[The Future of AI and Capitalism] Elon Musk's Prediction of the 'End of Labor' and How AI Labor Substitution is Changing the Structure of the World
Introduction: What you will learn from this article
I am sure you have heard the phrase 'AI will take our jobs' at least once.
However, many people probably think, 'That's just an exaggeration' or 'My job is safe.'
In reality, this is neither an exaggeration nor a story about the distant future.
Elon Musk, who leads Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI (an AI company), has publicly stated this prediction:
'By around 2030, AI will replace most labor. In the future, energy will become more important than labor costs.'
If this really happens, how will society change?
And, from a broader perspective, it might be an event that changes the very form of capitalism itself.
What you will learn in this article
Will AI really replace human labor? What the latest research shows
Why it is said that 'labor costs' will plummet as AI becomes widespread
The connection to the end of capitalism predicted by the 19th-century thinker Marx
What is the 'new power structure' that will emerge in the AI era?
The real reason why Elon Musk is obsessed with space exploration
How individuals should survive in the era of AI labor substitution
I will explain complex economic and philosophical topics as clearly as possible.
AI labor substitution is not a 'future story'
First, I want to confirm the fact that labor substitution by AI has already begun.
The idea that 'jobs will disappear by 2030' sounds like something from the distant future. But in reality, the change is already happening.
A famous report published by Oxford University researchers Frey and Osborne presents the following prediction.
'Approximately 47% of current jobs have the potential to be automated within the next 20 years.'
This study was published in 2013, but in the decade since, AI has evolved rapidly, making the prediction increasingly realistic.
Types of jobs AI excels at
AI is particularly good at 'jobs with rules.'
For example, the following types of jobs are already being replaced by AI.
Accounting and bookkeeping: Processing numbers, totaling, and preparing tax returns
Translation and writing: DeepL and ChatGPT are already at a practical level
Customer support: Automated responses via chatbots
Parts of programming: AI automatically writing code, such as GitHub Copilot
Data analysis: Tasks involving finding patterns in large amounts of data
Diagnostic imaging (medical): Cases where AI shows accuracy equal to or better than human doctors
These are not 'things that will happen in 10 years,' but jobs that are changing right now.
Types of jobs AI is not good at
On the other hand, there are jobs that AI is still not good at.
Responding to unpredictable situations (e.g., emergency medicine, disaster response)
Jobs requiring deep emotional connections with humans
Creativity, ideation, and thinking that reads structures
Complex movements using the body (robotics has not yet caught up)
In other words, while AI is good at 'jobs performed within fixed rules,' 'jobs that create the rules themselves' and 'jobs requiring emotions and relationships' are still areas where humans are stronger.
Elon Musk on the Future of AI and Work
Elon Musk has made several significant statements regarding the future of AI and work.
Among them, this particular quote is receiving significant attention.
"AI may become the most disruptive technology in human history. For better or for worse."
He has also spoken about the future of labor as follows:
"In the future, work may become a choice rather than an obligation. If AI handles most production activities, humans will gain the freedom to do what they love."
At first glance, this appears to be an ideal future.
However, a major problem is hidden here.
It is the question: **"How will people who have lost their jobs make a living?"**
Musk himself recognizes this issue and has stated that as a solution, a "Universal Basic Income (UBI)"—a system where the government guarantees a certain income for all citizens—might become necessary.
Why 'Labor Costs' Will Plummet as AI Becomes Widespread
This is the most important point in the discussion of AI labor substitution.
In society until now, the largest cost in every business has been **"labor costs."**
Whether running a factory, operating a company, or opening a shop, it was necessary to hire people. Hiring people incurs costs for salaries, insurance, and training.
But what will happen in a society where AI and robots do the work?
Is AI the 'Ideal Worker'?
Compared to human workers, AI has the following characteristics:
Does not demand a salary
Can work 24/7, 365 days a year
Does not require breaks or vacations
Fewer mistakes and consistent quality
No training costs for skill development
Not subject to labor laws
In short, for companies, AI becomes a "workforce with almost zero cost."
