30by30 is a 'means', not an 'end'

At the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15), a target was set to expand protected areas to at least 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030, known as 30by30.

Expanding nature reserves is a powerful method for securing wildlife habitats and curbing the loss of biodiversity. In fact, within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, there is a history of setting targets for protected area coverage and gradually expanding them.

From 1992 to 2010, the target was 4–17%, and the Aichi Targets from 2010 to 2020 aimed to protect 17% of land and 10% of marine areas. However, despite these international efforts to expand protected areas, the reality is that biodiversity loss has not been halted.

Why is this?

One reason for this is the 'quality' of the protected areas.

In other words, conventional policies for expanding protected areas have not sufficiently considered the effectiveness of conservation or the conservation impact relative to the area protected (cost-effectiveness).

Before we engage with 30by30, we must recognize a fact: the expansion of protected areas over the past few decades has lacked sufficient effectiveness in terms of spatial arrangement and management.

If we do not understand this issue, even if we achieve the 30by30 numerical target, we will likely fail to halt the loss of biodiversity.

30by30 is not about achieving a numerical goal; it is a 'means' to improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation through protected areas.

One reason why the conventional expansion of protected area coverage has not sufficiently led to biodiversity conservation benefits is that the goal itself became simply increasing the numerical value of protected area coverage. This is a consequence of what is pointed out by Goodhart's Law and Campbell's Law: 'When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.'

Biodiversity Big Data Technology Platform

According to our analysis, which utilizes biodiversity big data, AI, and optimization analysis, it is numerically clear that if protected areas are ideally expanded into areas important for conservation, the extinction risk for wildlife species can be mitigated.

On the other hand, establishing protected areas legally restricts the use of land and sea within those areas, so it is not possible to expand them ideally based solely on the importance of biodiversity conservation. We cannot designate just anywhere, such as private land, as a protected area, and the locations where protected areas can be established are socially and economically limited.

Spatial planning based on a scientific approach that preserves the richness of land and sea while embodying harmony with socio-economic use is essential, and the Biodiversity Big Data Technology Platform is what implements this.