Is 2030 💸Explosive Profits💸 Possible? ─ A World Where SoFiUSD Becomes a 💰Money Tree💰🚀
This time, it's just a discussion of possibilities, so please take it with a grain of salt😎
With the growth of the stablecoin market, SoFi could become incredibly profitable🎯
Yes, unbelievably so🤣
◆Market Assumptions
2030 Stablecoin Market Size (Outstanding Balance): $2 Trillion
Market Share: 25% (SoFiUSD Outstanding Balance $500 Billion)
Policy Interest Rate: 2%
◆Market Classification
・Crypto Assets: 40%
・B2B Payments (Inter-company transfers, trade settlements, etc.): 20%
・Tokenization Market (Tokenization of government bonds, MMFs, corporate bonds, loans, stocks, etc.): 20%
・B2C Payments (International remittances, retail payments, payroll, etc.): 10%
・Store of Value/Other: 10%
◆Main Competitors
・USDT/USDC
◆SoFiUSD's Unique Value
・Access to FRB Master Accountminimizing settlement risk
◆Market/Competitor Outlook
・Major issuers will consolidate to about 10 companieswith SoFiUSD being one of the top players
・The crypto asset market will still be influenced by USDT/USDC, which have elements of a base currency
・SoFiUSD will be stronger in the B2B and tokenization markets
(as these markets highly value the benefit of extremely low settlement risk)
・B2C market adoption will be slightly slower because existing payment methods are already well-established
◆Revenue Model
1. Investment income from underlying assets (reserves) *Assuming a 50/50 split with distribution partners
2. Settlement fees and related revenue
3. Float revenue(Investment income generated from time lags in settlement and clearing)
－Revenue Calculation 1: Investment Income
$500 Billion x 2% Interest Rate x 50% x 90% Profit Margin = $4.5 Billion
*50% assumes a 50/50 split of the 2% interest income with partners
*For the reasoning behind the 90% profit margin, please refer tomy previous blog.
－Revenue Calculation 2: Settlement Fees and Related Revenue
$500 Billion x 50x Velocity x 0.05% Fee x 50% Operating Margin = $6.25 Billion
*50x Velocity: Means that $1 of issued SoFiUSD is used 50 times/year.A Citi reportassumes 50 times/year, so I adopted this figure
*The 0.05% fee is set at half of the 0.1% fee rate of Visa/Mastercard
*Regarding the operating margin, based onVisa's low 60% range and Mastercard's high 50% range, I assumed around 50%
－Revenue Calculation 3: Float Revenue
$500 billion × Velocity 50x × 1/365 × Interest Rate 2% × 50% × Profit Margin 90% = $620 million
*1/365 is the annualized coefficient assuming an average holding period of 1 day
*Velocity, 50%, and 90% profit margin are the same as in Revenue Calculations 1 & 2
📌Final Profit: ($4.5 billion + $6.25 billion + $0.62 billion) × Tax Rate (1-25%) = $8.5 billion
*Approximately 18 times SoFi's full-year 2025 final profit of $480 million
*The 2030 profit from traditional business will be added to this
*Since the basic calculation method is as described above, if there are parts you wish to change, please modify the corresponding numbers and run the simulation.
It may look like an astronomical figure, but even so,it still does not reach the final profits of Visa/Mastercard, which are approximately $20 billion and $15 billion respectively.
Chainalysis predicts that by around 2032,“merchant payment networks utilizing stablecoins could reach a scale comparable to Visa”, so it would not be surprising if a Visa-class company were to emerge from stablecoin payments.
Furthermore, even if the outstanding balance of stablecoins reaches $2 trillion in 2030, with a velocity of 50x and an annual payment volume of $100 trillion, that is not the end goal.
When including crypto asset trading, B2B payments, tokenized markets, and B2C markets targeted by stablecoins,the market becomes broader than the one targeted by Visa/Mastercard, potentially reaching a scale of several quadrillion dollars.
In other words, $100 trillion is just the beginning, and the potential market SoFi is targeting is extremely large. Naturally, there are high expectations for the future potential of SoFiUSD.
In addition,
✅SoFi is the “only” company that holds a commercial banking license and
✅issues a public-type stablecoin, and
✅there are currently no other issuers with a similar structure
, which I would like to emphasize once again.
CEO Anthony Noto has stated that the outstanding balance could reach $5 billion by the end of 2026.It might have been a bullish statement, but what will the outcome be?🚀🚀🚀
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