NVIDIA and AMD's 15% Revenue-Sharing Model for AI Chip Exports to China: A New Form of Trade Envisioned by Treasury Secretary Bessent
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned on August 13, 2025, that the unprecedented agreement for Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales to China to the U.S. government could serve as a "future model." This topic can be described as a marketing strategy that depicts a relationship between the state and corporations different from the conventional one, and it suggests the possibility that similar schemes may be expanded to other industries in the future. This article provides a multi-faceted explanation of the contents of this "model" and explores its significance, impact, and concerns.
1. Overview of the Model and the Circumstances of its Formation
1-1. What are the details of the agreement?
The agreement reached by President Trump with Nvidia and AMD stipulates that, on the condition of receiving export permits for AI chips to China (Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308), the U.S. government will receive 15% of the sales.
Treasury Secretary Bessent referred to this agreement as a "unique model" while stating, "It might be possible to expand this to other industries in the future." He added, "Right now this is unique, but now that we have the model and the beta test, why not expand it?"
1-2. The underlying policy intent
Initially, the export of AI chips to China was strictly restricted for national security reasons. This agreement demonstrates a new policy implementation that secures economic benefits through revenue while easing those restrictions.
Bessent stated, "We are not selling advanced chips; these are 'lower-tier chips' with performance reduced by four to six levels," emphasizing that security concerns are low.
2. Significance of the model and expected outcomes
2-1. Strengthening fiscal revenue
Through this scheme, the U.S. Treasury could receive billions of dollars in revenue, equivalent to 15% of the revenue Nvidia alone earns from chip sales in China. Market observers have calculated, "Approximately $2 billion from Nvidia, and even more from AMD..."
2-2. Overcoming trade barriers
With access to the Chinese market becoming difficult due to strict export controls, this scheme serves as a breakthrough to ease the state of trade closure by allowing "conditional access." Bloomberg has pointed out that it "provides a path forward in the global trade war."
2-3. Maintaining international standards
The U.S. side's intent also appears to be to "maintain the influence of U.S. technology" so that standard technologies are not captured by Chinese companies (e.g., Huawei). Statements such as "We don't want Huawei to build a 'Digital Belt and Road'" and "We don't want a China-led standard to emerge in the world" indicate the direction of the policy.
3. Criticisms and concerns
3-1. The "slippery slope" risk
Market participants, including Yellen, have raised criticisms that this scheme could lead to "pay-to-play" or the "monetization of regulations." If a structure is created where specific companies gain political advantages, fair competition could be undermined.
3-2. Concerns about weakening national security
On the other hand, from the perspective of prioritizing national security, there are voices of caution that even if they are "lower-tier chips," there is a risk of technology leakage that could ultimately become the foundation for AI and military capabilities.
4. Future Developments and Key Points
4-1. Horizontal Expansion to Other Industries
Bessent himself has mentioned that 'while unique now, it is a model that can be expanded to other fields,' and attention is focused on whether government-led revenue-sharing export permits will spread to other industries.
4-2. Possibility of High-End Models like the Blackwell Chip
President Trump has also mentioned the possibility of allowing 'minor branch versions' of high-performance chips like Blackwell for China. This is raising concerns regarding further technology leakage and the direction of policy.
4-3. Legal Framework and Congressional Reaction
Arguments regarding the legal and constitutional aspects of this agreement may intensify, with critics questioning if it constitutes 'taxation' or an 'abuse of regulatory authority.'
5. Summary: What is the New Relationship Between State and Enterprise?
Core of the model: A mechanism where the government receives a portion of revenue from a company's sales in China in exchange for easing export restrictions.
Achievements: Securing fiscal revenue, restoring market access, and maintaining national security and industrial standards.
Issues: The 'pay-to-play' nature of regulations, the relaxation of national security, and a lack of political fairness.
Outlook: The potential for horizontal expansion to other industries and the deepening of legal debates will be the focus moving forward.