When this becomes widespread on a large scale, the overall "labor costs" of society will drop rapidly.
Energy becomes the new "capital"
Musk says the following:
"In the future, energy will be more important than labor costs."
What does this mean?
Running AI requires a massive amount of electricity. It is said that large-scale AIs like ChatGPT use as much electricity for a single conversation as it takes to keep a regular light bulb on for an hour.
In a society where AI is widespread,
Labor costs → approach almost zero
Energy (electricity) → becomes the biggest cost
Semiconductors and computing resources → become the target of competition
In other words, in future society, 'whoever holds the energy' may become the greatest power potential.
This is deeply connected to why Musk is simultaneously advancing Tesla (electric vehicles and solar power generation) and SpaceX (space development).
The 'End of Capitalism' predicted by Marx
Here, I will talk about the 19th-century thinker Karl Marx.
Marx wrote 'Das Kapital' in 1867 and analyzed the structure of capitalism as follows:
"Capitalism is built on the conflict between capitalists (those who own money and equipment) and workers (those who work). Capitalists use workers to maximize profits, and workers live by selling their own labor power."
This can be represented in a diagram as follows.
資本家（機械・工場・資金を持つ）
↓ 利益を搾取
労働者（自分の時間・体を売る）Marx predicted that this conflict structure would create contradictions and that capitalism would eventually collapse.
What happens when AI emerges?
So, how would this structure change if AI were to replace labor?
AI・ロボット（労働を行う）
↓
資本家（AIを所有している人）
↓ 利益を独占
労働者（仕事がなくなる）→ どこへ行く？The very concept of the 'worker' may disappear.
The 'end of capitalism' that Marx predicted was thought to come about through a workers' revolution. But in reality, it might arrive in a completely different form, where labor itself becomes unnecessary due to AI.
It might be more accurate to call this a 'transformation' rather than the 'end' of capitalism. However, in the sense that the structure of society will change fundamentally, the essence is the same as Marx's prediction.
What is the 'new power structure' of the AI era?
Just because labor disappears does not mean that exploitation or inequality will vanish.
Rather, the power structure may shift into a different form.
In capitalism until now, the power structure was as follows:
Those who own land hold power (agricultural society)
Those who own factories and machines hold power (after the Industrial Revolution)
Those who own capital and finance hold power (modern capitalism)
And in the AI era, the source of power will change once again.
The 'sources of power' in the AI era:
Data: Massive amounts of data to train AI
Energy: Electricity and computing resources to run AI
Semiconductors: Chips that serve as the 'brain' of AI
Platforms: AI services used by many people
Space: The Next Resource Frontier
The companies and nations that control these will become the 'capitalists' of the new era.
Currently, those closest to that position are Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and the companies led by Elon Musk, such as Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.
Why Space Development is the 'Expansion of Capitalism'
The 'Mars colonization' that Musk is aiming for with SpaceX. Is this merely a romantic notion?
From a historical perspective, this is a highly rational strategy.
Throughout history, capitalism has continued to expand by finding 'new frontiers'.
15〜16世紀：ヨーロッパが新大陸（アメリカ大陸）を「発見」
↓
植民地化・資源の搾取・市場の拡大
↓
17〜18世紀：アジア・アフリカへの進出
↓
さらなる資源・労働力・市場の獲得
↓
19〜20世紀：地球全体の市場化が完了And in the 21st century, there are almost no 'new frontiers' left on Earth.
That is precisely why the next frontier is space.
It is said that Mars has vast amounts of resources. Outer space is rich in solar energy. Asteroids are also said to contain deposits of rare metals.
In other words, space development is not a 'dream project,' but can be seen as an extension of the expansion strategy of capitalism.
Just as Marx said that 'capitalism prolongs its life by expanding the objects it exploits,' humanity may be trying to expand the targets of exploitation and development from Earth to space.
Will 'Capitalism End'?
I believe many people searching for 'the future of AI and capitalism' are concerned with the question, 'Will capitalism end?'
