Oracle's 'AI Bullishness' Moves the Market: Reading IPO Sentiment and Practical 'Beta' via CoreWeave, Klarna, and Figma — Last Week's Market Summary
This week in the U.S. stock market, the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all hit record highs simultaneously. The backdrop was Oracle's 'AI-driven' ultra-bullish outlook and an IPO market showing signs of a revival, particularly in the tech sector. In this article, drawing on the latest primary information (earnings releases/major reports), I will break down complex terminology to explain: 1) the significance of Oracle's long-term infrastructure (OCI) forecasts, and 2) the 'reality vs. hype' of notable IPOs like CoreWeave, Klarna, Circle, and Figma.
1. What does Oracle's 'OCI $144 billion by 2030' forecast indicate?
Oracle saw its RPO (remaining performance obligations + deferred revenue) surge 359% year-over-year to $455 billion in the August–October period (FY26 Q1). Furthermore, it presented a blueprint for OCI revenue to grow from '$10 billion in FY25 to $18 billion in FY26, $32 billion in FY27, $73 billion in FY28, $114 billion in FY29, and $144 billion in FY30.' This pushed the stock price up over 20% in after-hours trading and completely shifted market sentiment. The 'weight' of these numbers is backed by massive multi-cloud deals (expanding OCI availability within AWS/GCP/Azure). The key takeaway is that 'quantity (new data center construction and supply capacity)' is the bottleneck, while demand is abundant.
'OCI is +77% this year at $18 billion. Then, to $144 billion over the next four years.'
— Oracle IR (from FY26 Q1 presentation materials)
For investors, this was an event demonstrating that 'computational demand for AI inference and training' could re-accelerate the battle for cloud market share.
2. The 'Hot' IPO Market: How to Distinguish Hype from Reality
2-1. CoreWeave: The Tug-of-War Between Rapid Growth and Front-Loaded Investment
Q2 revenue was $1.2 billion (up over 200%), with a massive backlog of $301 billion. While the full-year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to $5.15–$5.35 billion, upfront costs are heavy, with capital expenditures in the $200–$230 billion range. Demand is intense, but the volatility in profit projections is the source of short-term volatility.
2-2. Klarna (KLAR): Can it absorb the 'interest rate sensitivity' of BNPL?
IPO price $40 → opening price $52 → first-day closing price $45.82 (+15%). This is still a discount from its peak private valuation. Because the revenue driver is merchant fees (e.g., 3%) and it is a model that self-funds zero-interest, ultra-short-term credit, its performance is structurally susceptible to fluctuations in short-term interest rates. Checking trends in funding costs and delinquency rates is essential for determining a fair valuation.
2-3. Circle (CRCL): The Appeal and Headwinds of Stablecoins as an Interest-Rate Business
Listed at $31 in June, conducted a secondary offering at $130 in August. Since the yield on USDC's backing assets (short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) is the source of revenue, there is a clear inverse correlation where 'rate-cutting cycles are a headwind for revenue.' The structure is solid, but barriers to entry (room for new entrants from major financial institutions) are also a point of discussion.
2-4. Figma (FIG): The 'Prime Candidate' After the Failed Acquisition, but the Fate of Ultra-High PS
Listed at $33 on 7/31 → first-day closing price $115.5 (+250%), a historic debut. However, in its first earnings report on 9/3, even with revenue up 41% ($250 million), the full-year revenue guidance of $102.1–$102.5 billion was only in line with market consensus, causing the stock price to plummet temporarily as expectations were stripped away. While high growth and progress toward profitability are certain, it left a lesson that premium valuations are strict regarding 'imperfect earnings.'
3. The Answer to 'Is it a Bubble?': Varying Temperatures by Stock, the Market as a Whole is Not Yet 'Overheated'
Oracle's large, real-demand-based RPO and CoreWeave's large-scale investment and strong demand have fundamental backing. On the other hand, businesses with high interest-rate sensitivity (BNPL/stablecoins) are prone to fluctuations in earnings outlooks depending on the policy rate scenario. Rather than the entire IPO market being a bubble, the polarization between 'real demand x supply constraint' types (AI/DC) and 'interest-rate sensitive' types (fintech) is progressing—this is my assessment at this point.
4. Understanding Portfolio Torque with 'Beta'
Beta (β) is the 'price volatility relative to the market (S&P 500 = 1.0).' A portfolio with an average β > 1 moves more than the index, while < 1 is defensive. There are strategies to chase gains in a 'synthetic leverage' style using high-β stocks, but because price movements become larger even on days without news, risk management for 'synthetic leverage' is essential. In long-short strategies, the difference between long-side β and short-side β should also be checked. Beta is not performance (alpha) but rather like 'engine displacement'—it is an indicator of how much you can accelerate if you step on the gas (take on risk).
