costs to protect household finances.

🍫 Introduction: Is your 'healthy breakfast' really okay?

In the morning, there is no time.

But I want to be careful about my health.

So I bite into a protein bar. I pour milk over granola. I drink a yogurt drink. I choose beverages with packages labeled 'sugar-free'.

At first glance, it seems proper. At the very least, it looks healthier than sweet buns or cup noodles.

But in the world of food, there is a way of categorizing food not by 'whether it seems nutritious' but by 'how industrially it is made.' It is called the NOVA classification, and at the top, meaning the category with the highest degree of processing, is classified as 'ultra-processed food'.

What is a little scary here is that it is not necessarily only foods that are obviously bad for the body that become ultra-processed foods. Even foods that look healthy can be classified as ultra-processed foods depending on their ingredients and manufacturing methods. Protein bars, granola, sweetened yogurt drinks, commercial smoothies, and some plant-based milks. While wearing a healthy-looking face, there are surprisingly many foods that are actually industrially reconstituted.

In other words, this is not just a story for people who eat potato chips or cup noodles. We may be choosing to defer the costs of convenience while thinking we are being careful about our health.

And on April 30, 2026, the same day the Nikkei Electronic Edition reported research results that 'reducing ultra-processed foods reduces calories,' other news surrounding Suntory Holdings and Kirin Holdings was also lined up. The four food-related articles, which seem unrelated at first glance, are actually talking about the same structure.

Our lives, which depend on convenience, and the major food companies that have turned that dependence into business. Both are now simultaneously reaching a turning point.

Chapter 1: Research is beautiful, reality is different

1-1. Those who can say 'just reduce it' and those who cannot

The content of the news is simple.

'If you refrain from ultra-processed foods, your intake of fruits and vegetables will increase, and your calories will naturally decrease.'

In a study by the University of Bristol, people who ate a diet centered on minimally processed foods consumed 330 fewer kilocalories per day compared to those who ate a diet centered on ultra-processed foods, even though they ate 57% more by weight. Another trial published in Nature Medicine also showed that even when following healthy dietary guidelines, a diet centered on minimally processed foods resulted in greater reductions in weight, BMI, and fat mass.

Reading just this much, one might think, 'I see, I should just cut back on ultra-processed foods.'

But I want to pause here for a moment.

Research is something that happens inside a laboratory. Participants are provided with meals, and their options are carefully curated.

Our daily lives are not like that.

It's 6:00 PM, the kids are complaining they're hungry, the laundry is piled high, and tomorrow's daycare preparations aren't finished yet. There are still 10 unread work emails. The truth is, there is no mental space to open the fridge and think about what to cook.

Microwaveable chicken nuggets, frozen pizza, sweet buns, instant cup soup, and retort curry.

These are not 'things eaten by people with weak willpower.' They are built into our lives as products that buy us time, allowing us to manage housework, work, and childcare in modern society.

1-2. 30-40% of Japanese people are already running on ultra-processed foods

An analysis of 8-day food records from 2,742 Japanese adults by the Shinozaki Laboratory at the University of Tokyo found that energy intake from ultra-processed foods accounted for 30-40% of total daily energy intake. In a scenario that includes dining out and prepared deli foods, that figure rises to 42.4%.

Another study targeting children and young people also confirmed that ultra-processed foods account for more than a quarter of total energy intake, and that higher consumption is associated with lower intake of fruits, vegetables, and legumes, and higher intake of snacks.

And the younger the person, the higher the dependency. The ratio of ultra-processed foods structurally increases in dual-income households, households with children, and among those working long hours.

In other words, a significant portion of the Japanese population is already in a position where 'life cannot function without ultra-processed foods.'

1-3. Labeling 'ultra-processed foods = evil' is also too simplistic

However, condemning all ultra-processed foods at once is also dangerous.

