A Complete Verification of SoFi's Loan Business Performance [2025 Full-Year Results Part 5]

Continuing from Part 4.
*The meaning of the stars is as explained in the first part (★★★: Essential, ★★: Supplementary, ★: Reference).

While we cannot paint an optimistic scenario at this moment for the 2026 revenue projections for the Technology Platform business presented the other day, strong growth signals have been confirmed in the loan business. This time, we will verify its revenue trends based on various data related to the loan business.

According to company guidance, the loan business in 2026 is expected to grow by approximately +23% year-over-year. Upon examining various data, this figure is fully achievable, and there is even room for an upside. Detailed calculations are scheduled to be released at a later date.

🚨Key points of this Part🚨
・Loan revenue re-accelerated at +23.5% (+10.7% the previous year)
・Loan origination volume surged → The "source" of future revenue is expanding
・All loans showed significant positive growth year-over-year
・Delinquency rates remain low and stable (extremely high customer quality)
・NIM is a high-profit structure significantly exceeding the bank average

🔔Conclusion: The +23% guidance is likely conservative

Below, we will confirm the basis for this with data.

1. Positioning of the loan business at SoFi (★★ )
The loan business is the backbone supporting SoFi, accounting for 48% of revenue and 52% of contribution profit. Therefore, it is important to accurately grasp the growth potential of this business when forecasting SoFi's performance trends.

2. Revenue, year-over-year growth, contribution profit, and contribution margin in the loan business (★★)
Revenue for the loan business in 2025 was $1.827 billion, a +23.5% increase year-over-year, re-accelerating from the previous year's +10.7%.

3. Loan origination volume (★★)
Loan origination volume is the most important leading indicator for the loan business. If it increases, not only will future interest income grow, but non-interest income such as loan sale gains, securitization fees, and origination fees will also expand simultaneously. Furthermore, the Loan Platform Business (LPB) is also a model that starts with loan origination, and an increase in origination volume directly boosts LPB revenue.

In other words, the expansion of loan origination volume means the expansion of the entire revenue source. In that respect, the fact that current loan origination volume is showing strong growth is a factor that brightens the outlook for future performance.

4. Loan Origination Volume Year-over-Year (★★)
All loan types are showing strong growth compared to the previous year.In my article at the beginning of the year I indicated the demand trends for each loan type, and my basic understanding remains unchanged. I expect strong growth to continue in 2026.

Furthermore, in the Q4 2025 earnings call, it was revealed that in addition to personal loans, the use of the Loan Platform Business (LPB) has also begun for home loans. There is potential for further expansion in home loans going forward.

5. Loan Origination Volume Mix (★★)
The proportion of personal loans is overwhelmingly high, serving as the core of the revenue structure.

6. Loan Contract Count Breakdown Trends (★★)
Along with the increase in loan origination volume, the number of contracts is also showing steady trends. Approximately 90% of SoFi members who hold home loans use loans from other companies, meaning the demand for refinancing is extremely high, and cross-selling expansion is also fully expected.

7. Loan Contract Count Year-over-Year (★★)
Because the absolute numbers are small, the impact on the total is still minor, but the growth in home loans is notable.

8. Loan Contract Count Mix (★★)

9. Loan Balance Trends (★★)
The loan balance, which serves as the foundation for generating interest income, is also expanding rapidly.

10. Loan Balance Year-over-Year (★★)
The year-over-year loan balance also shows steady growth across the board. Generally, contract amounts are larger in the order of Personal Loans < Student Loans < Home Loans. Therefore, if the home loan ratio increases, the total balance will be even easier to expand.

11. Loan Balance Mix (★★)

12. Loan Business Interest Income and Non-Interest Income Trends (★★)
Proportional to the steady growth in loan balances, interest income is trending upward in a clean line.

13. Loan Business Interest Income and Non-Interest Income Mix (★)

14. Personal Loan and Student Loan Delinquency Rates (★★)
There are many high-quality customers, and the delinquency rate for loans over 90 days remains low and stable. Although the delinquency rate for personal loans has risen from 0.43% to 0.52%, the absolute level is low, and since it remains at a low level in the long-term trend, I do not view it as a cause for concern.

15. Personal Loan and Student Loan Credit Scores (★)
The average annual income of customers borrowing loans from SoFi is $158,000 for personal loans and $149,000 for student loans.The average annual income of Americans is $67,920. 90% of people have an income of $125,720 or less, so SoFi borrowers are in the high-income bracket, falling into the 'top 10%'.

The average FICO score is also 746 for personal loans and 765 for student loans, which is also extremely excellent. Considering that there are such high-quality customers, it is thought that they would not be significantly affected in the event of a mild recession.

16. NIM (Net Interest Margin) Trends (★★)
NIM: An indicator showing how efficiently a bank earns its interest margin. It is calculated by subtracting interest expenses, such as those on deposits, from interest income, such as from loans, and dividing by interest-earning assets. SoFi's NIM maintains a level significantly higher than the banking industry average.

17. Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (★★)
The loan-to-deposit ratio is calculated as loan balance divided by deposit balance.The decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio to approximately 90% indicates that deposit growth is outpacing lending, which is asignal indicating both growth potential and financial health, suggesting room for future loan expansion and lower funding costs.

■ Summary
From this verification, we have confirmed that SoFi's loan business maintains high standards across
・Revenue growth
・Loan expansion
・Creditworthiness
・Profitability
all at once.

What is particularly important is thatthe surge in loan originations signifies the accumulation of future earnings. This is not just current strength, but aleading indicator showing room for future performance growth.

Therefore,the company's guidance of +23% growth is fully achievable and is likely even conservative.

In the next installment, Part 6, we will focus on the Financial Services segment, another growth engine, and verify the realism of the +40% growth guidance based on data.

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