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Why Data Reveals Nvidia Falls Despite Strong Earnings: AI Stocks to Buy Now and Smart Money Trends (05/25/26 Daily News)

まどか｜US株ジャーナル｜特許出願と求人で米国株式の市場を読む


Market Overview & AI Sentiment Index

AI Sentiment Index: 🐮Bull 65% / 🐻Bear 35%
Major index futures are trending firmly, with dip-buying leading in AI-related stocks and Tesla. Despite concerns such as Nvidia's post-earnings decline and political pressure on the Fed, the stock market as a whole maintains a bullish trend near record highs, supported by robust consumption among high-income earners.

💡 Editor's Note: While capital is flowing into growth sectors like healthcare and technology, communication and defensive sectors remain soft, clearly reflecting the market's risk-on stance.






US Stock Heatmap

This is a heatmap that allows you to check the movement of today's US stock market at a glance. Green indicates gains, and red indicates losses.


🌍 Macro & Pro Indicator Board

  • 📊 Pre-market Futures: All three major indices are in positive territory, led by Dow futures (+0.56%), indicating a solid start.

  • 💹 Currencies & Commodities: While the Dollar-Yen (158.83) shows minimal movement, Bitcoin (+0.50%) and WTI Crude Oil (+0.26%) are rising, confirming capital inflows into risk assets.

  • 📉 US Treasury Yields & VIX: The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.558% (-0.61%), and the VIX index has also settled at 16.70 (-0.36%), providing a tailwind for the stock market.

  • 🌡️ Fear & Greed: Recorded at 59 (😀 Greed), investor sentiment remains in a moderately bullish state.


(*Graph: Current Fear & Greed Index)

  • 📈 Sector Trends: Healthcare (+1.17%) and Technology (+1.00%) are leading the market, while capital is flowing out of Communication (-0.55%).


(*Graph: Daily performance by sector)
💡 Macro Comprehensive Insight: The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield and the stability of the VIX at low levels suggest an extremely favorable liquidity environment for the stock market. It is speculated that smart money is building systematic long positions against a backdrop of declining volatility while leveraging index-driven passive flows.

📅 Today's Market Schedule

Economic Indicators

There are no major economic indicator releases scheduled for today.

Earnings Announcements

  • TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • TLK (Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • ICLR (ICON Public Limited Company): Q4 2025 Earnings Announcement

  • JOYY (JOYY Inc.): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • FINV (FinVolution Group): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • LX (LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • AREC (American Resources Corporation): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • LMEFF (Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc.): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • FTHM (Fathom Holdings Inc.): Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement

  • REE (REE Automotive Ltd.): H2 2025 Earnings Announcement

💡 Focus: The earnings performance of TCOM (Trip.com), which benefits from the recovery in Chinese travel demand, serves as an important litmus test for gauging global consumption trends.

📰 Today's News & Smart Money Trend Forecasts

[5/24] Widening Wealth Inequality and the Reality of the U.S. Economy

Importance: ★★★★☆ | Market Impact: 💖

📰 Fact/Data

  • While the US consumer sentiment index is declining, the stock market has reached new all-time highs.

  • Data shows that high-income earners are driving the majority of personal consumption, indicating a widening wealth gap in the economy.

🔍 US Stock Journal Insight

  • The structure of a K-shaped recovery has become entrenched, and the dominance of sectors benefiting from luxury consumption and the wealth effect will likely continue in the long term.

💡 Editor's Note: It is an effective strategy to avoid investing in retail stocks targeting low-to-middle income earners and instead tilt your portfolio toward companies that target the wealthy.


[5/24] Stock market rebounds to record highs, AI stocks become a buying opportunity

Importance: ★★★★☆ | Market Impact: 💖

📰 Fact

  • After a decline at the start of the week, major stock indices rebounded and reached record-high levels.

  • Tesla and several AI-related stocks have reached buying points based on technical analysis.

🔍 US Stock Journal Insight

  • The strength of the appetite for buying on dips has been confirmed, and capital inflows from momentum investors are expected to accelerate further.

💡 Editor's Note: For stocks that have confirmed a breakout, this is a good opportunity to enter with a trend-following strategy while setting tight stop-losses.