The NOVA classification is divided into four groups, and Group 4 (ultra-processed foods) includes a wide range of items such as sugary cereals, carbonated drinks, mass-produced bread, margarine, processed meats, and plant-based milks. Some of these are fortified with nutrients or serve a social purpose (food preservation, cost, and accessibility).

A report by the UK Parliament also points out that the NOVA classification is broad and can include foods that appear healthy, and that it is difficult to isolate the health effects of individual foods. Furthermore, experts have noted that the re-analysis in Nature Medicine is based on small-scale, short-term clinical trial data, and that replication in studies reflecting real-world food environments is necessary.

Therefore, the real problem is not ultra-processed foods themselves.

The real issue is the structure where foods designed to be cheap, fast, intense, and easy to eat quietly narrow our life choices.

💡 Personal Experience Slot ①: The sense of discomfort I felt after laying out the data

To be honest, when I first saw the '30-40%' figure, I just skimmed over it, thinking, 'Is that all?' Thirty percent of Japanese people's energy intake comes from ultra-processed foods. Huh, I see.

However, the moment I lined up other numbers alongside them, I felt a sense of discomfort.

A survey by the University of Tokyo shows that the 18-39 age group has a clearly higher ratio than the 60-79 age group. This is the generation in the thick of raising children, the generation juggling dual incomes and racing against the clock, and the generation currently facing the tightest household budget constraints.

Research findings that say 'Let's cut back on ultra-processed foods for the sake of our health' are written for a demographic that can realistically afford to cut back.

For those who want to cut back but cannot because they lack the time, money, and physical energy, that sound logic barely resonates.

The research figures are clean, but there are a vast number of people in Japan living outside those numbers. When I realized this, I decided to write this article not as a 'health article' but as an 'article about structure'.

Chapter 2: Suntory x Kirin, the 16-Year Shift Toward 'Medicine'

2-1. 16 Years After the Merger Fell Through, Their Gazes Align Again

In February 2010, merger negotiations between Suntory Holdings and Kirin Holdings ended in failure. Had it been realized, it would have created one of the world's largest food companies with sales of approximately 3.8 trillion yen.

The biggest bottleneck in the failed merger was said to be the issue of concentrated voting rights held by the Suntory founding family. There were also reports at the time that the Suntory side had demanded the separation of the pharmaceutical division (Kyowa Hakko Kirin) from Kirin as a prerequisite for the merger.

That was 16 years ago.

In April 2026, Suntory announced it would acquire the over-the-counter (OTC) drug business from Daiichi Sankyo for approximately 240 billion yen. The plan is to incorporate the powerful OTC brands Loxonin S and Gaster 10 in three stages between June 2026 and June 2029.

The Nikkei electronic edition reported the following on the same day:

'The strategy of strengthening medicine and health-related areas has become clear, and the management vectors have aligned with their fated rival, Kirin HD.'

In other words, the side that said 'We don't need medicine' 16 years ago has now gone out to acquire pharmaceutical OTC products themselves.

And as for Kirin, they have already grown their Health Science business (including Fancl, etc.) to a scale of 251.4 billion yen in sales, and have explicitly stated in their long-term management vision that they will 'create value in the domain spanning from food to medicine.' It has been explained that the Health Science business turned a profit in 2025.

2-2. This Is Not a 'Health Boom,' but a Story of 'Growth Ceilings'

The reason the two companies moved in similar directions is not because health is a trend.

Domestic beer demand has been shrinking over the long term. The declining birthrate and aging population, the younger generation's move away from alcohol, and the structural changes in dining-out opportunities after COVID-19. It is now structurally difficult to continue increasing sales with alcoholic beverages and drinks alone.

This is a state that can be called a 'scale collapse'.

The very foundation for growth is hitting a ceiling. There are only three options left.

1. Expand overseas (the path taken by Asahi Group Holdings in Europe and Oceania)

2. Pivot toward health, pharmaceuticals, and functional products (the path chosen by Suntory and Kirin)

3. Rebuild through RTD and business structural reform (the direction of Sapporo Holdings)

Suntory is aggressive in pharmaceutical OTC, while Kirin is defensive with health science and environmental investment. On the surface, they are rivals, but in reality, they are like doctors who read the same medical chart but wrote different prescriptions.

