Has it become harder for new songs to become hits? Listener changes and the 'freshness' vs. 'fermentation' indicated by data

Billboard JAPAN has introduced a "recurrent rule" that applies a certain point deduction to songs that have charted for a total of 52 weeks. Since the Tsuredure Research Lab is interested in the mysteries of humans and society, I would like to explore why a structural change where 'past songs continue to increase on hit charts' is occurring to the extent that a rule change is necessary... and what kind of changes in listener behavior are in the background. What emerged was a new profile of listeners who have begun to cherish the 'fermentation' of hits more than their 'freshness'.

Are songs that are listened to for a long time really increasing?

First of all, how many songs that are subject to this new rule—'songs that have been on the chart for over 52 weeks'—actually exist? If we visualize Billboard JAPAN's data from the past 17 years, we can see that the number has clearly been on an upward trend in recent years.

Of course, there are songs like Vaundy's "Kaiju no Hanauta" that slowly permeate listeners over several years after release and become beloved at the top of the charts.

If this song had already been under the recurrent rule at the time of its release, it would have been subject to point deduction at the point indicated by the dotted line, which is the 52nd week of charting. The subsequent breakout might not have happened, or if it did, it might have been somewhat more gradual. Considering the existence of such '

fermenting hits' that are discovered by listeners over time, we cannot simply conclude that 'long-term charting equals bad'.

That is precisely why a more fundamental question arises. Why is a structural change occurring where 'past songs continue to increase on hit charts' to the extent that the introduction of a recurrent rule is necessary?

Various factors can be considered for this background as seen from the data. For example, Japan's population pyramid has a structure with fewer young people compared to countries like the United States.

As subscription services become more widespread among the middle-aged and elderly, it is possible that the structure itself, where young people take the lead in pushing new artists of their generation to the top of the charts as they once did, is changing.

However, as I will touch upon later, there seems to be a change occurring at a deeper level that cannot be explained by demographics alone.

Why is 'interest in hit charts' not increasing?

The number of songs staying on the charts for a long time is increasing. On the other hand, strangely enough, interest in the very existence of 'hit charts' does not seem to be growing. Let's compare the 'transition in the number of long-term charting songs on Billboard charts' with the 'transition in domestic search volume for Billboard/Oricon charts'.

While Billboard-related search volume has neither increased nor decreased, the number of long-term charting songs is increasing. There does not appear to be a strong relationship between interest in charts and the longevity of charting. On the other hand, it is striking that Oricon chart search volume has halved.

Despite the explosive increase in the number of songs available to listen to via streaming, why does the 'total volume of interest in hit charts' appear to have plateaued or even decreased?

The data suggests the possibility that the number of people actively looking at the 'packaged whole' that is the hit chart is at least not increasing.

As a clue to solving this mystery, I would like to borrow the anthropological concept of 'Dunbar's number'. This is a theory that there is a correlation between the 'size of a primate's brain' and the 'size of the group that the individual can maintain stable social relationships with,' and in the case of humans, that number is said to be about 150. No matter how much social media evolves, there is a cognitive upper limit to the number of friends we can deeply engage with.

What happens if we apply this way of thinking to music listening?
We are considering the possibility that there exists a kind of 'cognitive upper limit' that we might call a 'music version of Dunbar's number'. The number of artists and songs that a single person can truly care about, actively follow the trends of, and develop an attachment to... even if streaming services make access to 'infinite songs' possible, it may not actually increase that easily.

Hypothesis: The 'infinite shelf' and our 'limited brains'

Modern society can be called an era of the 'attention economy,' where information and content exist in greater abundance than ever before. In that environment, the scarce resource is not the information itself, but the human 'attention' that receives it. It is pointed out that as a result of the excessive supply of information, 'poverty of attention' occurs.

The same is true for music; while the 'infinite shelf' provided by streaming services gives listeners vast choices, it makes it difficult to focus on individual songs, artists, or even collective indicators like hit charts. One study suggests that the average human attention span has dropped to a few seconds, and it is even said that “an abundance of content kills attention”.

And what exactly is happening within that 'limited cognitive frame'?

Modern listeners are increasingly demonstrating ' cultural omnivorousness,' enjoying a wide variety of music in parallel, transcending eras, countries, and genres.

If we combine these two—the cognitive ' upper limit of the frame' known as the 'music version of Dunbar's number' and the ' diversification of how the frame is filled' known as 'cultural omnivorousness'—a new landscape comes into view.

In other words, while our total capacity for interest (Dunbar's number) remains unchanged, an unprecedentedly diverse array of artists and songs is being packed into that limited frame like a mosaic. As a result, the attention poured into each individual song is inevitably 'broad but only moderately deep.'

