[IF History] Part 4: What if Oda Nobunaga survived and became the 'King of Japan'?

Part 4: The Challenge of the United States of Japan (1802-1853)

1. Overview of the Era

~An 'Imperfect Monster' Born from the Ashes~

In 1802, a new national flag was raised at the old city hall in Osaka. It was not the royal family's crest (the Oda mokko), but a simple 'Hinomaru' (sun disc) symbolizing the Land of the Rising Sun.

What was established here was Asia's first republic, the "United States of Japan".

However, the 'freedom and equality' that the citizens dreamed of did not arrive immediately. After driving out the king, those who took the seat of power were the 'former daimyo-affiliated zaibatsu' and 'wealthy merchants' who had been pulling the strings of the revolution behind the scenes. The new rules they created were simple and cruel.

"If you want to vote, pay your taxes."

This country was a 'limited suffrage' state where only a tiny fraction of the wealthy elite influenced politics. From a modern perspective, it was a 'flawed democracy' full of defects. Yet, ironically in history, this "dictatorship by greedy elites" became the engine that modernized Japan at an astonishing speed.

In order to 'enrich the nation' (i.e., make themselves rich), they adopted Western technology without hesitation. By the 1810s, the skies over Osaka and Edo were blackened by factory smoke, and the whistles of steam locomotives echoed throughout the land. This was the arrival of an "Industrial Revolution" more than half a century earlier than the Meiji Restoration in actual history.

• What declined: The class system, the spirit of the samurai, and the pastoral landscape.

• What emerged: Capitalism, the working class, nationalism, and 'military power'.

Around the world, Britain and France were turning Asia into colonies one after another. Amidst this, Japan was a heretical nation racing to become one of the 'predators' (great powers) rather than the 'prey'.

Waiting at the end of that sprint was the "Arrival of Perry" in 1853. How will this event, which is told in actual history as the 'terror of the Black Ships,' end in this timeline?

What kind of flowers did the seeds sown by Oda Nobunaga bloom into after 200 years? Let me guide you to the final destination of this historical simulation.

2. Smoke, Steam, and the Greedy Republic

(1802-1853)

Having abolished the monarchy, Japan rushed toward the pursuit of 'wealth and power' as if the restraints had been removed.

2-1. The Launch of the Zaibatsu Republic (1802-1815)

• 1802 (Republic Year 1): Establishment of the United States of Japan
  The year after the revolution, a new constitution was enacted in Osaka. The capital was set in Osaka, the center of the economy, and the head of the Tokugawa clan, who led the revolutionary army, was elected as the first president. However, in reality, it was not a 'nation for the people.' Suffrage was limited to "taxpayers above a certain amount", and voters accounted for only 3% of the population. It was a 'plutocracy' where the real political power was held by giant zaibatsu such as the Hojo (Kanto), Date (Tohoku), and Shimazu (Kyushu), who were the sponsors of the revolution.

• 1810 (Republic Year 9): The First Industrial Revolution (The Manchester of the East)
  The new government utilized its connections with Britain to import massive amounts of the latest 'steam engines.' Brick spinning mills lined the coastlines of Osaka, Sakai, and Amagasaki, and black smoke covered the sky. Cheap, high-quality Japanese cotton products drove out the British goods that had once dominated the Japanese market and were instead exported to the Asian market. In less than 10 years, Japan had forcibly transformed from an agricultural nation into an industrial one.

• 1815 (Republic Year 14): Hokkaido Development Act
  To secure 'coal' as fuel for factories, the government began large-scale development of Hokkaido (Ezo). Instead of colonial soldiers, unemployed urban workers were sent as 'pioneer laborers.' Coal mines were opened in Yubari and Kushiro, supporting Japan's industrialization from an energy perspective.

2-2. Maintaining Open Borders and National Mobilization (1825-1840)

• 1825 (Republic Year 24): Rejection of the 'Edict to Repel Foreign Vessels'
  As isolationist ideologies (Joi theory) grew domestically, a 'bill to forcibly drive away foreign ships' was submitted to the parliament. However, the zaibatsu lawmakers, who had gained immense wealth through trade, rejected it.'It is not isolation that protects the country. It is the profits from trade and the military power nurtured by them.' Through this parliamentary debate, Japan's national policy was firmly set on 'enriching the country and strengthening the military.'

