🌱 Naoharu Note Episode 512: Why Styrofoam Dome Houses Are Recommended — A New Order for Housing Based on 'Exit Strategies'
1. Choosing a home by working backward from the 'exit'
When buying a home, many people think of it as their 'forever home'.
But in reality, nothing lasts forever.
People inevitably age, and eventually, they must sell it to someone.
Even though this is obvious, surprisingly, this 'exit' does not function well in this world.
As a result, Japanese society today is full of vacant houses.
Inheritance and sales are stalled, and the situation is only getting worse.
That is why I want to emphasize 'resale' decades from now to those who are about to buy a home.
If it doesn't have the value to make a future buyer think, 'This is the one!', you shouldn't buy it.
You don't buy real estate alone; you buy it together with a future buyer.
2. The end of urban concentration and the collapse of the 'station-front myth'
Until now, we have considered being substantial and large as a virtue, and prime locations in front of stations as the 'correct answer'.
Seeking convenience, living in a tower mansion in front of a station was a sign of success.
However, please think about the next 10 or 20 years.
The spread of autonomous driving is now inevitable.
The concept of movement will change from the ground up.
The former 'station-front supremacy' will collapse.
Convenience will no longer be tied to location.
There will be no need to cling to expensive, cramped urban areas.
3. The fate of condominiums and the universal value of land
30 or 50 years from now, who on earth will want that property?
• The fate of tower mansions: Even now, about 10% of existing condominiums are already vacant.
If repair reserve funds cannot be collected, there is no hope for reconstruction costs.
Without the possibility of reaching a consensus among residents, they will become ghost towns.
Who would pay a large sum of money to buy one of those units?
It is not an asset, but a 'negative legacy' to be pushed onto the next generation.
• The trap of small, multi-story houses: Houses with 3 or 4 stories built forcibly on small plots of land also face the same risks as condominiums, as demolition costs skyrocket and the land-to-building ratio is low.
The value of a building is lost over time, but the value of land is not.
4. A proposal for the next generation: Styrofoam dome houses
When I thoroughly considered an 'exit strategy,' the 'solution' I want to recommend to the next generation is a dome-shaped house made of Styrofoam.
Of course, it might not be something for right now. But I want small children today to remember this when they become adults.
The risks of population decline, a shrinking birthrate and aging population, industrial decline, and the Nankai Trough mega-earthquake will be even more serious than they are now. It might even be during the recovery period from those events.
If a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake occurs, there is a high probability that a major eruption of Mount Fuji will follow.
In that case, one in two Japanese people will become a disaster victim.
At that time, what kind of house will the winners be living in?
What kind of house will the losers be living in?
I want you to think about it for a moment.
I believe this type of housing is the next generation's answer to these Japanese challenges.
I think this is such an important topic that knowing or not knowing about this text could change the lives of young people in that generation!
• Liberation from weight: The ultra-lightweight material minimizes the impact of seismic energy.
It reduces the risk of collapse against fatal disasters like the Nankai Trough mega-earthquake or a Mount Fuji eruption.
• The average modern household size is about 2 people.
Huge mansions for the sake of appearances are unnecessary.
• High insulation reduces future utility costs.
Also, even if there is a long-term power outage during a disaster, you can manage to live without air conditioning in summer or winter.
That sense of security is very reassuring.
• Also, the short construction period and low construction costs help you avoid spending the precious time of your life on labor.
• A beautiful 'closing':
Unlike a massive block of concrete, it is far easier to dismantle and remove when it has served its purpose.
Conclusion: A new order for living lightly in the suburbs
The era of 'a house is a heavy, once-in-a-lifetime purchase' is coming to an end.
From now on, the idea will change to one where it doesn't have to be near a station due to autonomous driving.
It is a style of living in the suburbs, securing proper land, and placing a 'light structure' like a dome-shaped house on it.
While protecting the 'value of the land,' the building should be thoroughly simple and functional.
Looking ahead to when I die, or when a disaster makes it impossible to live in that town, I am convinced that this round, soft-formed house will be one of the solutions for the new era.