2-3. Another movement: 2 billion yen for upstream decarbonization

On the same day, April 30, the Nikkei electronic edition also reported other news regarding Kirin Holdings.

Kirin Holdings announced it will invest approximately 2 billion yen by 2030 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across its entire supply chain. This is an investment cost calculation targeting indirect emissions (Scope 3), including raw material procurement, logistics, and packaging, rather than its own factories (Scope 1 and 2).

Kirin has already launched a collaborative program with 17 major suppliers in 2024 and has become the first global food company to receive SBT net-zero certification. Lightweighting containers and packaging, utilizing recycled PET, agricultural biochar, and engaging suppliers—these are all moves to bring the upstream risk of raw materials, logistics, and energy under control.

Why invest 2 billion yen upstream?

The reason is simple: raw materials, logistics, and energy are the biggest risks for future cost increases. Tensions in the Middle East, the weak yen, rising labor costs, and soaring packaging material prices—these directly impact food prices.

In other words, major food companies are no longer fighting in an era where 'if you make a delicious new product, it will sell.'

Grow upward through pharmaceuticals and health, and solidify the foundation through decarbonization and supply chains. This two-front strategy is the true nature of the tectonic shifts currently occurring in the food industry.

❓ Chapter-end question (The Core)

I would like to pause here for a moment.

Food companies that changed our lives with convenience are now trying to profit from products that restore our health. I do not intend to criticize that. It is a natural strategy for a company.

However, we as consumers need to be aware.

Who is paying for your 'time-saving' later?

The cost of time-saving hasn't disappeared; it's just not being paid right now. The bill will arrive later in the form of health issues, household expenses, and children's eating habits. And companies have already prepared businesses to come and collect those bills.

Chapter 3: Conditions for 'Fully Embodying the Consumer'

3-1. What the SCM-background President Declared

In April 2026, Suntory Beverage & Food International changed its trade name to 'Suntory Beverage & Food' and appointed Mr. Josuke Kimura as the new president.

President Kimura's previous position was Head of the SCM (Supply Chain Management) Division and General Manager of the Supply Chain Headquarters at Suntory Holdings. While he has a career in marketing and sales, he is a person who has recently focused thoroughly on the world of raw materials, logistics, containers, and costs.

That new president put forward the phrase, 'An executive who fully embodies the consumer.'

The phrase 'fully embodying the consumer' itself sounds like a common marketing term. Being sensitive to trends, being enthusiastic about research, listening to the voices of consumers. If that were all, there would be nothing new about it.

However, when a top executive with an SCM background uses this phrase, the weight of its meaning changes.

'Fully embodying the consumer' is not about following trends.

What gets chosen at the store, what gets left over in a busy household, what gets dropped due to price, what doesn't get bought a second time because of children's preferences—it means looking at all of this from both product design and the supply chain.

3-2. Health consciousness dies at the 'storefront,' in 'busyness,' at 'price,' and with 'children'

Here lies the cold reality of the field.

No matter how wonderful the health products a company creates, there are four barriers before they reach the consumer's dining table.

First, storefront prices. In April 2026 alone, 609 processed food items saw price increases, and major instant noodle brands also implemented price hikes on about 170 items. Healthier options tend to be more expensive and are the first to be dropped in the face of household budget-saving trends.

Second, busyness. In households with children and dual-income parents, cooking time and cleanup time are prioritized as 'functions.' Even if a product is rich in healthy ingredients, if it takes 20 minutes to cook, it won't be chosen on a weekday night.

Third, other pressures on the household budget. The Bank of Japan kept its policy interest rate at 0.75% at its April 2026 monetary policy meeting, but the impact of the December 2025 rate hike has already been reflected in mortgage rates, with major banks' variable interest rates rising to 3.125%, the highest level in about 15 years. When housing, communication, and education costs are squeezed, food expenses are the first to be cut.