[5/24] Trump's 3,711 transactions reveal market strategy

Importance: ★★★☆☆ | Market Impact: 💖

📰 Fact

  • In 3,711 financial transactions related to Trump, the use of index tracking and automated execution algorithms was confirmed.

  • These transaction histories incorporate multiple stock market strategies.

🔍 US Stock Journal Insight

  • The fact that even political figures are adopting systematic trading that combines passive management with quantitative strategies underscores the superiority of algorithmic trading in today's market.

💡 Editor's Note: Individual investors should also eliminate emotional discretionary trading and incorporate core-satellite strategies using ETFs or rule-based management.


[5/24] Trump pressures Fed Chair candidate Walsh

Importance: ★★★★★ | Market Impact: 💔

📰 Fact

  • Trump told Fed Chair candidate Walsh, 'Don't worry about me or anyone else.'

  • Walsh is facing the strongest pressure to cut interest rates of any Fed Chair in recent years.

🔍 US Stock Journal Insight

  • Friction between political pressure and the independence of monetary policy is likely to become a catalyst for a sharp rise in market volatility following future FOMC decisions.

💡 Editor's Note: If you hold tech stocks or real estate sectors sensitive to interest rate trends, you need to hedge against sudden price movements caused by statements from Fed officials.


[5/24] Nvidia stock falls despite strong earnings, the background

Importance: ★★★★★ | Market Impact: 💔

📰 Fact

  • Nvidia announced earnings that beat market expectations in revenue, profit, and guidance, but its stock price fell.

  • This marks the fourth consecutive quarter that the company's stock price has fallen following an earnings announcement.

🔍 US Stock Journal Insight

  • It can be analyzed that the narrowing margin of outperformance against the market's unofficial 'whisper numbers,' rather than the absolute value of the results, is triggering profit-taking by institutional investors.

💡 Editor's Note: The AI semiconductor sector has shifted into a 'Buy the rumor, sell the fact' phase, so position building around earnings releases should be approached with caution.


🕵️ Smart Money Trend Forecast

💡 Editor's Note: Given Nvidia's post-earnings decline and the rise of algorithmic trading, it is predicted that smart money is shifting capital toward index-led passive investment to avoid the volatility risk of individual stocks.



💡 Today's Q&A & Tomorrow's Trading Plan

Q: What are 'Automated Execution' and 'Index Tracking,' which were also confirmed in Mr. Trump's trades?
A: Automated execution is a mechanism where computer programs automatically execute trades based on pre-set rules (such as price or time). Index tracking is an investment method that aims to replicate the exact price movements of stock indices like the S&P 500. By combining these, it is possible to eliminate human emotion and achieve efficient, low-cost asset management.

🎯 Tomorrow's Trading Plan

S&P 500 futures are hovering around 7490 points, and the focus will be on whether they can break through the psychological barrier of 7500 points, which is the immediate resistance level. The downside support is set at 7450 points. For individual investors, the risk of a sharp decline is seen as limited due to the low VIX level, but caution is required regarding headline risks related to the Fed and interest rate cut pressures. While maintaining a 'buy the dip' strategy, please manage your position sizes appropriately to avoid being caught in sudden profit-taking in AI-related stocks.

📎 References & Sources

  • Common Dreams: 'Biggest Wealth Divide in Modern History': Graphic Shows Shocking Reality of US Economy

  • Investor's Business Daily: Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Rebounds To Highs; Tesla, These Five AI Plays Are At Buy Points

  • Bloomberg.com: Trump’s 3,711 Trades Point to Multiple Stock-Market Strategies

  • Axios: Trump to Fed chair Warsh: "Don't look at me, don't look at anybody"

  • The Motley Fool: Nvidia Just Crushed Earnings Estimates, but the Stock Fell. Here's What Happened (and What Could Happen Next).


#StockInvestment #USStocks #USStockMarket #InvestmentStrategy #NVDA #TSLA #AISemiconductors #Fed #InterestRateCuts #Earnings #AlgorithmicTrading #IndexInvesting #TechStocks #Macroeconomics #MarketAnalysis #DailyNote #DailyUpdate #Column

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