Tech Stocks Surge on US-Iran Ceasefire—From AI Semiconductors and Cybersecurity to Apple's Foldable iPhone

Following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran in 2026, global tech stocks saw a significant rebound. The S&P 500 rose by approximately 2.5%, while Brent crude oil experienced a dramatic market shift, briefly plunging by as much as 17%.
However, this ceasefire is extremely fragile, with reports indicating that attacks are continuing in the region. For tech investors, the key is not to be swayed by the immediate rally, but to calmly assess the structural trends of the AI investment cycle, geopolitical risks in the supply chain, and the new landscape of cybersecurity.

In this article, based on Bloomberg Tech reports, we will organize the impact of the ceasefire on the tech market, the current state of AI investment as described by Goldman Sachs fund managers, the turning point in cybersecurity indicated by Anthropic's unreleased model 'Mythos,' the latest developments regarding Apple's foldable iPhone, and the intersection of data center investment and geopolitical risk.

1. US-Iran Ceasefire and Tech Stock Rally—What Did the Market React To?

1-1. Overview of the Ceasefire Agreement and Immediate Market Reaction

Mediated by Pakistan, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Following this news, energy prices plummeted, and global stock markets, led by tech stocks, rose significantly.

The S&P 500 rose by about 2.5%, and the international price of Brent crude recorded a temporary drop of 17%, marking a historic level of volatility. In the technology sector specifically, semiconductor-related stocks (memory, logic, and storage) saw the largest gains, with some stocks recovering to levels seen before the start of the Iran conflict.

1-2. Fragility of the Ceasefire—Optimism is Premature

However, the ceasefire agreement is extremely fragile. According to reports from White House correspondent Tyler Kendall, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that 'the US military is prepared to redeploy and resume military operations,' and Vice President JD Vance also described the ceasefire as 'something to watch closely.'

In fact, even after the ceasefire agreement, a Saudi Arabian pipeline was hit by a drone attack, and attacks on the UAE and Kuwait have also been reported. The Pakistani Foreign Minister warned that 'there is a risk that Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel's operations against Lebanon continue.' Furthermore, Iranian state media reported that passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted following Israel's attack on Lebanon, and with freedom of navigation being a condition for maintaining the ceasefire, the situation remains unpredictable.

2. Goldman Sachs on 'AI Investment is in the Early-to-Mid Cycle'

2-1. The Direction of AI Infrastructure Spending Remains Unchanged

Brooke Dane of Goldman Sachs Asset Management clarified her bullish outlook on AI infrastructure investment in an interview with Bloomberg Tech.

"Investors should focus on the scale and magnitude of this shift. Our baseline outlook is that AI-related spending will accelerate and be sustained for quite a long period."

According to Dane, as far as can be confirmed through regular dialogues with the management of the Mag 7 (the seven largest tech companies), 'there is absolutely no wavering in the appetite for AI investment.' Compute is currently the most difficult resource to obtain in the market, and demand continues to grow for compute, power, and memory as essential elements for improving AI model performance.

2-2. Geopolitical Risk Has Raised the Risk Premium, But Has Not Changed the Direction

While acknowledging that geopolitical uncertainty is higher than it was four months ago, Dane pointed out that 'the risk premium has risen, but the direction and scale of investment have not changed.'

Regarding the supply chain, she noted that the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain has become more resilient compared to the early days of the pandemic, and that 'there has been no significant impact on the supply chain' even through this current geopolitical crisis. However, she indicated that efforts to improve resilience, such as building chip manufacturing capacity in more regions, will continue.

2-3. Notable Stock: Marvell's 'Overlooked Growth Potential'

As a specific investment target, Dane mentioned Marvell Technology (MRVL). She stated, 'The market does not yet fully understand what Marvell is doing,' and expressed the view that significant growth can be expected through the expansion of related products, centered on relationships with major customers such as Amazon.

Regarding semiconductor stocks in general (so-called picks-and-shovels stocks), she expressed the view that while margin structures are at historically high levels, they are sustainable as long as the close supply-demand relationship of installing compute to generate revenue for cloud vendors is maintained.

3. Anthropic's Unreleased Model "Mythos" and the Cybersecurity Turning Point

3-1. What is Mythos—A Model "Too Powerful to Release"

Anthropic has announced a program providing limited access to its powerful, unreleased AI model "Mythos" to approximately 40 tech companies. This initiative is aimed at preparing for cyberattacks.

According to Bloomberg, Mythos is not only highly capable of discovering bugs and vulnerabilities in open-source software but also possesses the ability to automatically exploit them. Consequently, the company determined that a public release would pose a risk of misuse, opting instead to provide limited access to companies most likely to be affected.

According to Anthropic's self-reporting, Mythos has discovered "thousands of vulnerabilities," a pace that reportedly exceeds the detection capabilities of existing cybersecurity products.

3-2. The Changing "Arsenal" of Cyber Defense

Theresa Payton, former White House CIO (during the George W. Bush administration) and CEO of Fortalice Solutions, commented on the significance of Mythos as follows:

"It depends on your perspective: is this an apocalypse, or is it the birth of a tool that will make cybersecurity practitioners with limited skill sets far more powerful?"

