Web Media Is Ending and the 'Era of Direct Media' Is Beginning

We are in an era of change where even Web media outlets are becoming old media.

In recent years, emerging platforms centered on YouTube and note have seen remarkable growth, fostering a 'massive ecosystem driven by individual creators' that differs from existing Web media, magazines, and television.

In an era where many Web news outlets and television programs create content using social media and YouTube as their primary sources, Web media is not only no longer 'new media,' but the term 'internet news' has already taken on a strongly derogatory nuance.

Given this situation, how should individual creators and media outlets change?

The answer, which seems likely to become a major trend, is a 'shift to direct media.'

In this article, I will provide an explanation and forecast regarding these new media movements that are responding to such intense changes in the era.

The 'Shift to Direct Media' That Determined the Fate of Major Overseas Media Outlets

Although the term 'direct media' is not yet common, the mechanism itself has already achieved results at major overseas media outlets. Here, I will take the American 'New York Times' and the British 'Guardian' as representative examples.

The New York Times' Shift to Direct Media

In 2011, they introduced a digital paid subscription model. Initially, it was a 'metered paywall' system where a certain number of articles were free, and paid subscriptions were required thereafter. Through this strategy, the number of digital paid subscribers reached 1 million in 2015, and by the end of 2023, the total number of subscribers, including both digital and print, exceeded 10.36 million. This is widely recognized as a success story of modern media.

The Guardian's Shift to Direct Media

Starting in 2016, they introduced a model that solicits donations from readers. By providing all content for free while calling on readers to support journalism, they successfully stabilized their management, receiving donations from over 1 million readers by 2018.

The Failure of The Independent

On the other hand, the British daily newspaper 'The Independent' is an example of a company that faced difficulties due to a delayed introduction of a payment model. The paper missed the wave of digitalization, ended its print publication in March 2016, and has operated only as a digital version since then.

The Failure of BuzzFeed News

Furthermore, 'BuzzFeed,' which attracted attention as a viral media outlet in the late 2000s, announced the closure of its news division, 'BuzzFeed News,' in April 2023. CEO Jonah Peretti stated that they were slow to recognize the limitations of a business model that provides high-quality reporting for free, resulting in a clear contrast between success and failure.

...So, I have introduced the story of how 'major overseas media outlets had already shifted to direct media' in the 2010s.

However, the issue is the 2020s. Or rather, from 2025 onwards.

The latter half of the 2020s will be the era of 'nearly individual' direct media

The 2020s are undoubtedly the era of YouTubers and TikTokers.

To be precise, it is an era where influential individuals are leveraging video platforms like YouTube and TikTok to gain even greater influence. Furthermore, as rapidly evolving AI becomes a new factor from 2025 onwards, concerns regarding the accuracy of information are also rising.

Under these circumstances, what is expected to emerge is small-scale direct media run by 'nearly individuals'. 'Nearly individual' does not refer to mere influencers, but rather a model where media is launched and expected to be monetized and scaled by a small, elite team or on an individual basis, leveraging advancements in generative AI, the immediacy and reliability of major platforms, and rapidly maturing monetization systems.

In other words, the key point is that they are 'not individual influencers.' This involves the evolution of generative AI as a crucial element, as well as the importance of 'immediacy' in the algorithms of modern major platforms like YouTube, the growing demand for 'reliability,' and the situation surrounding rapidly maturing monetization systems.

I would like to write a separate article about the detailed reasons, but to put it simply, the rise of 'ReHacQ' can be said to be a symbol of this trend.

For now, please remember these two things.

The fact that 'the shift from major overseas media to direct media was already underway.'

And the prediction that 'this trend will accelerate in the latter half of the 2020s, and small-scale direct media will increase.'

'Web media is ending, and the era of 'nearly individual' direct media is beginning'

This might sound like a bit of a sensational headline.

However, this is a movement that should be convincing to those who have seen or are seeing the inside of the media industry.

Until now, 'Web media' has relied on traffic from search engines and social media, operating primarily on advertising revenue based on page views. While those mechanisms still exist, the current reality is that it is becoming difficult for media to survive on advertising revenue alone, and the reliability of content is easily shaken.

On the other hand, it is clear that 'direct media,' which establishes its own brand power and deepens relationships with users through direct billing and community management, has increased dramatically and grown in presence.

Furthermore, due to the progress of generative AI, the operating costs and hurdles for content production have lowered, and we are entering an era where, as long as there are excellent editors and directors, it is possible to launch, monetize, and scale media even on a small, elite team or individual basis.

In other words, 'Web media is ending' means that the conventional mass-media-dependent, PV-oriented business model is collapsing.

And, 'the beginning of the era of direct media' indicates that 'nearly individual' direct media will disseminate useful information that fits the times, avoiding the dangers of conventional influencers while utilizing the agility that major media cannot match..

This change will certainly not happen overnight, but examples of 'nearly individual' direct media have already appeared in large numbers both overseas and domestically, and it has already begun.

It might overlap with the way dinosaurs evolved into birds and are now enjoying their prosperity.

In the latter half of the 2020s, the form of media will change even more drastically, and an era will arrive where each and every one of us will have new opportunities as 'the side that broadcasts'.

And,for such 'nearly individual direct media,' the basic style here in Japan will be 'note × YouTube × X'.

I will explain the details in another article. I would appreciate it if you could follow me and wait for it!

(By the way, this is an extension of the 'anyone can be media' concept that Hiroto Kobayashi, founding editor-in-chief of the Japanese edition of Wired, CVO of Mediagene Inc., and chairman of Infobahn Inc., has been talking about for over 15 years, but it can also be considered that the era has finally begun in earnest due to the rise of 'YouTube' as the 'new television' and 'note' as the new book.)

On Saturday, March 29, at the event 'How to Live Excitingly in This Era Where the World, Media, and Culture Have Changed', which I will co-host with film/music journalist Koremasa Uno, who has achieved great success with X subscriptions, we plan to talk extensively about the current state and prospects of direct media from both of our perspectives, as well as the drastically changing cultural landscape and the music, films, and anime that are shining in it.

You can watch it not only at the venue in Nakameguro, Tokyo, but also via streaming, so I hope you will join us.

↑Please join us!

(Kenta Terunuma)