Fourth, children's preferences. This is hard to measure with numbers, but it is a decisive factor at the family dining table. Faced with the facts that 'the children won't eat it' or 'they end up preferring strongly flavored things,' nutritional balance is forced to take a backseat time and again.

'Fully embodying the consumer' means looking at all four of these barriers. It means weaving the entire magnetic field of the field—which cannot be seen in a laboratory or corporate boardroom—into the design of products and the supply chain.

Suntory has appointed a top executive from an SCM background, and Kirin is investing 2 billion yen in upstream decarbonization. Even though their superficial business areas differ, both companies' movements are aligned in terms of building a foundation to implement ideals in the field.

💡 Experience Slot ②: The moment my perception shifted

Honestly, when I first saw the interview headline 'An executive who fully embodies the consumer,' I thought it was just another trendy marketing term and brushed it off.

However, when I saw another piece of news on the same day in the Nikkei electronic edition titled 'Kirin HD to Invest 2 Billion Yen in Decarbonizing Supply Chain,' my perspective changed instantly.

These are not separate stories.

Suntory is reinterpreting the 'consumer front (the dining table)' from the perspective of SCM, while Kirin is securing the 'supply chain before the front (raw materials, logistics, packaging)' in the form of decarbonization. Two companies in the same food industry are moving to seize both the front line and the upstream simultaneously.

In other words, if you are serious about implementing the ideal of a health shift, product development alone is not enough. Mechanisms to be chosen at the store and mechanisms to stably secure raw materials in the first place are both necessary. April 30th was the day those two companies declared this through different routes.

It was here that I realized for the first time that the four news items fit into the same structural diagram.

Chapter 4: So, How Do We Prepare? — A Two-Pronged Approach and the Order of Reduction

4-1. (2) Preparation to Escape the Structure: Securing an 'Escape Route' Rather Than Zero Dependency

First, it is not realistic to eliminate ultra-processed foods entirely. It is physically impossible for many households, and if you try to force it, you won't be able to keep it up.

What you should do as preparation is to create an escape route so you don't rely on them completely.

Specifically, consciously keep 'low-processed foods that can be eaten immediately' in your home.

🥗 常備候補リスト（NOVA分類で言うグループ1〜2に近いもの）
─────────────────────────────
- バナナ
- 納豆
- 卵
- 冷凍ブロッコリー / 冷凍ほうれん草
- インスタント味噌汁（具の多いもの）
- パックご飯
- 鯖缶 / ツナ缶
- ヨーグルト（無糖プレーン）
- ナッツ（素焼き）
- カット野菜

The point is not to 'increase home cooking'.

It is the idea of 'placing a buffer before going straight to ultra-processed foods'.

On an exhausted night, before heating up a frozen pizza, first put bananas and natto on the table. Just by doing that, the composition of that day's meal changes quietly. Rather than aiming for perfection, consciously separating 'insurance for busy days' from 'the center of normal days' is more effective in the long run.

Managing frequency is also important. Is it every meal, a few times a week, or does it appear exceptionally as insurance for busy days? Just by being conscious of this, the structure of dependency changes.

4-2. (3) Preparation to Ride the Structure: Reading the Medical/Health Shift Through Information, Investment, and Career

Preparation by escaping alone is weak on the offensive side.

Suntory and Kirin are moving into medical OTC and health science, and the global functional food market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10.65% from 2026 to 2034. The domestic market for foods with functional claims is expected to reach a scale of approximately 777 billion yen in 2026.

There is a way to prepare by 'riding' this major trend across three layers: information, investment, and career.

