The Truth Behind the $11.8 Billion Black Friday: 3 Reasons Why 'Strong Sales' Don't Mean We're Out of the Woods

The first hurdle in gauging U.S. consumer trends is Black Friday immediately following Thanksgiving. In 2025, online sales reached a record-breaking $11.8 billion (Adobe Analytics). With a staggering purchase pace of $12.5 million per minute, Black Friday has fully evolved into a 'major e-commerce event fought from home.'

In this article, based on data from Adobe and Salesforce, we will explain the core of this year's holiday shopping season, including the reality of demand, the impact of rising prices, new trends driven by AI, and the 'twisting phenomenon' occurring with physical stores.

1. Online sales hit a record high—Black Friday becomes a 'day to shop from home'

1-1. Adobe: A 'new record' with $11.8 billion online

According to Adobe, online spending on Black Friday increased significantly from $10.8 billion the previous year to $11.8 billion.

Adobe stated the following in a press release:

Furthermore, Adobe predicts that Cyber Monday (December 1st) will reach $14.2 billion, which is expected to surpass Black Friday.

1-2. Salesforce's 'alternative perspective'

Salesforce data shows global Black Friday sales of $7.9 billion and $1.8 billion in the U.S. Both figures are up from the previous year. However, Salesforce also points out that an increase in sales does not necessarily mean that 'consumers bought more.'

2. 'Price hikes' and 'declining purchase volume' behind the sales growth

2-1. 'Selling' does not always mean 'being bought'

According to Salesforce data,

• Average price: +7% (year-on-year)

• Number of orders: -1%

In other words, it is a state where 'sales grew, but the number of items purchased decreased.' This clearly reflects the inflationary pressure and rising cost of living that have continued throughout 2024–25.

2-2. Adobe's annual forecast: Consumers will not reduce their 'total spending'

Adobe forecasts $253.4 billion in total online spending for this year's holiday season (compared to $241.1 billion last year). Although the total amount is increasing, actual consumer behavior shows a strong defensive trend of 'reducing the quantity purchased while focusing on necessities and discounted items.'

3. The rapid rise of 'AI shopping'—Did AI influence $22 billion in purchases?

3-1. Salesforce: 'AI influences $22 billion in sales'

Salesforce estimated that during the period from Thanksgiving to Black Friday,
AI/AI agents drove $22 billion in sales 'in some form'.

However, what this 'AI impact' refers to is ambiguous and could include a wide range of behaviors such as the following.

• AI recommendations

• AI chat-based customer support

• Personalized ad optimization

• Guidance for new features like 'AI proxy purchasing'

2025 can be positioned as the year when Generative AI x E-commerce began to show a full-scale impact on revenue.

3-2. Changes AI brings to the shopping experience

The following three trends are likely to take hold in the future.

1. AI-driven 'optimization of purchase decisions'
   → Review analysis, automated comparisons, return risk prediction, etc.

2. AI agents create 'automated shopping lists'
   AI automatically checks for 'the replenishment items you need most in a year'.

3. Real-time price monitoring and optimal timing purchases
   A world where AI presents the optimal price rather than consumers being swayed by discounts.

4. While online is strong, 'physical stores' are wavering—Why the statistics diverged

4-1. RetailNext reports 'Foot traffic -3.4%'

Data for physical stores shows notable inconsistencies.
RetailNext pointed out that the number of visitors to physical stores decreased by 3.4%, indicating a persistent trend of 'not going to stores'.

4-2. Pass_by reports '+1.17%, department stores +7.9%'

On the other hand, Pass_by data shows an overall increase of +1.17%, and +7.9% for department stores.
This discrepancy can be attributed to the following factors.

• Differences in sensors and target stores

• Differences in trends between suburbs and city centers

• The possibility that department stores are succeeding in attracting customers through 'eventization'

Physical stores are not yet 'dead,' but are in a state of seeking survival by redefining the in-store experience.

5. Summary: 2025 is the year where 'AI x Inflation x Online ≥ Physical Stores' intersect.

The key points from this year's Black Friday data are as follows.

• Online sales hit a new record of $11.8 billion, with Cyber Monday expected to expand even further.

• The increase in sales is largely driven by 'price hikes,' while 'unit volume has decreased.'

• This can be called the first year that AI has begun to significantly influence purchasing behavior.

• For physical stores, the 'regional and business model disparities' are widening to the point where data is becoming fragmented.

The 2025 holiday shopping season is a 'turning point' where existing consumer trends are being integrated while the influence of AI is rapidly intensifying.
The next focus is how much Cyber Monday on December 1st will boost consumption. There is even a possibility that the online market will reach its largest scale in history.

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