Q2 2025 US VC Secondary Market Reality: A New Wave of Liquidity Expanding Beyond Unicorn Dependence

Article:

https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2025-us-vc-secondary-market-watch?utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=daily_pitch&utm_campaign=analyst_note&utm_content=q2_2025_us_vc_secondary_market_watch&utm_term=&sourceType=NEWSLETTER

In the second quarter of 2025, the US venture capital (VC) secondary market is attracting unprecedented attention. According to PitchBook, the volume of direct secondary transactions over the last 12 months reached approximately $61.1 billion. While this may seem like a large number at first glance, it represents only 1.9% of the total market capitalization of all unicorn companies (approximately $3.3 trillion). In other words, the reality is emerging that this is still insufficient to meet the liquidity demand of the entire VC market.

In this report, based on the latest data, we will explain (1) the current state of the market, (2) trading trends, (3) notable sectors, (4) the fundraising environment, and (5) future outlook.

1. Market Size and Current Status

• Annual Transaction Volume: In the 12 months from Q3 2024 to Q2 2025, the total transaction value of the US VC secondary market is estimated to be between $49.4 billion and $72.8 billion, with a median of $61.1 billion.

• Relative Scale: This is equivalent to 31.8% of the primary VC exit value (approximately $193 billion) during the same period.

• Dependence on Unicorns: It is characterized by the fact that the performance of mega-unicorns such as SpaceX and OpenAI significantly impacts market size and pushes up the average.

2. Dealmaking Trends

2-1. Linkage Between Primary Rounds and Secondaries

PitchBook points out that startups that have raised funds within the last 18 months are advantageous in both transaction volume and price. For example:

• Companies with a recent round are traded in the secondary market at prices close to their latest valuation (discount rate of 0–8.5%).

• On the other hand, companies that received high valuations during the pandemic period (2020–2022) are still able to complete trades, but are forced to accept significant discounts averaging 31.1–59.2%.

2-2. Market Concentration

• The top 20 companies account for 88.4% of transaction value, a high level of concentration that continues to persist.

• However, due to the recovery of the IPO market and other factors, a shift of funds toward mid-sized and emerging unicorns has gradually begun, and an expansion of the liquidity base is expected.

3. Notable Sectors and Policy Impacts

3-1. Overwhelming Presence of AI

• In 2025, AI-related investments account for approximately two-thirds of total VC investment value, while in terms of the number of deals, it remains at about one-third, characterized by a small number of high-quality, large-scale deals.

• Although AI is the most notable field in the secondary market as well, its actual transaction share remains low at 26.9%, which is due to the low willingness of shareholders to sell and the increase in the exercise of ROFR (Right of First Refusal) by companies.

3-2. The Rise of the Defense and Space Sectors

• Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's defense strengthening policies, defense-related startups such as Anduril have executed large-scale secondary transactions.

• According to Sydecar, 28% of SPV capital in 2025 flowed into space and defense-related sectors, which is an unprecedented high level.

4. Fundraising and the Rise of SPVs

• Secondary fund dry powder has reached $8.2 billion, more than doubling since 2022.

• Meanwhile, SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) are growing rapidly, increasing by 545% over the past two years, with funding amounts expanding by 1,000%.

• SPVs have become widespread as a means to circumvent ROFR, enabling short-term fundraising (median of 19.5 days).

5. Future Outlook

• With improved transparency and liquidity, the secondary market is expected to continue expanding.

• For investors, building strong relationships with companies and founders leads to a competitive advantage as a 'preferred secondary buyer'.

• In the long term, it is highly likely that the secondary market will evolve from a mere 'supplementary liquidity tool' into a core channel in the venture investment lifecycle.

Summary

While the US VC secondary market in Q2 2025 continues to grow in scale, it still faces challenges such as unicorn dependence and high market concentration. However, factors pushing for liquidity have become clear, including the presence of sectors with policy tailwinds like AI and defense, the rapid growth of SPVs, and signs of a recovery in the IPO market.

In other words, the secondary market is reaching a turning point where it is evolving from a 'limited supplementary existence' into a 'next-generation primary liquidity channel'.

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