📈 乗る備え：3つのレイヤー
─────────────────────────────
[情報] 食品大手の決算・中期経営計画・買収案件をフォロー
       注目キーワード：ヘルスサイエンス／機能性表示／免疫／
       睡眠／腸活／認知機能／医薬連携／個別化／Scope3

[投資] 食品大手の事業ポートフォリオ転換を読んだ銘柄選び
       医薬OTC・ヘルスケアETF・サプライチェーンETFの動き

[キャリア] 自社事業の隣接領域として「健康・予防・サプライチェーン」
          を意識する。営業・企画・調達・データ系の方は特に。

Buying stocks is not the only way to prepare. Just knowing 'how the food industry is moving right now' is effective when reading the job market or your own company's adjacent strategies.

4-3. The Order of Cutting Household Expenses: Do Not Make Food Costs the Final Adjustment Valve

And finally, a word on household finances.

This is surprisingly important and overlooked by many families.

When prices rise, mortgage interest rates climb, and disposable income is squeezed, people's first instinct is to cut 'food costs.' However, cutting food costs deepens reliance on ultra-processed foods that are cheap, fast, and filling. Ironically, the structure becomes one where you think you are saving money, but you are actually increasing the deferred costs to your health.

Therefore, the order of cutting expenses should be reversed.

🧭 削る順番（家計防衛の鉄則）
─────────────────────────────
1️⃣ 通信費（格安SIM・回線見直し）
2️⃣ サブスク（重複・休眠の整理）
3️⃣ 保険（不要な特約・重複保障の見直し）
4️⃣ 電力・ガス（プラン見直し・基本料）
5️⃣ 住宅ローン（借換え・条件交渉）
6️⃣ 車関連費（保険・整備・買い替えサイクル）
─────────────────────────────
🚫 食費（健康を直接削るので最後の最後）

Secure fixed costs first. This is not a money-saving technique, but rather preparation for health. Do not make the dining table your final adjustment valve. That is the supporting fire from the household side to prevent falling back into ultra-processed food dependency.

❓ A Question Before the Conclusion

Having read this far, you should be feeling something.

The tectonic shifts currently occurring in the Japanese food industry are moving in a direction that accelerates polarization. Those who have locked in housing costs with fixed interest rates and optimized their fixed expenses can access high-quality fresh foods and functional foods, and can also ride the wave of the medical and health shift.

Those who have not are having their disposable income eroded by the double punch of variable interest rates and rising prices, deepening their reliance on cheap ultra-processed foods.

Are you on the side that is escaping, the side that is riding the wave, or both?

There is no right answer. However, the moment you become conscious of where you stand, your preparation has already begun.

🔚 Summary

If I were to compress this story into three lines, it would look like this.

1. The problem of ultra-processed foods is structural, not health-related. The fact that 30-40% of Japanese energy intake depends on them is an inevitability of a time-poor society, and the logical arguments of research are hard to reach the already large demographic affected.

2. Major food companies have begun a two-front shift. Suntory is attacking with a 240 billion yen acquisition of OTC pharmaceuticals, while Kirin is defending with a 251.4 billion yen health science business plus 2 billion yen for upstream decarbonization. This is not a health boom, but a response to hitting a growth ceiling.

3. Individual preparation involves a two-pronged approach and the order of cutting expenses. Preparation for escaping (stocking up on ordinary foods + frequency management), preparation for riding the wave (information, investment, career), and cutting household expenses starting with fixed costs, leaving food costs for last.

There is no need to reduce ultra-processed foods to zero. Just do not live a life where that is your only choice. Preparation is not about endurance; it is about preserving options.

🎤 A Word from Zawa4

Convenience can remain just that—convenience.

But have you ever wondered if you, the one who should be choosing convenience, have somehow ended up on the side of being chosen by it?

Major beverage companies have started moving ahead of the research results and are already preparing their next business ventures. It is our turn to take notice.

#UltraProcessedFoods #NOVAClassification #Suntory #Kirin #HealthScience #FoodIndustry #Preparation #TimePoorSociety #HouseholdBudgetDefense #Zawa4Channel #note #Business #Economy #Health #RaisingChildren