[Grok Version] Cuba's Population Falls Below 10 Million (August 7, 2026)

Cuba's population falls below 10 million—Exodus and massive power outages accelerate the struggle for daily life (as of August 7, 2026)

According to official Cuban statistics, the effective population at the end of 2025 was approximately 9.43 million to 9.435 million, a loss of over 1.6 million people in five years from the approximately 11 million recorded at the end of 2020. Having fallen below the 10 million mark, the country is recording the most rapid population decline in Latin America. Independent demographers estimate the actual population to be even lower, with some views suggesting around 8 million. The primary causes are a combination of an unstoppable exodus, a historic low in births, a death rate that exceeds the birth rate, and rapid aging. In parallel, massive power outages are occurring frequently nationwide, including in the capital, Havana, and the difficulty of daily life itself is accelerating the exodus.

The Reality and Structure of Population Decline

Officials from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) of Cuba announced the population at the end of 2025 to be approximately 9,434,593. A decline of over 1.6 million from the approximately 11 million in 2020 is considered a scale unprecedented in the Global South, excluding war. The number of births in 2025 was only about 68,000, the lowest since modern statistics began. The number of deaths reached about twice the number of births, and the natural population change has turned negative. The proportion of people aged 60 and over has reached 26.7%, making it the most rapidly aging country in Latin America.

Exodus is the biggest push factor. The official net migration in 2025 was a negative of approximately 245,000. In 2024, an outflow of approximately 250,000 was also officially confirmed, and independent estimates suggest the actual number of emigrants is even higher. Many of those leaving are young, in their prime working years, or professionals, which is deepening the hollowing out of the labor force. Outflow from Havana and eastern provinces is particularly noticeable, and migration by family units is also spreading. While the government relativizes this as a "global phenomenon," low wages, shortages of goods, and power outages are repeatedly cited in resident testimonies as direct motivations.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) points out that if current trends continue, the population could halve to approximately 5.6 million by 2100. If the fertility rate of 1.29 (well below the replacement level of 2.1) and aging become entrenched, the sustainability of the labor force, social security, and healthcare could be fundamentally shaken.

Massive Power Outages and the Collapse of Living Infrastructure

The direct life pressure accelerating population decline is the chronic power crisis. Entering 2026, nationwide power grid collapses have occurred multiple times. In July, there were three such incidents in a short period, and a nationwide blackout was also confirmed in early August. In addition to aging power generation and transmission equipment, fuel shortages are decisive.

Since January 2026, the oil blockade by the Trump administration has hit Cuba directly. Oil from Venezuela, which had been the primary supplier for many years, effectively ceased after the detention of President Maduro. With added pressure on countries like Mexico, the situation where fuel imports have almost stopped continues. In Cuba, which relies heavily on oil-fired power generation, generation capacity has fallen far below demand, worsening from rolling blackouts to sudden nationwide shutdowns. In the sweltering summer heat, power outages have lasted over 24 hours in some cases, making food spoilage in refrigerators, the stopping of water supply pumps, the cancellation of hospital surgeries, and internet blackouts a daily occurrence.

In the capital, Havana, voices saying that "even daily life is difficult" are following one after another. A vicious cycle is being created where work and sleep are disrupted, and the procurement of food and medicine becomes even more difficult. The tourism industry is also stagnant due to sanctions and power instability, and the decline in foreign currency income is amplifying the crisis.

Analysis—The Consequences of a Compound Crisis

This population decline is not merely a demographic issue. It is the result of overlapping economic sanctions (the long-term U.S. embargo), the inefficiency of the domestic planned economy, the failure to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the vulnerability of fuel dependence. The outflow of the young and skilled workforce increases the burden on the remaining aging society, reinforcing a negative spiral of declining productivity, further shortages of goods, and then more exodus.

While the government is proceeding with some easing of private sector liberalization and deregulation, it is difficult to fill the structural lack of energy and food self-sufficiency in the short term. A sense of exhaustion that things have reached a "limit" is spreading among residents, and cases where leaving is the "only realistic option" are increasing. On the other hand, remittances from Cubans living abroad also have an aspect of supporting the economy, so population decline does not immediately mean the collapse of the state. However, if the qualitative decline of the labor force and the deterioration of infrastructure continue, the risk that the society's very ability to reproduce itself will be damaged is high.

International Implications

The crisis in Cuba once again calls into question the effectiveness and humanitarian impact of U.S. policy toward Cuba. While the oil blockade is considered pressure aimed at regime change, the reality that it is hitting the living foundations of ordinary residents is being highlighted. Across Latin America, the increase in immigrants from Cuba is increasing the burden of acceptance on neighboring countries and could also affect regional stability.

For the international community, including Japan, it provides suggestions as a leading case study for energy security and aging societies. It is also a case study showing how rapidly external shocks (sanctions or supply disruptions) can destroy daily life in a society where population decline and infrastructure aging are progressing simultaneously.

Cuba is now at a juncture where, symbolized by its population falling below 10 million, it is being asked to balance "escaping to survive" with "maintaining the lives of those who remain." As long as power outages and shortages of goods continue, the flow of population decline will not easily stop. Including the discrepancy between official statistics and independent estimates, an accurate grasp of the reality and a long-term path to regeneration are important as matters of international concern.