To conclude, it is more accurate to say that capitalism will 'undergo a major transformation' rather than 'end.'
Three Scenarios for the Transformation of Capitalism
Scenario 1: AI Capitalism (An extension of the present)
Giant corporations possessing AI, data, and energy dominate the world, and the wealth gap widens further. The difference between the 'haves' and the 'have-nots' becomes even greater than it is now.
Scenario 2: Basic Income Society
Because AI handles most production, the government distributes basic living expenses to all citizens. People no longer need to 'work to survive' and it becomes a society where they 'do what they want for themselves.' Musk also partially supports this scenario.
Scenario 3: A New Value Economy
It will be a society where 'human relationships,' 'trust,' and 'creativity' hold more value than money or material goods. Precisely because AI can generate massive amounts of information, human-like qualities and authentic connections will become scarce and valuable.
It is unclear which scenario will become reality. However, many researchers and thinkers believe that in any case, the possibility that 'the same capitalism as today will continue as is' is low.
The 'Thinking Characteristics' of People Who Will Survive in the AI Era
So, what should individuals do amidst such major changes?
A time is coming when we will leave what AI is good at to AI. At that point, those who can provide value unique to humans will survive.
Skills That Will Increase in Value in the AI Era
1. The ability to read structures
In an era overflowing with information, the ability to think about 'why things happen' and 'what lies beyond these changes.' AI processes information, but gaining insight into structures remains a human strength.
2. The ability to build trust
Precisely because AI can generate vast amounts of content, emotional connections—the feeling that 'this person's words are trustworthy'—will hold scarcity value. Trust between humans cannot be replaced by AI.
3. The ability to ask questions
AI is good at 'providing answers,' but humans must decide 'what questions should be asked.' The ability to think about 'what should be solved' is crucial.
4. The ability to adapt to change
In an era where social rules change, 'yesterday's correct answer' can become 'today's incorrect answer.' Those who do not fear change and can continue to learn will have the advantage.
SNS and Business Are Also Determined by 'Structural Understanding'
Let's talk about something a bit more relatable.
Some may feel that the changes of the AI era are 'too big a topic.' However, this is directly connected to daily business and side hustles.
For example, for those trying to start a side hustle on social media.
AI can generate massive amounts of information → The scarcity value of information decreases
The value of human-like trust and relationships will increase → Communities will become important
Only those who understand the structure will survive → Understanding the essence is more important than techniques
This is precisely how changes in the AI era are altering business common sense.
Macro (society as a whole) changes and micro (individual business) changes are connected by the same structure.
Summary: AI Labor Substitution and the Future of Capitalism
Let's summarize what was covered in this article.
AI will truly substitute labor
Research from the University of Oxford points out that approximately 47% of jobs have the potential to be automated. The change has already begun.
The future predicted by Elon Musk
By around 2030, AI will substitute much of human labor, and in the future, energy will become more important to society than labor costs. Universal Basic Income may become necessary.
The relationship with Marx's prophecy
Capitalism is built on the conflict structure of 'Capital vs. Labor,' but as AI substitutes labor, that very conflict structure may disappear. This is not the 'end' of capitalism, but a 'transformation'.
The new power structure of the AI era
Companies and nations that possess data, energy, semiconductors, and platforms will hold new power. Space exploration may become the next frontier of capitalism.
What individuals should value
The ability to read structures, build trust, formulate questions, and adapt to change. In an era where AI can generate massive amounts of information, human-ness and thinking ability hold value.
There is no need to feel anxious about the future.
What is important is to correctly understand the changes.
When the rules of society change, those who understand the change in rules can ride the new rules.
Those who do not understand will continue to struggle with the old rules and find themselves left behind before they know it.
If you can understand the structure, you can find your place in any era.
The AI era may not be a scary time, but rather the era with the greatest opportunities for those who have the power to think.
A place to learn more deeply about 'structural understanding' in the AI era
I am creating a place where we can talk more deeply and concretely about the 'future of AI and capitalism,' 'the power to read structures,' and 'how to work in the AI era' that I covered in this article.
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