[Grok Version] Japanese Population Falls Below 120 Million (July 30, 2026)
Japanese population falls below 120 million; foreign population exceeds 4 million, reaching a record high (July 30, 2026)
According to the Population Survey based on the Basic Resident Register released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on July 29 (as of January 1, 2026), the Japanese population stood at 119,736,483, a decrease of 916,744 (0.76%) from the previous year. This is the first time the population has fallen below 120 million in 42 years, since 1984, and marks the largest decline since the survey began in 1968.
Meanwhile, the number of foreign residents reached 4,031,159, an increase of 353,696 (9.62%) from the previous year. This is the highest number since the survey began in 2013 and the first time it has exceeded 4 million. The total population, including both Japanese and foreign residents, was 123,767,642, a decrease of 563,048 (0.45%).
Details and Structural Characteristics
The decline in the Japanese population has continued for 17 consecutive years, peaking in 2009. In 2025, the number of births among Japanese citizens reached a record low of 670,467, while the number of deaths was 1,593,475. The natural decline (births minus deaths) expanded to approximately 923,008, the largest margin since the survey began. By prefecture, only Tokyo saw an increase in the Japanese population (up 0.09%), while all other 46 prefectures experienced a decline. High rates of decline were particularly notable in rural areas, such as Akita Prefecture (1.95%) and Aomori and Kochi Prefectures (both 1.70%).
The foreign population has increased for four consecutive years, with growth observed in all prefectures. The number of new arrivals from abroad in 2025 reached a record high of approximately 720,988, reflecting post-COVID recovery and expanded acceptance due to labor shortages. The ratio of the working-age population among foreigners is high, playing a certain role in labor supply. The proportion of foreigners in the total population has risen to approximately 3.26%.
Looking at the age structure, the proportion of the Japanese population aged 0–14 is 11.13% (down 0.25 percentage points from the previous year), and those aged 65 and over account for 29.79% (up 0.21 percentage points), indicating that the declining birthrate and aging population are progressing further. The working-age population (15–64) still accounts for about 60% of the total, but its absolute number continues to decline.
Background and Factors
The rapid decline in the Japanese population is primarily due to a continuous drop in the number of births. A combination of factors is at play, including a decrease in the population of marriageable and childbearing age, the trend toward later marriage or remaining unmarried, and issues related to the child-rearing environment and economic burdens. The number of deaths remains high, and with the aging of the baby boomer generation in full swing, the natural decline is expected to continue to expand.
The increase in the foreign population is driven mainly by residence statuses such as Specified Skilled Worker, Technical Intern Training, study abroad, and Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services. Acceptance is progressing in sectors with severe labor shortages, such as manufacturing, nursing care, construction, and agriculture, and the presence of foreign residents is growing even in rural areas. Separate statistics from the Immigration Services Agency (as of the end of 2025) reported over 4.12 million foreign residents, confirming that the "4 million range" has become established when combined with the Basic Resident Register figures.
Analysis
These statistics indicate that Japan has fully entered a "period of transition in population structure" from a "population-declining society." The Japanese population falling below 120 million is a psychological milestone that will affect the plans of local governments and companies. While the concentration in Tokyo continues, a structure is strengthening in rural areas where foreigners are partially compensating for the decline in the Japanese population, but maintaining communities and the sustainability of public services remain challenges.
While the increase in foreigners alleviates labor shortages, it also requires responses to social integration, Japanese language education, housing, access to medical care and education, and issues related to public safety and cultural friction. With the acceptance quota expected to expand further due to the "Training and Employment" system starting in 2027, the focus will be on building mechanisms for quality and coexistence, not just quantity.
In terms of policy, as measures to improve the birthrate are struggling to show results, a realistic approach combining the stable acceptance of foreign workers with efforts to increase the labor participation rate of Japanese citizens (women, the elderly, and people with disabilities) is inevitable. The premises for social security finance and regional revitalization must also shift to incorporate the decline and structural changes in the total population.
Social and International Impact
Population decline leads to a shrinking domestic market, a relative increase in infrastructure maintenance costs, and a decline in the vitality of local communities. On the other hand, the increase in foreigners also serves as an indicator of Japan's attractiveness in the global competition for talent. With notable inflows from countries such as China, Vietnam, Nepal, and Indonesia, the success or failure of multicultural coexistence will determine the sustainability of Japanese society.
Overall, these figures clarify a structure where "the natural decline of the Japanese population is accelerating, while the social increase of foreigners is partially offsetting it." Moving forward, it is necessary to simultaneously pursue long-term efforts to bottom out the birthrate and redesign social systems based on the premise of accepting foreigners. With this symbolic figure of falling below 120 million, the question is whether the discussion can shift from "lamenting the decline" to "adapting to change."