What are AGMG, SSI, SAI, and EV? A summary guide to the indices and terms used in withkeiba
"What is SSI?"
"Is EV expected value?"
"What's the benefit of a high SAI?"
In withkeiba articles, many unique indices and terms appear that are not found in standard horse racing newspapers.
If you are reading for the first time, you might feel it looks difficult.
But please rest assured.
Actually, there are only a few indices you need to remember at first.
In this article, we have summarized "how to read AGMG" to make it easier to understand before reading withkeiba articles.
What is AGMG?
AGMG is a unique analysis system for analyzing not just "which horse is strong," but also "whether that ability can be utilized in this specific race.".
Even among horses with the same high ability,
horses that run well in a slow pace
horses that demonstrate their power in a high pace
horses that increase their rating in races where positioning is important
are all different.
In AGMG,
Ability × Race Structure × Market Evaluation
we analyze races by combining these three factors.
The 4 indices you should learn first
You don't need to memorize them all.
To start, you can read the articles sufficiently if you just understand these four.
SSI (Structure Scenario Index)
Structure Scenario Index
This is an index that quantifies the "race pattern" most likely to occur in that race.
For example,
L3 Acceleration Structure 91
means,
"There is a high probability that the race will unfold with a sudden acceleration from the L3 (the final 600m or so)."
That is what it means.
In other words, SSI is,
an index that analyzes the race itself, not the strength of the horse.
SAI (Structure Adaptation Index)
Structure Adaptation Index
This is an index that shows,
how well the horse is adapted to the structure of this race
.
Even if a horse has high ability,
if it is not suited to the current race development, its rating will decrease.
Conversely, even if its ability ranking is slightly lower,
if it fits the current structure perfectly, its rating will increase.
In other words,
it is an index that looks at "whether the horse can run well in this race".
SUM (Comprehensive Ability Index)
This is an index that evaluates the overall ability a horse possesses.
It comprehensively evaluates recent race performance and proven ability.
Simply put,
“ability ranking”
is how you can think of it.
EV (Expected Value Index)
EV is
not an ability ranking.
It is an index that evaluates
“whether it is worth betting on”
by also taking market popularity into account.
For example,
even if a horse is ranked 1st in ability, if it is too popular, its EV will not increase.
Conversely,
even if a horse is ranked 5th in ability, if it has the potential to perform better than its popularity suggests, its EV will be high.
At AGMG,
the gap between ability and market evaluation
is particularly emphasized.
Other main indices
CORE
The core ability that the horse itself possesses.
We evaluate abilities that are unlikely to fluctuate significantly even if the race development or track conditions change.
BI (Balance Index)
This is not about strength.
A horse whose evaluation is unlikely to drop even if the structure changes
The higher it is, the better.
For example,
a horse that can run in a closing race
a horse that can run when the leaders hold on
Horses with such high adaptability are highly evaluated.
GAP
An index that looks at the balance between ability and market evaluation.
The more consistently a horse proves its ability, the higher it is evaluated.
MIS (Market Inefficiency Score)
An index indicating the possibility that the market is underestimating a horse.
However,
we do not evaluate based on a high MIS alone.
Only when accompanied by ability and structural adaptability does a horse become a target.
CSI
An index that quantifies aptitude for each race structure.
For example,
L3 Closer CSI 92
means that
it has a very high aptitude for the L3 closer structure.
Terms frequently used in withkeiba
Structure
Refers to the race flow or development likely to occur in the current race.
Ability-based race
A race where the horses with the highest ability are likely to achieve the expected results.
Structure-based race
A race where results are not determined by ability alone,
but are significantly influenced by positioning and race development.
Structural anchor
A horse that serves as the benchmark for analyzing the current race structure.
It possesses not only high ability but also high structural adaptability, making it a horse whose evaluation remains stable even if the race development changes slightly.
Ability core
Within the current structure,
the central horse most likely to demonstrate its full ability.
Market discrepancy
A state where the market evaluation has not yet caught up with the actual ability.
It does not mean a longshot,
a horse where there is a discrepancy between its ability and its popularity
is what it refers to.
How to read AGMG articles easily
It is recommended to read the articles in the following order.
① SSI (Race Structure Index)
First,
check what kind of race it is likely to be this time.
↓
② SAI (Structure Adaptation Index)
Check for horses that fit that structure.
↓
③ SUM (Comprehensive Ability Index)
Check the top-rated horses by ability.
↓
④ EV (Expected Value Index)
Finally,
while looking at the balance between ability and popularity,
consider
whether it is worth betting on.
What withkeiba values
withkeiba is not
a horse racing community that only looks at marks.
It is not.
What we aim for is
a horse racing community that also conveys 'why that evaluation was reached.'is what we aim for.
Therefore, the indices
do not exist to make things difficult.
They are tools to organize races,
and make the way of thinking easier to understand.
To start with,
SSI, SAI, SUM, and EV.
It is enough if you just remember these four.
If you read on little by little from there,
you should be able to see the same race from a different perspective than before.
Finally,
in horse racing,
there is ability.
there is race development.
there is popularity.
AGMG,
considers these three separately.
Not "which horse has the ability,"
but "which horse can utilize that ability this time?"
That is the horse racing analysis that withkeiba delivers every week.