#1 (First Half of Prologue) Probability Bias and Drifting Time
◯Money is Time
-Time does not disappear; it is converted into the future
Time is Money.
Everyone knows this.
But perhaps we have lost sight of the reverse.
Money is Time.
Investing is not a game of courage, but an engineering discipline for managing time.
A crash in investment assets is not just a drop in price.
From my perspective observing TQQQ, it is different.
A crash is the extension of the time required to reach the future.
Loss is a debt of time.
Recovery is the repayment of time.
When assets increase, time is compressed.
When assets decrease, time is expanded.
Time does not disappear.
It is simply converted into another form: the future.
Why have people spoken of Time is Money while never discussing Money is Time?
There is only one reason.
Time has no form.
People fear what has no form.
Time seems to vanish while remaining invisible. That is why we have unconsciously looked away.
But in reality, it is different.
Time has not disappeared at all.
It has merely been converted into another form called money.
/
Along with a resounding singing voice
And then, music plays quietly.
Who knows where the time goes…
― Sandy Denny (1968)
The eternal question sung by Sandy Denny.
When gazing at the sea called time, the terrain of probability that we have built emerges.
It is not a coincidence.
It is still too early to call it inevitable.
In the space that spreads between them, we possess special, **rigged dice (BES³) and a formula to glimpse the future (MSM³)**.
Dice that humans have subtly rigged to advance civilization.
The bias nurtured by society. The history of humans betting on the future.
We will draw that probability map together from here on.
⸻
◯Respect for existing financial theory and quiet resistance
Black-Scholes.
Geometric Brownian motion.
Stochastic differential equations.
The mathematical formulas polished by great minds are all beautiful.
However, even though that beauty is close enough to touch, it is still beyond my reach.
Like a jewel shining behind glass,
even though it is right there,
I feel as though I cannot even sense its texture.
That may simply be due to my lack of study.
But that is precisely why I want to walk.
On my own two feet, toward what lies beyond.
⸻
◯The Don Quixote of the Reiwa era appears
I head toward the giant tower of financial mathematics, carrying only what appear to be crude arithmetic operations and dice with a subtle bias.
Holding ambiguity and fluctuation, fear and hope, all in the same palm.
The world will likely laugh.
Saying, 'Modeling the bias of civilization with math? That's ridiculous.'
Even so, I will proceed.
There is only one watchword.
Measurable, Finite, Countable
Even in a mountain of fog,
first measure the contours,
and count what can be counted.
That is my way of fighting.
⸻
◯Let's go. To the world of civilization probability
Time is not lost.
It is converted into the future.
Investing is not fear, but
a technique for designing the resource called time.
With rigged dice in hand,
let's go explore the probability distorted by civilization.
Welcome.
To the world of Money is Time.
From here,
the journey of the Don Quixote of the Reiwa era begins.
(Postscript)
Time is troublesome.
One year is 12 months,
also 52 weeks + 1 day,
and also 365 days.
One day is 24 hours = 1,440 minutes.
One hour is 60 minutes, one minute is 60 seconds.
Despite this,
how many hours are in 8 years, 7 months, 19 weeks, and 3 days?
Unless you borrow the inspiration of the genius Ramanujan, the answer does not come immediately.
——Time is a more restrictive unit than I thought.
So, I decided to treat time more simply.
I measure it not by 'time' but by 'number of steps (count)'.
Every time the dice called price movement are thrown, the future appears one step at a time.
In that case,
let's advance the time of the financial market not by calendars or clocks, but by the 'number of times the dice are rolled'.
Every time the dice of price movement are rolled, we take one step toward the future.
And if we roll the dice once a week, it means we roll the dice 52 times a year.
This is wisdom for us to return to the human calendar for a moment.
The calendar is time created by humans for society.
The financial market lives by the time marked by price movements.
Therefore, in my model, I have decided to set aside milestones like quarterly earnings and year-end for now.
The time handled within mathematical formulas can be simpler.
Not 'how many days have passed on the calendar,' but
'how many times has the future been selected?'
Even if we simplify time,
the window through which we observe the financial market does not fog up.
On the contrary, I think it becomes transparent.