Radio NIKKEI Market Terrace Commentary
▶ Broadcast (radiko time-free): https://radiko.jp/#!/ts/RN1/20260716123000
July 16, 2026
Overview
The Tokyo stock market on July 16 saw the Nikkei Stock Average fall back for the first time in three trading days, weighed down by a sharp decline in semiconductor-related stocks. During the morning session, the index fell as low as 66,499 yen, down 2,252 yen, and closed at 66,835.54 yen, down 1,915.97 yen. The TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) ended the day down 59.33 points at 4,028.79 points.
Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Index were firm in the U.S. market the previous day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2%. In addition, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) plunged by as much as 7%, and the decline in semiconductor memory stocks such as SK Hynix spread to memory-related stocks in the Tokyo market. On the other hand, despite the decline in the indices, there were periods where the number of advancing stocks exceeded the number of declining stocks, and the TOPIX decline rate remained in the 1% range, making it a day with a very different landscape for the Nikkei Average and the TOPIX.
In terms of sector rotation, while semiconductor-related stocks were generally sold off, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, pulp and paper, retail, and steel stocks bucked the trend and rose. There was renewed buying in sectors and stocks that had been lagging behind, such as land transportation, automobiles, finance, Shiseido, and Asics. Trading value was 9.5636 trillion yen, falling below the 10 trillion yen mark for the second consecutive day.
Morning Session/Index Movements
The Nikkei Average started the morning session with a significant decline, recording a low of 66,499.49 yen at 11:06 AM. The decline reached 2,252 yen at one point. The top negative contributors were high-priced semiconductor and high-tech stocks such as Advantest ($6857), Tokyo Electron ($8035), SoftBank Group ($9984), and Kioxia Holdings ($285A).
While the Nikkei Average's decline rate was 2.5% at one point, the TOPIX's decline rate remained below 1%. The top stocks by trading value were Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden ($6976), Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, and Advantest, all semiconductor-related, with only Taiyo Yuden among the top performers showing a positive result.
Overseas/Asian Markets
In the Asian market, the KOSPI in South Korea plunged by as much as 7%. SK Hynix fell sharply, dragging down the index along with Samsung Electronics. It was also reported that authorities in South Korea plan to strengthen trading regulations, citing that leveraged ETFs that double the price movements of these large semiconductor stocks are amplifying the volatility of the underlying assets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%.
After the market closed, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) announced its financial results for the April-June quarter, with net profit up 77% and revenue up 36% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and setting new record highs for a quarter. The full-year revenue forecast was raised to a 40% increase year-on-year, and capital expenditure was raised to $60-64 billion (approximately 9.9 trillion yen, calculated at 1 dollar = 162.15 yen). However, the reaction in the Tokyo market was limited, and stocks like Tokyo Electron remained in an adjustment phase even after the earnings announcement.
Currency/Commodities
The dollar-yen pair traded in the low 162 yen range, and the euro-yen pair in the high 185 yen range, with both remaining almost flat in the afternoon. The domestic long-term interest rate was 2.690%. In commodities, domestic gold futures closed at 21,492 yen, up 6 yen per gram, and Tokyo crude oil futures closed at 76,850 yen, down 100 yen per kiloliter.
Individual Stock Movements
Amid the notable decline in semiconductor-related stocks, Kioxia fell significantly by 15% to 62,890 yen. This represents an adjustment of about 45% from its June high, and the liquidation of long positions in margin trading was also a factor. Stocks with the largest declines included Gloving, Vector, Samco ($6624), and Ibiden ($4062).
On the other hand, there were many stocks that bucked the trend and rose. Saizeriya ($7581) hit the daily limit high on expectations of a price increase suggested at the earnings press conference, in addition to good financial results. Shiseido ($4911) rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, recovering to the 3,000 yen level; Asics ($7936) rebounded; and Nippon Steel ($5401) rose for the fourth consecutive day. In land transportation, Fujikyu Corporation ($9010) hit a year-to-date high, and Tokyo Metro ($9023), Nippon Express Holdings ($9147), and Daiwa Securities Group ($9064) also showed signs of bottoming out and recovering. In physical AI-related stocks, YE Digital ($3479) was quoted higher on news of its collaboration with NVIDIA, and entertainment and content-related stocks such as Sony Group ($6758), Sanrio ($8136), and Nintendo ($6974) also showed signs of recovery.
Main News
It was reported that the government and the Liberal Democratic Party plan to raise the requirements for requesting the convocation of an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders from the current 3% or more of voting rights to about 5% or more. The aim is to prevent excessive interference by activist shareholders by also placing restrictions on the content of shareholder proposals, and the plan is to submit a bill to amend the Companies Act to the ordinary Diet session to be convened as early as next January.
In addition, NVIDIA announced that it would expand its partnership with Toyota Motor ($7203) and its subsidiary Woven by Toyota in the field of physical AI, including the development of Woven City, a demonstration city in Susono City, Shizuoka Prefecture. It was also reported that failures occurred in credit card-related systems at JR East and the Tokaido Shinkansen.
Commentator Perspectives
First-half commentator Hideki Wajima expressed the view that while the Nikkei Stock Average is in a correction phase, the TOPIX and the number of advancing stocks remain firm, noting that one should be aware that the market landscape differs depending on which index is viewed (for details, please listen to the main program from 31:16 to 34:35).
Regarding the futures market, Hirozumi Kobayashi of Diamond Financial Research, based on trading trends by investor category and option open interest, indicated that while the main scenario for the time being is a continuation of the current range, one should be cautious of downward thrusts (for details, please listen to the main program from 34:35 to 42:41).
On the technical side, Koichi Nosaka of Mito Securities stated that the relative relationship between the trends of the Nikkei Stock Average and the TOPIX is changing, and indicated a stance of focusing on lagging sectors such as land transportation, pulp and paper, and steel, as well as bottoming-out stocks like Shiseido, Asics, and Nippon Steel (for details, please listen to the main program from 46:28 to 57:39).
Takuro Hayashi of IwaiCosmo Securities assessed that the correction in semiconductors has progressed significantly in terms of price range and that the overall market sentiment is not bad, expressing the view that value stocks and high-dividend stocks will be favored for selection from July to September (for details, please listen to the main program from 1:36:01 to 1:39:41).
Second-half commentator Hideaki Sakurai pointed out the high margin buying ratio of memory-related stocks and indicated that the market should be viewed from a supply-demand perspective. Together with Akio Masaki, he also touched on the decline in trading volume, maintaining the position that the market is currently in a summer lull/wait-and-see phase (for details, please listen to the main program from 2:00:47 to 2:07:40 and 2:55:15 to 3:07:37).
Stock Battle
As stocks to watch for next week, Akio Masaki named M3 ($2413). Hideaki Sakurai chose Creek & River Co., Ltd. ($4763) and Moresco ($5018).
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