This seems to hold the hint to solving the mystery. Even if technology provides an 'infinite shelf,' the range our brains can view at once is limited. This multiplication of cognitive bottlenecks and cultural omnivorousness may be the fundamental reason why interest in hit charts, which represent the 'greatest common divisor of society,' appears to have plateaued.

As a result, interest in hit charts as the 'greatest common divisor' of society as a whole may diverge significantly from the listening experiences of individual listeners, potentially leading to a relative decline. If a listener's 'music version of Dunbar's number' is filled with a diverse mix of old and new songs, ranging from niche to popular, the proportion of songs in that mix that rank in the national 'Top 100' may be small, and the chart itself may feel less meaningful to 'the music experience they are having.' Since attention is a scarce resource, the cognitive cost of actively tracking a chart that does not reflect one's actual listening habits is simply too high.

According to Luminate data, the share of 'catalog tracks' (songs released more than 18 months ago) in total US music consumption has been increasing year by year, reaching 73.3% in 2024 from 62.8% in 2019.

This fact suggests that listeners are finding value in and actively listening to songs that have long passed their release date, not just new releases. This data also casts doubt on the validity of devaluing a song's status on the charts based solely on the 'total time spent in the charts.'

From 'Newness' to 'Narrative': A Shift in Value Criteria

A quiet gap has emerged between the speed of technological evolution and the human 'brain OS' that does not change easily. In the midst of this, the way we listen to music is quietly but surely transforming.

For example, Remioromen's '3gatsu 9ka' is a 20-year-old song, so looking at it from that perspective, it has never been a 'new song' for the younger generation. However, the song, originally written by Ryota Fujimaki for a friend's wedding, eventually came to be sung at graduation ceremonies, and it has started appearing in the upper ranks of the Billboard JAPAN charts in March.

Let's analyze the comments section of the YouTube video for Remioromen's '3gatsu 9ka,' which was posted 16 years after its release and has been viewed over 50 million times.

The cluster in the upper right represents emotions strongly tied to the event of 'graduation.' There are many comments from the current generation who are either about to graduate or have just graduated, saying things like 'I just had my graduation ceremony!', and they frankly express complex emotions just before graduation—sentimental feelings about parting, gratitude toward friends, and expectations and anxieties about the future—while looking back on specific scenes of school life (club activities, classes, days with friends).

It can be seen that this song functions for listeners as more than just music, but as a diverse ' anchor for experiences and memories.'

Also, the fact that the comments section forms a kind of community like an 'annual gathering place' seems to be its most significant feature. Interesting...!

Songs from the past, which were once clearly categorized as 'oldies,' are now emerging alongside new songs as 'songs to listen to now.' Just as Remioromen's '3gatsu 9ka' continues to be 'rediscovered' across generations, there is an aspect where listeners themselves become 'editors,' giving new meaning to the songs.

This change feels similar to the ' revitalization of the vintage clothing market' happening in the fashion world.

Let's visualize the trend in the number of stores for '2nd STREET,' the top-share chain for reused clothing and fashion accessories, using materials from Geo Holdings' financial results briefing.

It is on track to reach 1,000 stores, continuing to grow even during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is reported that they are also expanding stores in the US and Asia. Furthermore, let's visualize the scale of the global reuse market.

The vintage clothing market is expanding globally, with views that it will grow long-term in North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe.

In the world of culture, the meaning of 'newness' is transforming in this way. While fast fashion and e-commerce offer convenience, the one-of-a-kind vintage items found through time and effort in physical stores create a special value of 'I searched for and found this myself.' It may be that in the music world, too, 'newness on the release date' is no longer the supreme value.

The Democratization of Hits: 'Fermenting Hits' and 'Sleeper Hits'

Looking at it this way, we realize that hit charts contain not only 'fresh' hits that climb up with instantaneous wind speed, but also, like Remioromen's '3gatsu 9ka' (March 9th), 'fermenting' hits that deeply permeate daily life and mature over time.

'Fermenting hits' also overlap with a phenomenon known in the entertainment industry as a 'sleeper hit.' A sleeper hit refers to a work that did not achieve major success upon its initial release but achieves surprise success over time due to word-of-mouth, media exposure, or unexpected viral spread on the internet.

Historically, sleeper hits in music were often triggered by use in commercials or films (sync placement). For example, there are cases where mid-20th-century songs used in Levi's commercials in the UK during the 1980s and 90s became revival hits.

However, in the modern streaming era, especially with the rise of short-form video platforms like TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and Instagram Reels, the mechanism for creating sleeper hits has changed significantly, and it is thought that their frequency has increased. It has become common to see cases where songs released several years or even more than a decade ago are rediscovered and reach a wide range of listeners triggered by trends on these platforms.

This change seems to mean that the process of 'fermentation' has become more democratized and unpredictable. In the past, sync placement was controlled by relatively centralized gatekeepers such as major music companies and advertising agencies.

