Understanding the Perspective of 'The Big Short' Reveals the Next Moves in the AI Bubble, Private Credit, and Gold Markets
In February 2026, the figures who inspired the movie 'The Big Short' gathered for a panel session at the iConnections Global Alts conference in Miami. Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Meredith Whitney each shared their unique perspectives on AI, consumer credit, private credit, and the gold market. This article summarizes the key points of their discussion.
1. The 'Process' of Analysis—Why Different Conclusions Emerge from the Same Data
1-1. The Methodology of 'Pounding' the Data
Meredith Whitney explained the thought process she has used since she made a name for herself analyzing Citigroup in 2007: 'Pound the data until it's simple enough to explain to anyone. Whether it's an art teacher, a veterinarian, or an institutional investor, they should be able to understand it.'
She stated that the strength of her Citi analysis was not in complex financial models, but in narrowing it down to a 'simple leverage ratio.' She noted that the core of this approach is 'not thinking you are smarter than everyone else, and trusting that the data will lead you to the right place.'
Danny Moses added another perspective: 'I'm not the type to build a balance sheet from scratch. Even during the financial crisis, I followed the structure of incentives—who was selling what, and why.' He says this 'follow the incentives' mindset is what led him to focus on the current private credit issue.
2. The Light and Shadow of AI—'If It Works, That Becomes the Problem'
2-1. The Pick-and-Shovel Strategy
Vincent Daniel stated that while 'as a value investor, it's hard to get into high-valuation large-cap AI stocks,' he has been actively investing in the power infrastructure sector. 'To run data centers, you need power, and the flow went from natural gas to nuclear and uranium. It's a pick-and-shovel type of investment.'
2-2. The Risk if AI 'Actually Works'
The more serious point starts here. Daniel questioned, 'What happens if AI actually works?' He added, 'If you ask executives after they've had a few drinks, they all say, "I want to cut 30% of my staff with AI." They aren't spending trillions of dollars just to make better memes.'
In a scenario where AI-driven productivity gains lead directly to staff reductions, massive unemployment and deflationary pressure could occur simultaneously. 'If AI is truly working in one to three years, the scenario opposite to the current bullish narrative might become reality,' Daniel said.
Moses expressed a similar view: 'The market is currently showing healthy expansion into energy, materials, and industrial stocks, but it's a different question whether the retail sector is enjoying those benefits. The risk of a reverse wealth effect is being underestimated.'
3. The Reality of the U.S. Consumer—Inside the K-Shaped Economy
3-1. The Structure Where the Top 10% Support 50% of Consumption
The figures Whitney presented were clear: 'The top 30% account for more than two-thirds of total consumption. Meanwhile, as the CEO of Walmart pointed out, households with an annual income of $50,000 or less are truly struggling. And that group makes up two-thirds of all U.S. households.'
Moses went further, stating that 'the top 10% support 50% of consumption,' and analyzed that 'the momentum of that top tier is starting to run out of steam a little. Meanwhile, the lower tiers don't have the capacity to catch up.'
3-2. What the Surge in Home Equity Loans Indicates
What Whitney has been focusing on in recent years is the rapid expansion of borrowing collateralized by home equity. 'There is $36 trillion in U.S. housing wealth, of which about $26 trillion is accessible. The fastest-growing borrowing category is concentrated among the elderly.'
'If the economy is truly strong, why do people need to tap into their home equity?' This question suggests that the strength of consumption does not necessarily reflect healthy household finances.
3-3. What 'Buy Now, Pay Later' is Hiding
Moses pointed out that the spread of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services may be propping up consumption in ways that are difficult to capture in traditional credit data. 'It doesn't completely eliminate the problem, but it may be temporarily absorbing or masking it.' He also stated, 'One in ten men between the ages of 25 and 64 lives with their parents, which is another structural factor supporting apparent consumer power.'
4. Structural Problems in Private Credit
4-1. 'Gating' and Distorted Incentives
Daniel addressed the issue of 'gating' (redemption restrictions) in the private credit market. 'Gating itself has an aspect of protecting investors. However, it is a problem that GPs continue to receive full management fees while the gate is in effect,' he said, arguing, 'If you are going to impose a gate, management fees should be reduced from 100-150bp to around 15bp during that period.'
The structural problem lies in the liquidity mismatch. Product designs that allow for short-term redemptions against long-duration private loans are inherently contradictory. He left behind the question, 'Distributions have thinned out in order from venture to private equity to direct lending. What comes next?'
Moses pointed to structural similarities with the 2004-2005 subprime mortgage crisis. 'If you follow the incentives—who is selling that product to retail investors and why—the risks become visible.'
5. Gold and Silver—'Assets You Can Be Long While Being Bearish'
5-1. The Multifaceted Role of Gold
Moses described gold as a 'therapist.' 'Against a backdrop of structural fiscal deficits, distrust in central banks, and currency debasement, gold has functioned as the only asset you can be long while being bearish.' The current size of the gold market is estimated to be approximately $35 trillion, including both above-ground and below-ground reserves.
The fact that central banks, led by China, continue to accumulate physical gold is also a point of note. 'It is mathematically impossible for paper ETFs to fully back gold with physical assets. If requests for physical delivery concentrate, the price will move in a self-fulfilling manner.'
5-2. The New Variable of Industrial Demand for Silver
Regarding silver, he noted that interest has increased since last summer. 'EVs, solar power, data centers—silver is needed in massive quantities for everything Elon Musk is involved in. Building just one data center requires millions of ounces of silver. The divergence between industrial demand and supply is widening.'
Summary
What emerged from the Miami panel was a shared recognition of 'structural cracks behind the bull market.' While AI investment is generating real industrial demand through power infrastructure, there is a risk that AI itself could impact employment and consumption as it becomes more functional. The polarization of consumers is difficult to see on the surface of statistics, and the structural problems of private credit are quiet for now. Gold and silver continue to attract attention as assets that 'cannot be printed.' The perspectives of these three individuals, who have been watching the market from outside Wall Street, serve as a reference axis for viewing current optimism from a slight distance.
