What is Poliheuristic Theory?

In political science, theory building has long incorporated findings from psychology. In this article, I would like to introduce one of those achievements: Poliheuristic theory. It is a theory constructed to describe political decision-making.

The most significant feature of poliheuristic theory is that it combines rational and psychological models into a consistent theory. According to this theory, a leader's political decision-making is carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the leader pre-emptively excludes policies that are politically unacceptable from the options, thereby minimizing the cognitive burden associated with decision-making. In the second stage, the leader compares the pros and cons of each policy option and rationally identifies the option expected to yield the greatest benefit.

The interesting aspect of this theory is that if a leader judges an option to be unsatisfactory due to domestic circumstances in the first stage, it is removed from further consideration without being carefully weighed. In other words, by the time the leader reaches the second stage, they are attempting rational decision-making, but because the options have already been narrowed down to a few, they can only exercise bounded rationality in that sense.

In 1993, Alex Mintz first presented the prototype of poliheuristic theory in a paper titled "The Decision to Attack Iraq" and applied it to explain American policy decisions during the Gulf War. It explains that President George H. W. Bush narrowed down his options based on domestic political and economic conditions rather than military balance or strategic interaction, and proceeded to initiate the war. In 1997, it was reconstructed as a more general theory of political decision-making in a co-authored paper with Nehemia Geva titled "The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision". Mintz and Geva argue that domestic conditions are the most important issues for leaders and are the key factors that dictate foreign policy.

In his 2004 paper, "How Do Leaders Make Decisions?", Mintz uses this theory to explain Turkey's foreign policy during the 2003 Iraq War. The United States requested permission to deploy 62,000 troops to Turkey to attack Iraq from the north, but the Turkish parliament did not accept this on March 1, 2003. Although Turkey could have expected $30 billion in economic aid if it allowed the passage of U.S. troops, many citizens strongly opposed the U.S. military invading Iraq through Turkish territory. However, the Turkish government subsequently allowed multinational military aircraft, including those of the U.S. military, to fly through Turkish airspace to maximize its own interests. It is believed that this was intended to minimize the costs associated with policy choices.

Mintz explains that politicians typically avoid considering the following possibilities in the first stage. All of these make it difficult to maintain a government in domestic politics.

・Threats to the survival of the administration ・Significant decline in public support for policies ・Substantial drop in approval ratings ・Prospect of losing an election ・Domestic opposition movements ・Threats to the survival of the regime ・Intra-party conflict or competition ・Internal or external challenges to the regime ・Possibility of the collapse of a coalition, government, or regime ・Threats to the leader's administration, dignity, honor, or legitimacy ・Demonstrations or riots, etc. ・Actions of veto players (e.g., major political parties in a parliamentary system) (Mintz 2004: 9)

Although it has been criticized for remaining somewhat ambiguous in parts, poliheuristic theory is useful for explaining the bounded rationality of politicians and suggests that understanding the political situation unfolding within each nation is essential for understanding international politics.

References

Mintz, A. (1993). The Decision to Attack Iraq. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37(4): 595–618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002793037004001
Mintz, A. (2004). How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(1), 3–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703261056 Mintz, A. & N. Geva. (1997). The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision. In
Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, N. Geva & A. Mintz, eds. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienne, pp. 81-101.

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