• 1837 (Republic Year 36): The Tenpo Labor Disputes
  Rapid industrialization created harsh working conditions. In the factory district of Osaka, Japan's first 'large-scale strike' occurred, led by workers suffering from low wages. The government suppressed this with police force, but was simultaneously forced to enact a 'Labor Protection Act.' It was an event where the immature republic, while suffering from internal contradictions, corrected its social system.

• 1840 (Republic Year 39): The Shock of the Opium War
  The news that the neighboring great power, Qing (China), had been soundly defeated in a war with Britain shocked the Japanese government. Feeling a sense of crisis that 'we are next,' the government accelerated its military buildup. It reformed its previous mercenary-centered military and introduced'conscription.' The government poured more than half of the national budget into building a modern army based on universal conscription and a domestic fleet centered on steamships.

2-3. The Fateful Encounter (1853)

• 1853 (Republic Year 52): Arrival of the Perry Fleet (The Reversal at Uraga)
  In July, Commodore Matthew Perry of the American East India Squadron appeared off the coast of Uraga, leading four warships (Black Ships). His mission was 'forced opening' through gunboat diplomacy. However, seeing Japan emerge from the fog, Perry felt his hand holding the binoculars tremble.

  1. There, flying the Rising Sun flag, six steam frigate fleets of the Republic of Japan were waiting in orderly formation.

  2. The defenses of Edo Bay were filled with fortress cannons maintained by the Hojo zaibatsu, and it was clear that if they acted carelessly, the American fleet would be sunk. Perry withdrew his intimidating attitude and landed strictly as a 'diplomatic envoy.' He shook hands with the Japanese representative (Presidential Envoy) and sat at the negotiating table for the 'Treaty of Peace and Amity between Japan and the United States.'

  3. It was the first treaty an Asian country had concluded with Western powers on 'equal footing.' The 'independence' that Nobunaga dreamed of, Ieyasu laid the foundation for, and nameless citizens won through revolution was proven to the world on this day.

3. Conclusion - 'Another Answer' to History

The handshake between Japan and the U.S. exchanged in the waters of Uraga in 1853. It was not the moment Japan was 'forced to open,' but the moment Japan achieved 'entry into the club of world powers.'

271 years after Nobunaga escaped Honno-ji. At the end of this long detour, what the Japanese people arrived at was 'a republic ruled by gold, iron, and steam, with neither an Emperor nor a Shogun.'

What Nobunaga Left Behind

What would Oda Nobunaga, in heaven (or hell), think if he saw this scene? Would he be enraged to see the royal family he created overthrown and the country run by merchants and former samurai?

No, he would surely grin. Because this 'Republic of Japan' is the completed form of the 'world where ability, not lineage or authority, rules everything' that he once aimed for. The seed of 'rationalism' that Nobunaga sowed grew over 200 years, even consuming his own descendants, into the great tree of a robust modern nation.

Differences from the 'Meiji Japan' we know

Japan in this timeline might be a little drier and a little tougher than the 'Meiji Japan' we know. Lacking the spiritual pillar of the 'Emperor,' they might be inferior in terms of unity, but they are far superior in terms of individual independence and economic sense.

They would neither 'worship' nor 'view with hostility' the Western powers. They would simply, coldly, deal with them as equals as 'business partners (competitors)'. Perhaps, even in the 20th century, the century of war that follows, they might use their inherent diplomatic sense and economic power to avoid a catastrophic world war and survive.

In closing this story

Thinking about 'what if' history is not just a fantasy game. It is also a journey to rediscover 'what is missing in Japan today', and 'what kind of potential we Japanese originally possessed'.

Nobunaga's decisiveness, Ieyasu's vision, and the energy of the nameless citizens. These things are by no means only in fiction, and they must surely be sleeping within our DNA today.

A steamship flying the Rising Sun flag anchored off the coast of Uraga. The black smoke billowing from its chimney is a signal fire announcing the dawn of a new era. May there be much happiness in the future of Asia's first republic.

Thank you for joining me for this four-part historical simulation. I hope this story helps stimulate your imagination.