# 7 (Chapter 5 of the Main Story) My Leveraged Nasdaq-100 TQQQ Simulation Model with Biased Probabilities: A Mathematical Formula to Replicate a Chain of Biased Luck, Coincidence, and the Future
◯ A Chain of Biased Luck and Coincidence
I want to believe that human society is driven by a "die biased slightly toward good luck."
Because today, too, we worked, held our ground, and moved forward.
That effort must have tipped the scales of probability just a little bit.
But—tomorrow will be different again.
I might make a mistake and feel down, or
there are days when unreasonable emails wear me down.
Even if you roll a rigged die, you don't get the desired number every time.
That is the true nature of "bad luck."
But—what if good luck continues?
Once, and you're a little happy.
Twice, and confidence begins to sprout.
Three times, and it feels like the world is on your side.
Conversely, if bad luck continues,
your heart grows heavy and your vision darkens.
Yes, life is a dice game.
However, it is a "biased die."
Both good luck and bad luck are coincidences.
But when those coincidences chain together,
the direction of life slowly changes.
Just as a lottery has tiers,
luck also has hierarchies.
A "slightly good day" and a "life-changing day" must have different impacts on the future.
The keys to shaping the future are surely these three.
⭐︎ [Bias of Good/Bad Luck]
⭐︎ [Chain of Coincidence]
⭐︎ [Qualitative Hierarchy of Luck]
When these pile up, we realize.
Behind the market, and behind life itself,
the die has already begun to roll.
The future is quietly walking toward us.
◯ A Mathematical Formula to Replicate the Future
――The future is not darkness, but "probability with direction"――
I used to think that knowing the future was something out of a Doraemon gadget.
But one day, I scribbled a very simple formula on the edge of my notebook.
Future = [Now] × [Bias of Good/Bad Luck] × [Chain of Coincidence]
× [Qualitative Hierarchy of Luck]
At first glance, it looks like elementary school math.
But this formula stuck in my mind.
Why multiplication instead of addition?
──The answer is simple.
Because I like the term "synergy."
……No, there is a serious reason, too.
With addition,
even if there is good luck, a day with a lot of bad luck becomes a world that "doesn't change that much."
But reality is different.
On a lucky day, the flow changes all at once, and
if bad luck continues, the scenery suddenly turns dark.
Both life and the market
move significantly based on "slight bias of luck × chain of luck × quality of luck."That's why I used multiplication.
(*And to be honest, multiplication sounds cooler and has more dreams.)
If the future were completely random,
life would be no different from a coin toss.
Just walking through the darkness.
But this formula has "Now."
The future does not start from the past, but always from "now."
No matter how many times you stumble,
"now" becomes the starting point for a restart.
And this formula has "direction."
Even if bad luck continues,
if the probability is tilted even slightly toward good luck, the future will slowly move forward.
Coincidence is not isolated.
One event calls the next,
and that becomes a "chain."
And "quality" is layered onto that.
A moment you'd want to call a Big Event
can rewrite the statistics of ordinary days.
Now, bias, chain, quality.
When these overlap,
the future changes from a "dark fog"
into a "forest of probability with a clear view."
However,
when stepping into the "forest of probability," if we let go of the resolve to constantly question ourselves, we might lose our way in the darkness again.
This mathematical formula is simple and inorganic.
It offers no comfort, no guidance, and no answers.
The calculation result is just inorganic numbers.
Whether to explore their meaning and take responsibility for them is left to each of us.
(Postscript)
This article is not intended to recommend specific financial products or provide investment advice.