Is the 'ChatGPT Moment' for Robotics Coming? Bessemer VP Shares 6 Major Predictions for 2026

From the end of 2025 through 2026, interest in the robotics industry has been rising rapidly. With new funding news breaking almost every week, many investors are questioning whether this is a bubble.

Amidst this situation, major U.S. venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP) announced six predictions for 2026 at an event titled 'Robotics Day' The insights shared by the firm's partners—who have track records of investing in companies like Anthropic and Waymo—were filled with conviction for long-term growth, even while calmly assessing the current frenzy. This article summarizes the key points and explains what investors and business professionals should keep in mind.

1. Robotics is currently in its 'GPT-2.5 moment'

1-1. Analogy with LLMs

BVP described the current state of robotics as a 'GPT-2.5 moment.' In the world of generative AI, this corresponds to the transition period from GPT-2 to GPT-3—a stage where model capabilities are improving rapidly, but a gap still remains for practical deployment.

The kitchen task robot demo released by Physical Intelligence (π) is at a level that was 'considered impossible a year ago.' However, BVP frankly admits that 'getting out of the lab remains difficult.' They suggest that it will be difficult for general-purpose models to actually operate in homes and diverse real-world environments even throughout 2026.

1-2. The emergence of scaling laws

On the other hand, there are bright signs. As represented by the 'EgoScale' paper from PI and NVIDIA, initial evidence of scaling laws is emerging by combining more egocentric data, teleoperation data, and diverse data with computational resources.

The important point is that real-world data is not the only means of scaling up. Through the use of world models and simulation data, a foundation is being created where not only well-capitalized companies but also emerging startups can participate in the competition. Waymo, a BVP portfolio company, has a track record of improving autonomous driving quality using world models, and it is predicted that similar approaches will spread to robotics.

2. Concentration of the talent market and the 'winner-takes-all' trend

2-1. Scarcity of talent

According to an internal survey conducted by BVP, more than half of the founders of U.S. robotics companies founded in the last five years that have raised over $30 million hold PhDs, and half of them come from just four universities. The AI robotics talent market is extremely concentrated.

2-2. Acceleration of the power law

This scarcity of talent drives the concentration of capital. BVP predicts that 'the power law seen in the software era (where a small number of winners dominate the market) will become even more pronounced in robotics.' Excellent talent and capital are likely to gather in a small number of companies, and the gap is likely to widen over time.

3. Value is created not just by foundation models, but by 'vertical integration'

BVP is also an investor in foundation model companies such as Anthropic, Waymo, and Perceptron, but they see that as insufficient on its own.

To make models born in the lab function in real-world environments, the following elements are essential:

• Specialized hardware and end-effectors (such as grippers)

• Establishment of a data flywheel

• Development of deployment logistics

The firm believes that significant moats are likely to emerge in these areas, and that vertical companies implementing foundation models will generate substantial value. They are also focusing on several adjacent sectors, including healthcare and life sciences, industrial robotics, and infrastructure.

4. The defense sector will be the first major exit

4-1. Geopolitical tailwinds

BVP predicts that 'the first major breakthrough in the robotics sector over the next two to five years will emerge from the defense domain.' Just as technologies like radar, GPS, and the internet were born from military needs, modern robotics is also seeing defense demand accelerate technological innovation.

4-2. Valuation premiums

As the data shows, defense robotics companies consistently command valuation premiums in each round compared to their non-defense peers. This is driven by the fact that the U.S. and China view this field as an 'existential competition' and are strengthening support for the private sector.

5. Not a 'bubble' but a 'capital shortage'—re-evaluating market size

5-1. Comparison with software

The robotics industry sees large funding rounds announced almost every week. In response to concerns about a potential 'bubble,' BVP offers the exact opposite view.

Over the past five years, only 42 robotics companies in the U.S. have raised $30 million or more. Compared to software companies during the same period, there is an 18-fold difference.

5-2. Scale of the physical labor market

Furthermore, as a decisive perspective, they cited the figure that 'total global spending on physical labor is 30 times that of spending on software.' Given this market size, the current level of investment in robotics is actually too low, and the logic is that more capital should be flowing in.

6. A growth scenario of 100 to 1,000 times in 10 years

BVP states, 'The number of robots worldwide has roughly tripled over the past decade. While there are predictions of a 50-fold increase over the next 10 years, that is an underestimate.' In the firm's view, growth of 100 times or even 1,000 times is entirely possible.

Of course, this is an optimistic scenario, and the firm itself acknowledges that technical and regulatory barriers remain. However, this is based on the judgment that three tailwinds—talent, technology, and market—are blowing simultaneously.

Summary

BVP's 2026 predictions can be summarized into the following six points.

1. Robotics is at a 'GPT-2.5 moment'—deployment outside the lab is still underway

2. The emergence of scaling laws—capital and data strategy determine competitive advantage

3. Acceleration of the power law through talent concentration

4. Significant value in vertical integration, not just foundation models

5. The defense sector could be the first major exit

6. Not a 'bubble' but a 'capital shortage'—a re-evaluation based on the scale of the physical labor market

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