Can SoFi Join the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100? Predicting Eligibility and Timing (Part 1)

After the market close on Friday, September 5, 2025, it was announced that AppLovin (APP) and Robinhood (HOOD) would be newly added to the S&P 500. On the next business day, Monday, September 8, both stocks surged by over 10%. If SoFi is also added to the S&P 500 in the future, similar buying demand is likely to occur, potentially acting as a catalyst for a short-term stock price increase.

Joining a major market index is a "mark of growth and credibility" and simultaneously generates buying demand from index funds. It leads to improved stock price stability and brand recognition, making it an event that has a significant impact on investor sentiment.
So, will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ-100? Let's organize the criteria for inclusion in each index and consider SoFi's current position and future outlook.

To give the conclusion first, it would not be surprising if SoFi were added to the S&P 500 immediately (the next regular rebalancing is in December 2025). Inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 would require a change in its revenue structure, so it cannot be expected for the time being.

<Criteria for S&P 500 Inclusion>
The main criteria for S&P 500 inclusion at this time are as follows.*Strict definitions are omitted; only the key points are listed.

[Must be a U.S. Company]
Condition: A company headquartered in the U.S. and listed on a U.S. exchange
Result: SoFi is headquartered in San Francisco and listed on the NASDAQ →"Cleared! 🌉🚀"

[Market Capitalization]
Condition: Total company market capitalization of approximately $23 billion or more
Current Status: As of September 19, 2025,SoFi's market capitalization is approximately $35 billion. It significantly exceeds the criteria. → "Cleared! 🌉🚀"

[Liquidity]
Condition:
・Float ratio of 50% or more
・Trading volume of 250,000 shares or more per month for the last 6 months
・Annual dollar value traded / float-adjusted market capitalization = 1.0 or more
Current Status
・SoFi's float ratio is nearly 100% → "Cleared! 🌉🚀"
*The "float ratio" refers to the percentage of shares that are likely to be traded in the market, excluding shares held long-term by management or major shareholders that have trading restrictions.
・Average trading volume is approximately 72 million shares/day →"Cleared! 🌉🚀"
・Based on current average daily trading volume and a stock price level of around $30,Annual dollar value traded is over $500 billion. Float-adjusted market capitalization = approximately the current market capitalization (about $35 billion)→ "Cleared! 🌉🚀"

[Financial Viability]
Condition: The sum of net income over the most recent four quarters must be positive, and the most recent quarter must also be profitable.
Current Status:SoFi has been GAAP-profitable for 7 consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 → "Cleared! 🌉🚀"

SoFi has cleared all the criteria for S&P 500 inclusion, and what remains is the "final decision by the committee."However, it is not a case of "immediate inclusion upon meeting criteria," as the industry balance of the entire index is also considered. Furthermore, because the system maintains exactly 500 stocks, for a new company to enter, an existing company must be removed due to M&A, poor performance, or other reasons.

<Estimated Inclusion Timing>
S&P 500 rebalancing occurs quarterly (March, June, September, and December), and ad-hoc inclusions are announced in the event of M&A or delisting. Since SoFi has cleared all the primary criteria, it would not be surprising if it were included in the S&P 500 during the next scheduled rebalancing in December 2025. It will likely be included in the S&P 500 by next year at the latest.

Furthermore, index inclusion generates mechanical buying demand. Assets benchmarked to the S&P 500 are estimated to be in the range of $15 to $20 trillion, with passive management (approximately $7 to $10 trillion) responsible for the actual mechanical buying. Multiplying this by SoFi's theoretical weight (around 0.05%), it is calculated that at least several billion to $5 billion in capital inflows will occur, which is highly likely to be a tailwind for the stock price from a supply and demand perspective.

Next time, we will explore the possibility of inclusion in the NASDAQ-100.

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