However, on platforms like TikTok, almost any song from any era can be re-evaluated through user-driven organic trends. As a result, the potential for a song to become a hit is no longer judged solely by the short period immediately following its release, and the song's lifecycle has become more fluid and long-term. The 'catalog' no longer functions as a static archive, but as a dynamic repertoire with the potential to generate new hits.

This suggests that for artists and labels, it is necessary to have a vision that values not only the initial success of a song but also its long-term potential, in order to seize opportunities for unexpected resurfacing.

While recurrent rules aim to maintain the 'freshness' of charts, the existence of these 'fermenting' songs shows that hit charts are not just rankings, but also have an aspect as cultural indicators linked to the memories of the era.

And what is accelerating this structure from both business and technological perspectives are the intentions of record companies to 'monetize past catalogs' and 'algorithmic personalization' by platformers.

It is as if it were the very style of modern information behavior, such as grasping the content of long videos only through 'clips' or understanding the content of long texts only through AI 'summaries.' As access to the 'original whole' is shortcut, the fragments of information that the algorithm presents according to an individual's interests become the 'world' for that person.

Against the backdrop of such a structure, we may now be in an era where, rather than looking into a single large mirror called 'the world's hit chart' as we once did, we are viewing reflections from countless fragments of 'my own hit charts' personalized by algorithms.

And the change is happening all over the world

Surprisingly, this phenomenon of 'past hits occupying the latest charts' is not unique to Japan or the United States. Comparing Spotify data across countries around the world, we can see that this trend is progressing globally.

Japan is leading the way, but the ratio of long-charting songs is steadily increasing in Indonesia, which has a large young population, and in emerging regions like Africa.

It is as if 'technology'—smartphones, social media, and streaming services—is providing a foundation like a globally common 'OS' for how we listen to music.

This may not mean that listeners' 'musical tastes' around the world are becoming uniform, but rather that

'the infrastructure for how we encounter music to reach our tastes'

has been standardized and globalized by technology.

Let's enjoy the music map of a new era

Billboard JAPAN's recurrent rule is one attempt to somehow maintain the value of 'freshness' in the charts amidst such massive structural changes. However, what we are witnessing now is not merely a rule change. It feels like the 'sprouting of new values' where listeners themselves find value in 'fermentation' and actively reweave culture, a 'change in our sense of time', and even the 'unpredictable cultural dynamism woven by technology and human cognitive limits' itself.

A world overflowing with 'my own personal hit charts.' Is it a lonely world where a common topic of conversation has been lost...?

If you look at it differently, it is the dawn of a freer and richer era where each individual's feeling of 'liking' something is respected more than ever, and diverse music from diverse eras can shine equally within their respective contexts.

There, the role of the listener itself may be changing. Instead of chasing ranking numbers, they find joy in 'digging deep into what they 'like' and sharing it with peers who have the same values.' Being aware of the distance from 'rankings created by someone else' and skillfully navigating algorithmic recommendations, they 'face music with their own internal yardstick.' The act of 'finding' unknown music with one's own hands, unbound by the era, becomes a new form of entertainment, and the value of 'accidental encounters' at live concerts and festivals will likely be re-evaluated even more than it is now.

Listeners will change their role from mere consumers to bearers who support the music culture they cherish. Such a shift in consciousness will likely foster a more multi-layered music culture where the past and present are connected flatly and seamlessly on digital technology.

Creators, too, may shift from the conventional 'hunting-style' business of aiming for a single mega-hit to a 'farming-style' approach of deeply cultivating relationships with fans and reaping long-term harvests. Instead of a single yardstick like 'chart ranking,' new value criteria such as 'how deeply it is loved in a specific community' should become more important.

What kind of encounters with unknown music await us beyond this change? Thinking about it, doesn't it make you feel a little excited...?

Key points of this article

• The gap between the 'infinite shelf' and the 'limited brain': While our total interest in music (the music version of Dunbar's number) is limited, 'cultural omnivorousness'—enjoying songs from diverse eras—is progressing. Could this be causing the increase in long-term hits and the stagnation of interest in charts simultaneously?

• Value shift from 'freshness' to 'fermentation': 'Newness of release date' is no longer an absolute value, and 'fermenting hits' that stay close to daily life and are loved over time are also important. Listeners are no longer mere recipients, but 'editors' who find meaning for themselves.

• From 'everyone's hit chart' to 'my own hit chart collection': The possibility that algorithmic personalization is turning the hit chart, which was a large mirror of society, into a collection of countless 'my own hit charts.'

• Crustal movements occurring globally: This change is not unique to Japan but is a global phenomenon. It can be seen as the result of technology providing a common foundation for 'how to encounter music' worldwide.

That's all from the Turedure Research Lab. I also post about things I'm interested in on X using open data and programming. Please support me 🙏