While acknowledging the potential for AI to become a powerful assistant for cyber defenders, Payton warned that "without proper guardrails, there is a risk it could fall into the hands of cyber operatives with criminal intent." She further emphasized that even with a ceasefire in place, Iranian cyber operatives have not "taken their hands off the keyboard," and vigilance against attacks on critical infrastructure must be maintained.

3-3. Implications for Investors—Structural Tailwinds for Cybersecurity Stocks

Dain also stated that he is a "convert" as a software investor, noting that while there are headwinds across the software sector, massive opportunities are expanding in the cybersecurity field. Next-generation security companies like Palo Alto Networks are positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds driven by the demand to address new vulnerabilities that emerge as AI model capabilities improve.

4. Apple's Foldable iPhone—September Launch Remains on Schedule

4-1. Refuting Reports of Manufacturing Delays

In response to a Nikkei report claiming "months of delays due to significant manufacturing and engineering issues," Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman published an update to refute the claims.

According to Gurman's reporting, the foldable iPhone is scheduled to be announced alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max during the regular September cycle, and as of this week, it is highly likely that shipments will also occur around the same time. While mass production has not yet begun, multiple sources have confirmed that "there are no significant engineering issues at this time."

4-2. Product Features and Market Impact

The following features have been reported regarding Apple's foldable iPhone:

• Durability: Setting high durability standards against the risk of screen damage from sand and dust, which is common in existing foldable smartphones.

• Reduced Crease: Utilizing new display technology developed in collaboration with Samsung to significantly reduce the crease when opening and closing the device.

• Widescreen Design: A notebook-style form factor that provides a wide screen suitable for watching videos and gaming.

The price is expected to be "very high," and it will likely be a niche product initially. However, with Samsung having offered foldable smartphones since 2019-2020, and Chinese manufacturers and Google already in the market, Apple's entry could encourage the expansion of the entire market.

5. The Frontline of Data Center Investment—Oracle's PIMCO Financing and the Wisconsin Referendum

5-1. Oracle to Secure $14 Billion Data Center Financing from PIMCO

Negotiations are underway for PIMCO to provide $14 billion (approximately 2 trillion yen) in debt financing for a massive Oracle data center planned for construction in Michigan. If realized, it would be the second-largest jumbo financing deal in the past year.

According to Bloomberg reporter Brody Ford, this financing is structured to be recorded on the books of "Related Digital," an intermediary entity handling the construction, rather than as direct debt for Oracle. Oracle is showing moves that symbolize a "new era where software companies behave like heavy industrial firms such as GE or Boeing," including equity issuance, clear disclosure of borrowing amounts, and the appointment of a new CFO from Schneider Electric.

5-2. Wisconsin Holds First-Ever Data Center Regulation Referendum in the US

Meanwhile, a municipality in Wisconsin has passed the first referendum in the US to restrict data center construction. Although a 1.3-gigawatt project currently underway in the region will not be affected by this vote, it serves as a signal of the growing tension between the expansion of AI infrastructure construction and local residents.

6. Geopolitical Risk and the Tech Supply Chain—The "Pandora's Box" Has Been Opened

6-1. Gulf Data Center Assets Targeted

Geopolitical analyst Reva Goujon offered a sober analysis in response to the optimistic mood following the ceasefire.

"Pandora's box in the Persian Gulf has been opened. Even if a long-term ceasefire is achieved, the fact remains that Iran has demonstrated both the capability and the political will to attack critical infrastructure."

Specifically, she noted that clear threats have already been made against OpenAI's Stargate project in the UAE, and attacks have occurred on AWS data centers in Bahrain and the UAE, indicating that the investment environment in this region has fundamentally changed.

6-2. Regional Diversification of the Semiconductor Supply Chain Accelerates

Helium (a rare gas necessary for cooling and stabilizing chip manufacturing) is largely supplied from the Gulf region, and fluctuations in energy prices also impact the tech industry. Against this backdrop, companies like Apple are exploring the construction of a more diversified manufacturing base, including in the Western Hemisphere, in light of both the concentration risk in Taiwan and the manufacturing risks in China.

6-3. Ripple Effects on US-China Relations—Beijing in a "More Confident Position"

Goujon further pointed out that the Iran issue is also affecting US-China relations. She analyzed that ahead of the next Beijing summit, China is in a position to clearly demand "not just tariff reductions, but the withdrawal of US technology restrictions," and that the US "miscalculation" in the Iran war has led to a decline in its negotiating power.

7. Snowflake CEO Discusses the Current State of "AI Agents"

7-1. Agents Moving from "Providing Answers" to "Doing Work"

Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy, speaking at the HumanX conference in San Francisco, discussed the company's AI agent strategy.

While the first generation of "Snowflake Intelligence" provided data-driven insights, the new "Snow Work" project aims to create an environment that can integrate the 100 tabs open in a browser, not only retrieving information but also performing tasks like sending emails and executing recommended actions.

"Coders are already using agents to write code around the clock and checking the results in the morning—that kind of usage has already begun," said Ramaswamy.

7-2. AI ROI is "well worth it"

When asked about the costs of AI implementation, Ramaswamy gave a concrete example, stating that "problems that used to take days can now be solved in 10 to 15 minutes," and noted that the returns far outweigh the costs. He mentioned that their client, United Rentals, has deployed AI apps across 1,600 branches, enabling each branch to interactively ask questions about the current state of their business.

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